Outlook for Africa’s key economies

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) outlook for key sub-Saharan economies:

South AfricaGrowth is seen at 1,1 per cent in 2009, a fraction of the five per cent average of the previous three years. However, the pace should pick up to 3,5 per cent in 2010, thanks to an expected stimulus from the World Cup soccer tournament.NigeriaReal GDP growth is expected to weaken to four per cent in 2009 from 6,1 per cent last year due to continued low oil prices and production and the effects of the global crisis on Nigeria’s frail financial system.KenyaKenya should grow five per cent and 4,3 percent in 2009 and 2010 respectively, bouncing back from the political violence that marred 2008. However, externally linked sectors such as commercial farming, manufacturing and tourism may take a hit from the global slowdown.GhanaGrowth is likely to dip below six per cent in 2009 due to weakening exports, although it should pick up again in 2010 as the country starts pumping crude oil. UgandaAfter a seven per cent growth in 2008 in spite of the global turmoil, Uganda is likely to register 5,6 per cent expansion in 2009 amid falling external demand for its food exports and reduced remittance flows. Expansion in 2010 is forecast at 6,1 per cent.CongoThe slowdown that began in the final quarter of 2008 is expected to continue given the falling world demand and prices for Congolese exports such as copper, cobalt and diamonds.Overall the economy is expected to contract 0,6 per cent in 2009, but growth should pick up in 2010 to 2,6 per cent.TanzaniaTanzania is forecast to dip below the seven per cent annual growth notched up over the last five years due to a decline in tourism revenue and earnings from exports such as coffee, tea and sisal.MauritiusThe tiny but open island economy is likely to see growth slip to three per cent in 2009 from 4,8 per cent last year, with the key textile and tourism sectors taking a big hit from recession in the United States and Europe.-Nampa-Reuters