Ukrainians’ expectations low from Zelenskyy’s SA visit

Eurasia Democracy Initiative (EDI) director Peter Zalmayev says Ukrainians do not have high expectations that South African president Cyril Ramaphosa’s hosting of Volodymyr Zelenskyy will amount to anything in the direction of lasting peace in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy’s visit to South Africa on Thursday morning comes as the Russia-Ukraine war drags into its fourth year with very little prospects of a peace settlement in spite of initiatives by US president Donald Trump.

It also follows an attempt by the African Union (AU) to broker peace after a Ramaphosa-led delegation visited both countries last year.

Prior to Zelenskyy’s SA’s visit, Ramaphosa and Trump had discussed solutions to resolve the ongoing conflict in a telephonic conversation.

Addressing journalists at a joint press conference with his Ukrainian guest, Ramaphosa said South Africa is deeply concerned about the continuing conflict in Ukraine, the loss of civilian lives, damage to critical infrastructure and the deteriorating humanitarian situation.

“South Africa believes that the only path to peace is through diplomacy, inclusive dialogue and a commitment to the principles of the United Nations charter. This includes the principle that all member states shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means,” he said.

However, Zelenskyy expects South Africa to exert pressure on Russia to get closer to a favourable peace settlement.

“We believe that if more pressure is applied to Russia, we’ll be able to make our positions closer. If Russia says it is ready to cease fire, it must stop massive strikes against Ukraine. It is Ukrainians who are running out of patience, because it is us who are under attack, and no one else,” he said.

But as Zelenskyy’s jet touched down in South Africa, Zalmayev, who is on an African tour to drum up support for Ukraine, says he is keeping expectations low.

“Well, I think it has great symbolic [meaning] considering that this is the first visit of a Ukrainian head of state to the African continent, just South Africa. It actually is in response to Ramaphosa’s visit to Ukraine in the company of eight other African leaders. Having said that, though, I’m keeping our expectations low as to what exactly could be signed, other than maybe some trade agreement,” he says.

Zalmayev is also critical of a South African decision to be neutral in the ensuing conflict.

“I think this is a not a very honest position and that’s why I hope that countries continue to vote with their conscience. When you talk about neutrality in the case of Ukraine, that’s exactly what Russia wants to impose on Ukraine as part of its peace agreement being mediated by the Donald Trump administration.”

“This neutrality means no to Nato, it means no to security guarantees for Ukraine, it means a standing army of no more than 50 000 like a token army and it means essentially disarmament and that means being left vulnerable to Russia’s renewed aggression. And that’s exactly what I think Putin is angling at. That is to sign some really bad agreement with the good Ukraine,” he says.