SOUTH African experts have warned businesses and households in that country to expect prolonged load-shedding and advised economic agents to seek alternative energy sources to reduce dependence on the national grid.
This warning comes after the resumption of business operations following the easing of lockdown restrictions in South Africa that has resulted in an upswing in electricity demand, placing considerable strain on Eskom generation.
IMPower Pty Ltd, a South Africa-based engineering, procurement and project management contractor operating in the solar and energy storage industry, made the analysis.
South Africa is the largest supplier of electricity to Namibia followed by the Southern Africa Power Pool.
IMPower noted that in July this year, several concurrent breakdowns resulted in a resurgence of load-shedding, as Eskom made efforts to protect the national grid from collapsing.
By the end of July, power reductions for the year had already exceeded the levels observed in 2019, which was the worst year of load-shedding on record, indicated IMPower, adding that the unanticipated surge in load-shedding has contributed to SA’s stunted post-Covid-19 economic recovery.
“Unless real, measurable and deliberate action is implemented to support private electricity generation, incapacitating power cuts will continue for years to come, further derailing the domestic economy and stifling both local and investment from abroad,” said IMPower.
IMPower indicated that Eskom asserted that its improved maintenance programme, in pursuance of addressing decades of somehow poor performance, will ease load-shedding within 18 months.
However, experts argued that “it is abundantly clear that this goal will misfire as seen by the scope of challenges at its [Eskom] inefficient coal-fired power stations”.
Gabriel Kroes, the head engineer at IMPower, said, “As industries once again gain momentum, and the energy demand pattern normalises, this will result in an increase in load shedding incidents”.
However, in response, he said, businesses and the private sector are substantially accelerating their efforts to procure their own power.
Covid-19 has presented all businesses the opportunity to re-evaluate both their operational models and costs, and proactive organisations are establishing variable cost structures and employing agile operations in terms of energy supply, he added.
To do so, business leaders have sought to reduce unnecessary expenses by investing in cutting edge technologies to bring about improved energy savings, he explained.
Kroes explained that “it remains evident that the citizens and businesses of our nation are unable to depend exclusively on the national grid, and it, therefore, remains vital that they be supported by the government in seeking various energy alternatives, such as solar power”.
He said, as the levelised cost of solar has declined dramatically over the past years, this energy source remains far more affordable and reliable compared to its fossil fuel-powered counterpart.
According to IMP, within the past seven years, South Africa has observed a 300% increase in electricity costs.
This year alone, between a 9% and 15% increase has been observed.
The energy company indicated that such increases are unsustainable and present an additional substantial driver for companies to seek more efficient measures to provide sustainable or stable sources of electricity.
“Another significant driver is the decline in the price of renewable energy alternatives, further incentivising the shift,” the company stated.
According to the IMPower research, the future scope of solar energy for Africa is extensive and has seen exponential growth in the past few years.
The continent has experienced a growth of over 1,8 GW of new solar installations, with 1,4 GW related to photovoltaic (PV) installations, which is a considerable increase from the 786 MW that was connected in 2017.
The energy company indicated that total power derived from solar has outpaced any other fuel regarding global energy output.
Solar is the frontrunner in renewables, and solar PV additions are transcending all other fuels, including coal.
A report conducted by The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted unprecedented solar PV growth up to 2022.
