Rally for Democracy and Progress: The New Kid On The Block

THE new party registered in early November with the Electoral Commission of Namibia documents a split within Swapo, which was already visible since latest mid-2004 (and had an incubation period before it became obvious to the outside world).

With the dismissal of Hidipo Hamutenya and the marginalisation of others considered to be his supporters, as well as the expulsion of Jesaya Nyamu, the issue was on the table. The smooth registration process of the new party suggests that it was a well-planned and prepared move.From now on, assuming that several prominent Swapo members will join the new party sooner or later, Swapo will never be the same again.One needs to wait for the political programme of the new party, however, before coming to a more substantiated conclusion with regard to its alternative potential.In the absence of more substantial factual information, it is impossible to judge if the RDP is a genuine political-programmatic alternative or only more of the same.Only time will tell.IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE It was rather easy for Swapo after 1999 to maintain its political hegemony when the first dissenting voices led by Ben Ulenga, Ignatius Shixwameni and Tsudao Gurirab broke away from their party to form the CoD in a rather haphazard way.Some observers (including myself) had then overestimated the degree of dissenting voices in Swapo who would have been prepared to cast a vote for another party.This time, with the further party-internal confrontational history since then, it will not be as easy to compensate for dissidents and to eliminate the new political force coming from Swapo’s home base.The RDP is the result of a deep rift and internal power struggles, during which factions have formed their own lineages and alliances.The new party will not simply snatch votes from those who have already voted for other parties than Swapo.It stands better chances to get support from a considerable number of disillusioned, frustrated and disappointed Swapo members, who so far had been – in the absence of any alternatives outside of Swapo – in support of those not toeing the Nujoma party line.The new party has two years’ time to prepare for the elections and stands a chance to become a political force to reckon with.It is difficult at this stage, however, to estimate which degree of popularity it will ultimately gain in the rural areas of the North.Much will depend on who exactly will join the new party or offer it some kind of other measurable support.Much will also depend on the response from Swapo itself.The political opposition in Namibia has been in complete disarray for years and is more so than ever before.The new party might offer some of the scattered opposition politicians a new political home.The opposition landscape will certainly regroup to some extent and the new party stands a realistic chance to emerge as the most relevant political alternative to Swapo – which however does not mean a lot in itself, given the dismal record of opposition politics in Namibia so far.The new party – depending on the figureheads it can present – might for the first time be a serious challenge to Swapo’s hegemony.This will, however, again not only depend on the new party-political office bearers and their ability to convince and mobilise, but also on the other, more subtle voices rendering as least indirect support.One does not need to join the new party or advertise it.Under the current circumstances it is already good enough if Swapo veterans with a meticulous track record in the anti-colonial struggle openly declare that it is the democratic right of anyone to form a new party.This shows a different notion of democracy than the authoritarian mindset of the Nujoma faction and renders support to the kind of political permissiveness and tolerance that is a necessary positive ingredient in a plural society.SCOPE FOR DEMOCRACY Democracy in Namibia can benefit from this.But it is again too early to make a well-based judgment.The new party marks -more so than the CoD – a watershed in Namibian politics.Much will depend on the further politics exercised by Swapo.Its politicians can still shape to a large extent the political culture and climate in the country as elected lawmakers until the end of 2009 when the next parliamentary and presidential elections are due.This means the next two years will be strategically decisive if democracy is aborted or consolidated.If Swapo is afraid of losing some power to the new party and seeks to avoid this possibility by systematically reducing the opportunities to campaign among voters and to manipulate and rig instead of providing the necessary space and liberty for a free and fair vote, we will see a sad degeneration into more authoritarian structures and politics, as we could witness in other countries too.If Swapo should resist the temptation, democracy (and with it the Namibian citizens and the public interest, but even Swapo itself) can only benefit.It is interesting to note the timing of the new party registration, just a few weeks ahead of the Swapo congress.This will now be the overriding issue discussed, and all decisions taken will directly refer to the new political reality created.Many had expected that the new party might emerge as a result of the party congress.Instead, it makes a point that the congress is not any longer the relevant point of reference.Much remains to be seen, particularly with regard to those who will openly take sides and have so far not been visibly in the Nujoma camp or the Nyamu camp.It will also be interesting to see who is showing his/her orientation prior to the Swapo congress.It might well be that not many come out now, but that the intention was merely to create the new party before the congress as a fait accompli.This impacts on the congress, no matter who has until then showed an inclination to join the new party.To that extent the timing could have been carefully chosen to set the agenda in a different way than planned by those who had orchestrated the congress setting until now.But there will be several office bearers who might also find it difficult to position themselves within the new political environment.If they show preference to the new party, they might risk their job, especially if in a higher public office or in the diplomatic service.We know from previous experience that those suspected to be “disloyal” to the party (meaning in the first place its president) at times had to pay a high price.The witch-hunt will most likely go on if not intensify, and that would not bode well for Namibian democracy and render a disservice to the so-called (and always proclaimed) “national interest”.