The closure of a major tourism enterprise in Namibia’s //Huab Conservancy following the displacement of its resident black rhino population is a direct consequence of nearby mining activities.
A similar, and potentially more disruptive, conflict is now escalating at the Goantagab mine in the neighbouring Sorris Sorris Conservancy.
The mine, which has begun blasting operations, is located within a joint management area critical to the Sorris Sorris, Doro !Nawas and Uibasen Twyfelfontein conservancies.
This area is the foundation for a thriving local economy built almost entirely on its unique wildlife.
As a researcher specialising in wildlife economies, my analysis indicates that the environmental impact assessment (EIA) permitting this industrial project dangerously underestimates the value of the existing tourism industry.
As such, it represents an imprudent handling of risk to a proven, sustainable economic model.
ANALYTICAL DEFICIENCIES
The debate over the Goantagab mine should not be framed as a choice between conservation and development.
It is a practical economic question about which of two competing development paths offers a more beneficial future for the region.
The EIA, however, fails to provide the basis for such a comparison.
It makes vague claims about mining’s potential but offers no specific data on projected local jobs or revenues.
More critically, the report completely neglects to quantify the substantial economic benefits of the existing tourism industry.
In 2023 alone, tourism operations in the three conservancies generated N$8 million in fees and an additional N$18 million in direct payments to local households, supporting 208 staff members.
A credible assessment would have used this as a baseline for a rigorous cost-benefit analysis.
A proper analysis would also have revealed the superior quality and sustainability of the tourism economy.
For instance, tourism’s economic multiplier effect in Namibia is more than double that of mining, indicating it does a far better job of stimulating broader economic activity.
The jobs it creates are part of a system committed to local capacity building, evidenced by significant investments in staff training and clear career progression.
This is in contrast to the unsubstantiated job promises of the mine.
Furthermore, the wildlife economy provides far greater gender equity, with women holding 38% of tourism jobs in the conservancies compared to just 17% in Namibia’s mining sector.
RESILIENCE AND REVENUE
A responsible assessment would also have weighed the long-term economic stability of each sector.
Analysis of revenue data from 2011 to 2023 shows that tourism revenue in the region has been four to six times more stable than the volatile global tin market upon which the mine would depend.
The tourism sector’s remarkable resilience, demonstrated by its rapid recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic, provides a reliable economic foundation for communities.
Relying on a commodity-based project with no long-term projections, while jeopardising a proven and stable local economy, represents a significant and poorly considered economic risk.
The risks posed by the Goantagab mine extend far beyond its immediate boundaries.
The decision to approve this project based on a deficient EIA sets a dangerous national precedent for Namibia’s entire community conservation programme, a cornerstone of the country’s sustainable development strategy covering nearly 60% of communal land.
Many conservancies have mining exploration licences pending within their borders.
If this becomes the standard for approval, the entire community-based natural resource management framework becomes vulnerable, jeopardising a system that has contributed over N$13 billion to Namibia’s net national income since 1990.
PRUDENCE NEEDED
The existing wildlife economy in the region is not a hypothetical asset; it is a measurable, stable and inclusive economic reality.
To jeopardise it for a project approved on the basis of a fundamentally incomplete assessment is an indefensible gamble.
A prudent path forward requires a pause in mining activities until a comprehensive and independent reassessment is conducted.
Only then can a decision be made that is based on a full understanding of the long-term implications for local communities and Namibia’s broader commitment to sustainable development.
- Alex Chidakel is a wildlife economy researcher with a doctorate in interdisciplinary ecology.
In an age of information overload, Sunrise is The Namibian’s morning briefing, delivered at 6h00 from Monday to Friday. It offers a curated rundown of the most important stories from the past 24 hours – occasionally with a light, witty touch. It’s an essential way to stay informed. Subscribe and join our newsletter community.
The Namibian uses AI tools to assist with improved quality, accuracy and efficiency, while maintaining editorial oversight and journalistic integrity.
Stay informed with The Namibian – your source for credible journalism. Get in-depth reporting and opinions for
only N$85 a month. Invest in journalism, invest in democracy –
Subscribe Now!
