What could happen in South Africa’s election

JOHANNESBURG – South Africans vote in parliamentary and provincial elections tomorrow with the ruling African National Congress likely to win a big majority in the fourth national ballot since the end of apartheid in 1994.

But the ANC under Jacob Zuma may struggle to maintain its two-thirds majority that allows it to change the constitution after the emergence of a breakaway party and a possible improved showing by the official opposition Democratic Alliance.Here are possible scenarios for the outcome of the vote.ANC WINS MORE THAN TWO-THIRDS MAJORITYThe party will keep its stranglehold over parliament and maintain the power to amend the constitution at will, knowing it will get the votes in the National Assembly to pass any constitutional amendments to entrench its power.Keeping its two-thirds support – the ANC won 70 per cent of the vote in 2004 – will be a major boost and show that opposition parties remain unable to tap into ANC support, despite widespread poverty and the breakaway party set up by leaders loyal to ousted president Thabo Mbeki.It will also be a personal victory for Zuma, who still faces questions over graft charges that were dropped just weeks before the election, highlighting his broad appeal.ANC leaders have repeatedly said they do not plan to make changes to what is an international respected constitution, and have not overly used the right over the past four years to push through amendments to suit themselves.But keeping that right gives them a powerful weapon if needed.Analysts say having such power in parliament makes the institution a rubber stamp for the ANC and weakens the country’s multi-party democracy.THE ANC WINS THE VOTE BUT BY LESS THAN TWO-THIRDSThis could be the most likely, as well best case scenario for foreign investors, who may want the certainty of an outright win while welcoming a move to a more vibrant democracy.The new breakaway party, the Congress of the People (COPE), will likely take some support away from the ANC and the opposition DA may add slightly to its numbers under new leader Helen Zille.Any major dent in the ANC’s support will be a blow to the image of the party and to Zuma personally, possibly indicating some disillusionment with the ANC’s new leaders and the removal of Mbeki.However, the ruling party will still have vast power in parliament, given that legislation only needs a simple majority to pass through the two houses – the National Assembly and National Council of Provinces.The party will likely play down the result but anything less than a 60 per cent win can be seen a heavy blow to the party that led South Africa out of apartheid in 1994.It may also usher in a bigger effort to meet the needs of millions of poor South Africans.A strong showing for COPE could point to the ANC’s more affluent members losing confidence in it, indicating a loss of support among the business community, as well as unhappiness with the increasing clout of its labour and communist allies.Likewise, a big jump for the DA will signal that that party is expanding its reach beyond its predominantly white and mixed-race base.THE ANC WINS LESS THAN 50 PER CENT OF VOTEPlummeting support for the ANC will signal a dramatic shift in South Africa’s political landscape and may even lead to a new government.The ANC will be forced to court other parties to ensure its choice for president – Zuma – is elected by parliament.The winner of a vote in parliament will become president and will be free to choose a cabinet.With a win of close to 50 per cent, the ANC may be safe as it should be able to persuade smaller opposition groups, attracted by cabinet posts, to join it in a coalition government.However, such a result could also signal a change of government, with opposition parties combining to oust the ANC. With smaller parties’ support base limited, a big swing would come from a significant jump in votes for the DA and a big maiden showing for COPE.The two parties could join forces with other smaller parties to take over government.The ANC may try to bring COPE back into its fold, but given the animosity and fierce criticism by some ANC leaders against the dissidents, COPE leaders may not be willing to help out. – Nampa-Reuters