It’s official: We’re in a recession

NAMIBIA already plunged into a recession during the second and third quarters of last year and narrowly missed it during the fourth, mainly because of the struggling fishing and manufacturing sectors, according to the latest national figures.

The gross domestic product (GDP) on a seasonally adjusted basis shrunk by 3,7 per cent from April to June, followed by a further contraction of 4,6 per cent from July to September, the Preliminary National Accounts released by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) show.This, based on the internationally accepted definition that a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, means that Namibia was in recession for those six months.In the fourth quarter, the GDP on a seasonally adjusted basis grew by 0,6 per cent.The CBS’s release of national account figures, the first in more than a year, was met with scepticism by local private sector economists, who for some time have been maintaining that their data is ‘unreliable’. Reinhold Kamati of the CBS, while acknowledging that some discrepancies may exist, fired back that they are the official producer of statistics in Namibia. Furthermore, the CBS’s quarterly figures are mainly supposed to be ‘an indication of what the economic pattern in Namibia is likely to be’, Kamati told The Namibian yesterday afternoon.Irrespective of their differences, both the CBS and the majority of local economists share the same bleak view for the economy: Namibia is probably bound for recession this year.According to the CBS’s data, Namibia’s primary industries, registering recessionary growth of minus 1,6 per cent for the entire 2008, pulled the country down.One of the main drivers was the fishing sector, which stayed in negative territory for three consecutive quarters. The industry plunged by a massive 56,6 per cent in the last quarter. In the second and third quarters, it contracted by 5,9 per cent and 16,9 per cent.The global economic storm also hit Namibia’s secondary industry in the form of the manufacturing sector, which shrunk by 52,9 per cent in the third quarter and 32 per cent the following. Hotels and restaurants were the next to suffer. This sector, which forms part of the tertiary industry, contracted by 24,9 per cent in the third quarter and 22,7 per cent in the fourth.During the last three months of 2008, mining and quarrying, as well as wholesale and retail trade, fell victim to negative growth. The sectors recorded minus 3,9 per cent and minus 1,5 per cent respectively.Kamati said the CBS is finalising the figures for the first quarter of 2009.Meanwhile, most local economists are forecasting recession figures for the year.The darkest prediction comes from Old Mutual Namibia Group Economist Robin Sherbourne, who expects that the GDP will shrink by at least 1,6 per cent. Then follows Investment House Namibia (IHN) with their forecast of minus 0,4 per cent growth, and Simonis Storm Securities Research Director Emile van Zyl gearing himself for anything between zero and minus one per cent growth this year.The Bank of Namibia’s (BoN) forecast still stands at 0,4 per cent growth, but it might lower it later in the year.On the optimistic side are FNB Namibia and the Namibian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (NCCI), who both have their hopes up for economic growth of 1,5 per cent in 2009.jo-mare@namibian.com.na