* Henning Melber is Executive Director of the Dag Hammarskjoeld Foundation in Uppsala/Sweden.He had joined Swapo in 1974.The smooth registration process of the new party suggests that it was a well-planned and prepared move.From now on, assuming that several prominent Swapo members will join the new party sooner or later, Swapo will never be the same again.One needs to wait for the political programme of the new party, however, before coming to a more substantiated conclusion with regard to its alternative potential.In the absence of more substantial factual information, it is impossible to judge if the RDP is a genuine political-programmatic alternative or only more of the same.Only time will tell.IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE It was rather easy for Swapo after 1999 to maintain its political hegemony when the first dissenting voices led by Ben Ulenga, Ignatius Shixwameni and Tsudao Gurirab broke away from their party to form the CoD in a rather haphazard way.Some observers (including myself) had then overestimated the degree of dissenting voices in Swapo who would have been prepared to cast a vote for another party.This time, with the further party-internal confrontational history since then, it will not be as easy to compensate for dissidents and to eliminate the new political force coming from Swapo’s home base.The RDP is the result of a deep rift and internal power struggles, during which factions have formed t
heir own lineages and alliances.The new party will not simply snatch votes from those who have already voted for other parties than Swapo.It stands better chances to get support from a considerable number of disillusioned, frustrated and disappointed Swapo members, who so far had been – in the absence of any alternatives outside of Swapo – in support of those not toeing the Nujoma party line.The new party has two years’ time to prepare for the elections and stands a chance to become a political force to reckon with.It is difficult at this stage, however, to estimate which degree of popularity it will ultimately gain in the rural areas of the North.Much will depend on who exactly will join the new party or offer it some kind of other measurable support.Much will also depend on the response from Swapo itself.The political opposition in Namibia has been in complete disarray for years and is more so than ever before.The new party might offer some of the scattered opposition politicians a new political home.The opposition landscape will certainly regroup to some extent and the new party stands a realistic chance to emerge as the most relevant political alternative to Swapo – which however does not mean a lot in itself, given the dismal record of opposition politics in Namibia so far.The new party – depending on the figureheads it can present – might for the first time be a serious challenge to Swapo’s hegemony.This will, however, again not only depend on the new party-political office bearers and their ability to convince and mobilise, but also on the other, more subtle voices rendering as least indirect support.One does not need to join the new party or advertise it.Under the current circumstances it is already good enough if Swapo veterans with a meticulous track record in the anti-colonial struggle openly declare that it is the democratic right of anyone to form a new party.This shows a different notion of democracy than the authoritarian mindset of the Nujoma faction and renders support to the kind of political permissiveness and tolerance that is a necessary positive ingredient in a plural society. SCOPE FOR DEMOCRACY Democracy in Namibia can benefit from this.But it is again too early to make a well-based judgment.The new party marks -more so than the CoD – a watershed in Namibian politics.Much will depend on the further politics exercised by Swapo.Its politicians can still shape to a large extent the political culture and climate in the country as elected lawmakers until the end of 2009 when the next parliamentary and presidential elections are due.This means the next two years will be strategically decisive if democracy is aborted or consolidated.If Swapo is afraid of losing some power to the new party and seeks to avoid this possibility by systematically reducing the opportunities to campaign among voters and to manipulate and rig instead of providing the necessary space and liberty for a free and fair vote, we will see a sad degeneration into more authoritarian structures and politics, as we could witness in other countries too.If Swapo should resist the temptation, democracy (and with it the Namibian citizens and the public interest, but even Swapo itself) can only benefit.It is interesting to note the timing of the new party registration, just a few weeks ahead of the Swapo congress.This will now be the overriding issue discussed, and all decisions taken will directly refer to the new political reality created.Many had expected that the new party might emerge as a result of the party congress.Instead, it makes a point that the congress is not any longer the relevant point of reference.Much remains to be seen, particularly with regard to those who will openly take sides and have so far not been visibly in the Nujoma camp or the Nyamu camp.It will also be interesting to see who is showing his/her orientation prior to the Swapo congress.It might well be that not many come out now, but that the intention was merely to create the new party before the congress as a fait accompli.This impacts on the congress, no matter who has until then showed an inclination to join the new party.To that extent the timing could have been carefully chosen to set the agenda in a different way than planned by those who had orchestrated the congress setting until now.But there will be several office bearers who might also find it difficult to position themselves within the new political environment.If they show preference to the new party, they might risk their job, especially if in a higher public office or in the diplomatic service.We know from previous experience that those suspected to be “disloyal” to the party (meaning in the first place its president) at times had to pay a high price.The witch-hunt will most likely go on if not intensify, and that would not bode well for Namibian democracy and render a disservice to the so-called (and always proclaimed) “national interest”.* Henning Melber is Executive Director of the Dag Hammarskjoeld Foundation in Uppsala/Sweden.He had joined Swapo in 1974.