North Korea test-fires nukes

SINGAPORE – Military reprisals against North Korea remain unlikely despite Pyongyang’s claim that it carried out a nuclear test, US credit ratings firms said yesterday.

The test, announced by Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency, could spark harsher economic sanctions on the Stalinist nation but not a military strike from major powers, Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s said. South Korea’s debt ratings remain unaffected by Pyongyang’s move “because the prospect of a nuclear test leading to economic sanctions severe enough to hasten the collapse of the North Korean regime, or worse, spark a full-scale military conflict, are still remote,” S and P analyst Takahira Ogawa said.He noted that the North Korean regime’s survival remains the priority of that country’s leaders.”Consequently, while the leadership’s actions will continue to be provocative, they are aimed at deterring what it perceives as an invasion threat and also at extracting more concessions from the US and South Korea,” he said.”The goal is not to expose the regime to the risk of military reprisals.Indeed it is, ultimately, not in North Korea’s interests to raise the level of brinkmanship too far too quickly, as the more it escalates existing tensions the fewer bargaining cards it holds.”Washington has imposed financial sanctions on Pyongyang and the nuclear test is likely to provoke even harsher punitive actions like the quarantining of North Korean vessels, travel bans, trade sanctions and restrictions on investment and remittances, Ogawa said.”Such sanctions would tighten the financial squeeze on North Korea’s leadership and increasing the risk of a collapse in the regime,” he said, adding that this remains “an unlikely prospect in the near-term.”Another US credit ratings firm, Moody’s, said North Korea’s test will likely lead to an expansion of sanctions and affect the geopolitical stability on the Korean peninsula.Nampa-AFPSouth Korea’s debt ratings remain unaffected by Pyongyang’s move “because the prospect of a nuclear test leading to economic sanctions severe enough to hasten the collapse of the North Korean regime, or worse, spark a full-scale military conflict, are still remote,” S and P analyst Takahira Ogawa said.He noted that the North Korean regime’s survival remains the priority of that country’s leaders.”Consequently, while the leadership’s actions will continue to be provocative, they are aimed at deterring what it perceives as an invasion threat and also at extracting more concessions from the US and South Korea,” he said.”The goal is not to expose the regime to the risk of military reprisals.Indeed it is, ultimately, not in North Korea’s interests to raise the level of brinkmanship too far too quickly, as the more it escalates existing tensions the fewer bargaining cards it holds.”Washington has imposed financial sanctions on Pyongyang and the nuclear test is likely to provoke even harsher punitive actions like the quarantining of North Korean vessels, travel bans, trade sanctions and restrictions on investment and remittances, Ogawa said.”Such sanctions would tighten the financial squeeze on North Korea’s leadership and increasing the risk of a collapse in the regime,” he said, adding that this remains “an unlikely prospect in the near-term.”Another US credit ratings firm, Moody’s, said North Korea’s test will likely lead to an expansion of sanctions and affect the geopolitical stability on the Korean peninsula.Nampa-AFP