Swapo: continuity or stagnation?

WHILE Namibians are still digesting the results of the past weekend’s Swapo Electoral College, analysts do not appear surprised by the outcome of the elections.

They say the results showed that the voting block from the current National Assembly and Central Committee members was effective in protecting their interests.The Namibian asked a number of political commentators what they thought about the outcome and if it reflects stagnation or continuation. ‘It is not a Young Turk’s revolt,’ said Bill Lindeque, who added that there is no major shift of direction because only a few ministers and deputies did not make it high up on the list.Phanuel Kaapama said it is a process of ‘controlled change’ as opposed to ‘total change’.He added that if one looks at the list of 1989, less than 15 per cent or five of those who pulled the most votes are in the top 20 of the current list.Kaapama was particularly interested in the fact that Kazenambo Kazenambo, Pohamba Shifeta, Tjekero Tweya, Petrina Haingura and Utoni Nujoma all made it to the top 20 of the latest Electoral College list.Although the five are all deputy ministers, they were new entrants in 2004.’Now the President cannot ignore promoting some of them to senior Cabinet positions,’ he argued.Lindeque shares Kaapama’s sentiments about continuation, but is disappointed at the small number of women who made it onto the list.Another political analyst, Graham Hopwood, said the list demonstrated the popularity of Swapo stalwarts from the 1960s and 70s compared to any new faces.’The results of the Electoral College are an indication of a stability at the core of Swapo,’ he said.The danger, Hopwood said, is that Swapo’s stability can turn into stagnation.He added that the continuation trend evident in the list is a clear indication that it is difficult for fresh political talent to break through the ranks.Hopwood said the results may cause a problem for Swapo in five to 10 years’ time, as it is not clear where politicians at Cabinet level will come from in 2015.’If the veterans of the party were more willing to retire at around 65, then it would leave more space for young politicians to come through gradually,’ Hopwood said.’It is interesting that it is the President and not the SPYL that has introduced the most new blood into the list through his 10 choices,’ said Hopwood.However, he feels in the past some of these presidential choices have turned out to be one-term politicians who have had little impact.’It will be interesting to see whether the likes of Lucia Witbooi, Sylvia Makgone and Willem Isaack will be able to gain prominence and show that they have long-term future as Swapo politicians,’ he said.Kaapama was impressed with Alexia Ncube’s performance.Ncube was one of the six non-voting MPs picked by the President and has made it to number 53 on the list, ahead of her colleagues who held deputy ministerial positions even beating some ministers. All three analysts are keen to see who Pohamba will pick for his list of six come March next year.