Mugabe exit strategy – Mbeki’s redemption

YOU probably saw that photo in this Tuesday’s edition of The Namibian.

It was of President Thabo Mbeki and Robert Mugabe firmly holding hands like a Hollywood couple being whisked out of an airport terminal for security reasons. It appeared under the headline: “MDC, Zanu-PF agree to talk”.The photo speaks volumes.The two presidents seem to be telling one other that ‘we are together in this crime.And if I fail, you fail too’.The agreement that was signed this week between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai is being hailed as a break-through in many quarters not least of all here in Namibia.The deal is also being described as a ‘diplomatic coup’ for Mbeki who is widely recognised as having failed in the past to end the carnage in Zimbabwe or at least to bring the two foes together.There are, however, winners and losers in this process.The biggest winner is, of course, Mugabe.Let’s face it.Uppermost in Mugabe’s mind is one question: what will I do after the end of my next term when I’m almost 90 years old? That’s a troubling question for a man who has done so much damage to his country and its people.So what Mugabe is looking for is an exit strategy – a kind of soft landing if you like.Exit strategy as it is used in the disingenuous language of the military describes a scenario where one has become entangled in a war situation which is very difficult to handle or get out of.Mugabe doesn’t have the interests of the country at heart, only his own fate, otherwise he could have agreed to these talks ages ago.What he is hoping to get now is a repeat of the strategy he used against Joshua Nkomo back in the 1980s when Zapu was thoroughly integrated within the Zanu structures and the father of Zimbabwean nationalism, Nkomo, was made to play second fiddle as one of the two vice-presidents under Mugabe.The strategy worked well because Nkomo was totally pacified and reduced to performing ceremonial duties.If he succeeds at this strategy again, then he would leave office with ‘clean’ hands and go into peaceful retirement – no questions asked.Personally, I was envisioning two possible scenarios for this saga.One was for Mugabe to go the way of the Sani Abachas or the Adolf Hitlers of this world and die under mysterious circumstances.Possibly commit suicide.The other possibility was for the army to stage a coup and install a military regime, albeit a caretaker one.The late Professor Masipule Sithole posed the question of a possible coup in Zimbabwe and his conclusion was that it was not possible.But that was back in the 1990s.If he was still alive and able to revisit the same topic today, I’m sure he would reach a different conclusion.The next big winner is, of course, Mbeki.It is Mugabe who will save Mbeki from embarrassment and humiliation.Because there is basically nothing new in the fact that Mbeki told Mugabe to make a u-turn agreeing to talk to Tsvangirai.Mugabe’s plans were thus carefully hatched and outwitted Mbeki and the rest of the world.This could have been Mbeki’s biggest foreign policy misadventure.Mbeki has already lost face back home.And although a University of Sussex graduate, Mbeki doesn’t have the same philosophical acumen of a Sekou Toure or Almilcar Cabral and thus some of his intellectual projects like the so-called African Renaissance remained vacuous and eventually came to naught as well.But hopefully the talks will work for him – assuming there is a positive outcome.The loser in this chess game is Tsvangirai.Not quite a zero-sum game though.At least he can talk and shake hands with the man who over all these years said wouldn’t talk to an ‘imperialist agent’ or worse still, would break his bones.But that’s basically it.The painful thing for Tsvangarai, I’m sure, is that he has to negotiate from a position of weakness with someone who became President through mock elections – a person whom he beat convincingly in the March poll.Ideally he and the MDC should have taken a back-seat and let the Big Man rule the country and see how he can solve his own economic mess.But maybe by agreeing to this deal and also withdrawing from the June run-off elections, Tsvangirai has helped save innocent Zimbabweans from further state-sponsored violence and brutality.And he should get credit for that astuteness.It appeared under the headline: “MDC, Zanu-PF agree to talk”.The photo speaks volumes.The two presidents seem to be telling one other that ‘we are together in this crime.And if I fail, you fail too’.The agreement that was signed this week between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai is being hailed as a break-through in many quarters not least of all here in Namibia.The deal is also being described as a ‘diplomatic coup’ for Mbeki who is widely recognised as having failed in the past to end the carnage in Zimbabwe or at least to bring the two foes together.There are, however, winners and losers in this process.The biggest winner is, of course, Mugabe.Let’s face it.Uppermost in Mugabe’s mind is one question: what will I do after the end of my next term when I’m almost 90 years old? That’s a troubling question for a man who has done so much damage to his country and its people.So what Mugabe is looking for is an exit strategy – a kind of soft landing if you like.Exit strategy as it is used in the disingenuous language of the military describes a scenario where one has become entangled in a war situation which is very difficult to handle or get out of.Mugabe doesn’t have the interests of the country at heart, only his own fate, otherwise he could have agreed to these talks ages ago.What he is hoping to get now is a repeat of the strategy he used against Joshua Nkomo back in the 1980s when Zapu was thoroughly integrated within the Zanu structures and the father of Zimbabwean nationalism, Nkomo, was made to play second fiddle as one of the two vice-presidents under Mugabe.The strategy worked well because Nkomo was totally pacified and reduced to performing ceremonial duties.If he succeeds at this strategy again, then he would leave office with ‘clean’ hands and go into peaceful retirement – no questions asked.Personally, I was envisioning two possible scenarios for this saga.One was for Mugabe to go the way of the Sani Abachas or the Adolf Hitlers of this world and die under mysterious circumstances.Possibly commit suicide.The other possibility was for the army to stage a coup and install a military regime, albeit a caretaker one.The late Professor Masipule Sithole posed the question of a possible coup in Zimbabwe and his conclusion was that it was not possible.But that was back in the 1990s.If he was still alive and able to revisit the same topic today, I’m sure he would reach a different conclusion.The next big winner is, of course, Mbeki.It is Mugabe who will save Mbeki from embarrassment and humiliation.Because there is basically nothing new in the fact that Mbeki told Mugabe to make a u-turn agreeing to talk to Tsvangirai.Mugabe’s plans were thus carefully hatched and outwitted Mbeki and the rest of the world.This could have been Mbeki’s biggest foreign policy misadventure.Mbeki has already lost face back home.And although a University of Sussex graduate, Mbeki doesn’t have the same philosophical acumen of a Sekou Toure or Almilcar Cabral and thus some of his intellectual projects like the so-called African Renaissance remained vacuous and eventually came to naught as well.But hopefully the talks will work for him – assuming there is a positive outcome.The loser in this chess game is Tsvangirai.Not quite a zero-sum game though.At least he can talk and shake hands with the man who over all these years said wouldn’t talk to an ‘imperialist agent’ or worse still, would break his bones.But that’s basically it.The painful thing for Tsvangarai, I’m sure, is that he has to negotiate from a position of weakness with someone who became President through mock elections – a person whom he beat convincingly in the March poll.Ideally he and the MDC should have taken a back-seat and let the Big Man rule the country and see how he can solve his own economic mess.But maybe by agreeing to this deal and also withdrawing from the June run-off elections, Tsvangirai has helped save innocent Zimbabweans from further state-sponsored violence and brutality.And he should get credit for that astuteness.