How Namibia Can Grow from 3 to 10 million People

Namibia is one of Africa’s largest countries – twice the size of Kenya – but has just 3.02 million people.

That’s a little more than half the population of Nairobi’s metro area of around 5.5 million.

In today’s global economy, numbers matter. People create markets, and markets attract investors.

Take Nigeria. Despite corruption, insecurity and poverty, it still pulls in billions of dollars in investment a year, mainly because it has over 200 million people.

Namibia has peace, stability and resources, but its market is simply too small to match such investment. 
Namibia’s natural growth rate will not achieve the leap to 10 million.

World Bank data shows a birth rate of about 26 per 1 000 and a death rate of roughly 7 per 1 000.

At present, that means about 78 000 births and 21 000 deaths annually – a net gain of 57 000 people a year.

Over the next decade, it would add fewer than 600 000 people, putting Namibia at only about 3.6 million by 2035.
The gap must be filled through immigration.

GROWTH ENGINE

History proves immigration can drive rapid growth. The United States, Canada, Australia and the United Arab Emirites were transformed by newcomers who brought skills, capital and ambition.

Even South Africa’s agriculture and manufacturing were shaped by migrants who stayed and invested.

Namibia has what many seek: Peace, working infrastructure and vast, underused land rich in minerals and tourism potential.
Across Africa its reputation is strong. Many would move here if the doors were opened.

The country should seize this moment while it is still young and attractive to skilled workers, investors and adventurous families.
This appeal won’t last forever. Other countries are also competing for talent.

To reach 10 million by 2035, Namibia would need about 640 000 new arrivals a year alongside its natural growth.

These should be carefully targeted: Skilled professionals, entrepreneurs and investors ready to build industries and create jobs.

Policies must make settling, working and investing easy while ensuring Namibians benefit first.
A common concern is that foreign investors will take profits back home.

Offering permanent residency or citizenship to those who invest and commit to the country encourages them to reinvest locally, creating lasting businesses instead of short-term ventures.

It’s natural to guard land and opportunities, but complete closure slows progress.

Growth requires exchange of skills, capital and ideas. This isn’t surrender; it’s strategy.

BUILDING RESILIENCE

Namibia’s economy relies heavily on South Africa for trade and finance. If those links were suddenly cut, the shock could be severe overnight.
A bigger, stronger domestic market is the best insurance.

A population of 10 million would mean more customers, more businesses, more jobs and more tax revenue for hospitals, schools and infrastructure.

It would also bring innovation, diversity and a stronger voice in regional affairs.

Namibia has the land, the peace and systems that work.

What it needs is more people with the drive, skills and resources to build its next chapter.

Better to share and grow together than hold on tightly and watch the future slip away. The time to act is now.

• Elvis Mboya, president of the Namibia-Kenya Chamber of Commerce and a journalist in Namibia and Kenya. 

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