24 Hours That Shook the Kremlin

Yevgeny Prigozhin may have called off his attempted coup just before his Wagner Group mercenaries reached Moscow, but the rebellion may nonetheless have fatally undermined Vladimir Putin’s regime.

Days, weeks, or even months might pass before the cracks are fully exposed, but make no mistake: Every crisis that ends with only the thinnest of resolutions, or none at all, further diminishes Putin’s stature and thus whatever support he has left among Russia’s elites.
His rivals are probably already eyeing the throne.

In the short run, Putin could spin the uprising’s failure in his favour.

The masses did not rise up to join the rebellion, as Prigozhin predicted, and Russia’s armed forces stood with the Kremlin, though only half-heartedly, as demonstrated by the fact that Chechen troops had to be sent to Rostov-on-Don to confront Prigozhin’s mercenaries.

But, in time, it will become clear that none of this reflects the Putin regime’s strength.

Neither side, it seems, was confident it could defeat the other.

OFF THE HOOK

Though Prigozhin vehemently criticised Russia’s military brass, he denied he was attempting a coup.

Instead, he insisted the Wagner advance on Moscow was a “march of justice” for the soldiers who had died in Ukraine because of the Russian military’s poor leadership – and even that mission was quickly cut short.

Prigozhin knew he could not sustain an assault on Moscow.

It did not help that Prigozhin never quite won over the Russian public.

Most Russians have not embraced Prigozhin’s unhinged rhetoric. His vision of cleansing Russia of corruption and indecision with blood lacks broad appeal.

Putin’s response to the mutiny was hardly that of a powerful leader or even a skilled tactician.

While he condemned the coup and vowed to punish those involved “brutally”, the response did not come quickly enough, and his rhetoric came across as more panicked than menacing.

This was a man reacting to events, not controlling them.

Worse, far from crushing the mutiny, he let Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko negotiate a deal that effectively lets Prigozhin off the hook, and criminal charges against him will be dropped.

To some Russians, the deal makes Putin look weak, as it seems to have been presented to him as a fait accompli.

It is not inconceivable Putin could still position himself as a great peacemaker. But he would need Russia’s elites to rally behind him.

DOUBLE JEOPARDY

Putin’s silence since Prigozhin cut his deal with Lukashenko suggests he doesn’t know, even now, whether he can count on his cronies’ loyalty.

Moreover, people are eager to hear him explain why Prigozhin the ‘traitor’ is being pardoned at all.

The coup may be quashed, but leadership is still lacking.

Putin still has some allies, of course, such as Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen Republic who pledged to send troops to fight off the coup-makers.

And Russian leaders – including Duma chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, and most regional governors – spoke in defence of the regime.

But opposition to the uprising among Russia’s elites was less about supporting Putin than about opposing Prigozhin.

While they disagree with a number of Putin’s decisions – including isolating Russia and strengthening its dependence on China – and increasingly view him as weak and erratic, he is still a safer bet than the volatile head of an army of mercenary thugs and convicts.

At the same time, it seems likely Prigozhin does have some Russian leaders on his side.

For example, he may have an arrangement with general Aleksei Dyumin, governor of the Tula region, next to Rostov-on-Don.

Some in Moscow believe Dyumin – who used to be in charge of Putin’s security, and at one point was considered one of his potential successors – negotiated with Lukashenko on Prigozhin’s behalf, and possibly even promised the Wagner boss a military position in the future.

It would be easy to deliver on that promise if, as some suggest, Dyumin becomes Russia’s new defence minister, replacing Prigozhin’s principal enemy, Sergei Shoigu.

Under Dyumin’s leadership, Russia would undoubtedly adopt an even more brutal approach to the Ukraine war, much to Prigozhin’s satisfaction.

CHALLENGERS

More ominous for Putin, Prigozhin’s rebellion could well have been assisted, and even organised, by forces close to the Kremlin or by members of Russia’s domestic security agency, the FSB, who blame Putin for allowing the Ukraine war to drag on.

Even if this is not the case, the fact that Prigozhin publicly defied Putin, and lived to tell the tale, could inspire new attempts to dethrone Russia’s top leadership.

So, who might seize the throne?

Two obvious possibilities are Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, and his son Dmitry, the minister of agriculture.
Another is prime minister Mikhail Mishustin, who deliberately appeared on television hard at work during the crisis, while Putin reportedly flew to safety in Valdai, far from the Kremlin.

Then there is Dyumin, as well as Moscow’s mayor Sergei Sobyanin, who controls his own powerful armed force.

This does not mean Putin’s demise is imminent.

There have been whispers about Russia’s elites wishing to replace him for a long time now. But change never seems to come.

Just as Prigozhin backed down from a fight he wasn’t sure he would win, Putin’s potential challengers seem to lack confidence that they can defeat their rivals.

• Nina L Khrushcheva, professor of international affairs at The New School, is the co-author (with Jeffrey Tayler) of ‘In Putin’s Footsteps: Searching for the Soul of an Empire Across Russia’s Eleven Time Zones.
  – Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2023