Towards A New Political Panoply

POLITICAL pundits have been trying to discern the systemic consequences of the succession process currently unfolding in the ruling party, Swapo.

Given that it will take but a miracle for Swapo to lose at the next presidential elections, analysis is fitting in trying to piece together the possible working of a system, yet untested in Namibia. Thus, this footnote in its contribution to that question, posits that political succession in the Swapo Party will have interrelated aspects:who will be the top leader, which generation seizes the reins of power and how government will be structured, and most importantly how the new resident in State House will relate to the Swapo Party Presidency in the short term, or bluntly put, Sam Nujoma.Students of leadership politics would note that the succession pattern in Swapo is very similar to the one employed successfully in China under Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Xemin and in recent years to Hu Jintao.Equally so, we have seen the same features in the succession strategy used by Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore or Mahathir’s Malaysia.Thus, its employ in the Swapo Party is not at all surprising for historical and ideological reasons.The three presidential nominees are to bring contrasting leadership thinking to State House.In the same vein, their relationship with the Party president will not be homogeneous.Therefore, it is important to put in perspective what the three are likely to bring to the highest office and how their leadership would shape relations with the Swapo headquarters, in particular the President of the party.First, Hifikepunye Pohamba is likely to play a transitional role and would possibly rule for one five-year term before passing power to a third generation leader.Ideologically, he is of the same generation as President Nujoma.In fact, Pohamba is what Raul is to El Commandante Castro, a brother and comrade or what the former French Prime Minister Alain Juppe is to President Jacques Chirac, a loyal homme d’etat (statesman).Apart from this simplistic analogy of being a loyal foot soldier, he was nominated by President Nujoma for reasons which deserve illumination.When political leaders retire, they think about their legacies and how they want to be remembered.In that sense, leaders like Sam Nujoma do not retire from leadership, they simply move from the ‘first line’ to the ‘second line’ of leadership.In the process of choosing their own successors, they simply want to avoid a political Frankenstein who would launch an attack on their legacies.The presidency of the country presents ‘first line leadership’ and the party presidency will be the ‘second line’ for President Sam Nujoma.Thus, President Nujoma would, under a Pohamba presidency, be a senior minister without portfolio, something akin to Lee Kuan Yew or China’s Jiang Xemin who remains the chairman of the powerful Party Military Affairs Commission.In a real sense, Nujoma will remain an emblematic figure looking over the shoulder of his protegee, review major policy documents and will likely intervene in times of controversies and crisis.The ‘second line’ will be a platform to consolidate such an enduring legacy.Under Pohamba, our politics would shift from an all single-powerful leader to a two-level leadership, an axis between State House and the party president.This relationship would not only be limited to Nujoma’s tenure as president of the party, but could go well beyond Nujoma’s exit of the party presidency.Pohamba’s leadership style, his views, his education, practically none elsewhere other than the Swapo party, provides Nujoma with an ideal successor.Therefore, the Pohamba presidency is likely to provide the best symmetries between State House and the Swapo headquarters.This in itself does not mean that Pohamba will not beat the successor’s dilemma.Of the three candidates, Nahas Angula is evidently the ‘Benjamin’ in terms of a political career in Swapo.His leadership bid is not only audacious, but very speculative and has never been publicly known until recently, apart from some leaders of the student movement in the 1990’s who privately touted his name as an ideal successor.His leadership style is intellectually interactive and the presidency is likely to be an arena of policy thinking, but implementation would be another question.He has appeared personally non-threatening and is unlikely to impose a top-bottom leadership style, but would rather seek consensus and build coalitions with senior leaders through a flat and accessible presidency.His campaign themes of creating a knowledge-based society and social justice are theoretically attractive.Whether they are accessible to Namibians in desperate need of jobs is another question.They are possibly borne out of his idealism and that would be the drive of his presidency, possibly in the tradition of Brazil under Lula da Silva.Conversely, his views on a whole range of issues are clearly the result of his ‘thinking out of the box.’ He has at times not shied away from bravely criticising some of the government policy initiatives in parliamentary debates.Angula’s independence in thinking would evidently make him at odds with the party president in some cases.In addition, his nomination by the Swapo struggle veteran Andimba Toivo ya Toivo, suggest that he has multiple political patrons and this would demand astute political management on his part.Even so, the fact that governance under Nahas Angula would be collective, he is far from being a political Frankenstein.Therefore, his relationship with the paramount leader is likely to be one of respect, least because of the generational gap.Contrary to the two finalists, Hidipo Hamutenya has cultivated patiently or impatiently a subterranean leadership bid running for years.He would rank a distant third in the pecking order if Nujoma had to assign numbers to the bids.Despite political adversity, he never moved his eyes away from the biggest trophy in politics.That would suggest that he has various scenarios worked out for the presidency and has already a cabinet in waiting.His post-independence political career, his interactions with the ‘high level symbolic analyst of the Washington Consensus’ has made him a universal pragmatist in sync with the demands of a globalising world.He is likely to create a technocratic thrust in the presidency, and the cabinet’s economic and key delivery clusters would be occupied by specialists or pragmatists, similar to President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa.Politically, he has in recent years skilfully won the allegiance of certain Swapo leaders and the way his machine organised his nomination at the Politburo was a real coup de theatre (excellent stage management).It gave his campaign the broader legitimacy it lacked and has thus tacitly confirmed that his government would symbolically not be a departure from the norm set by Nujoma, at least in the interim.However, one would be quick to point out that the relations between the state presidency under Hamutenya and the party presidency would be one of cohabitation a namibienne.Cohabitation invokes bad images in French political life and is conceptualised as a highly competitive actor constellation of divided government.The President at the Elysee who during unified government is the uncontested leader of the executive, is confronted with a hostile Prime Minister at Hotel Matignon who is the true head of government.Both actors compete for public support and governance becomes a contested arena.In the case of Namibia, it could be a Hamutenya presidency and the president of the Swapo party competing for the heart and soul of the party, particularly policy direction and loyalty.However, from a policy perspective, such a scenario is highly unlikely unless the party machinery is administratively strengthened in terms of policy development and monitoring.Thus, leaving State House with a mandate to implement policy initiatives developed collectively at Party level.Be that as it may, his tenure in State House would be pro-active, decisive and he would use the powers, the legitimacy and prestige of office to assert his vision.Whilst Nujoma is revered as the man who founded a Namibian state and let the Namibian people stand tall, Hamutenya would want to be remembered as the one who created an economically prosperous country.The length and speed with which Hamutenya would be prepared to implement such a vision, thus his own claim to greatness, could create tensions with the party president.Alternatively, he would buy time and wait for the party president to quit the party presidency before he actualises his own political agenda.In view of the fact that stability and unity has been the mantra of the Swapo political elite, Hamutenya would not want to risk adversely by launching a direct political challenge on the person of Sam Nujoma.Hamutenya’s presidency would either confirm our longstanding misunderstanding of the renaissance’s leading political theorist, Niccollo Machiavelli’s philosophy through The Prince, or find the good Machiavelli through our reading of the ‘Discourses on Livy’.Whoever the future president will be, he cannot achieve the stature of the maximum leader in the persona of Sam Nujoma.Similarly, only the stresses of revolution could produce maximum leaders in the tradition of Castro, Guevara, Mao and Deng to name but a few.Nujoma is more of an institution and a certain public awe shapes the political environment.As the three candidates are counting the days before the final sprint, they know well that the political obituary of Sam Nujoma is not yet written with his departure from the ‘first line.’ Their tenure at State House will have to create the right equilibrium with the man affectionately known as the ‘old man.’ That would be the right basis for the success of this new delicate political panoply.If the future resident of State House chooses the alternative, he would have to be reminded of what a senior Swapo leader recently remarked to this article’s author:’Never write off Sam Nujoma, the man is a fighter, a soldier limited by his own mortality’.* The writer of this article holds an M.A in Political Science from the University of Stellenbosch, South Africa.He is a past Senior Special Assistant to the Prime Minister.He is currently preparing for doctoral studies in political science at the Universite de Paris-Sorbonne, France.Thus, this footnote in its contribution to that question, posits that political succession in the Swapo Party will have interrelated aspects:who will be the top leader, which generation seizes the reins of power and how government will be structured, and most importantly how the new resident in State House will relate to the Swapo Party Presidency in the short term, or bluntly put, Sam Nujoma.Students of leadership politics would note that the succession pattern in Swapo is very similar to the one employed successfully in China under Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Xemin and in recent years to Hu Jintao.Equally so, we have seen the same features in the succession strategy used by Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore or Mahathir’s Malaysia.Thus, its employ in the Swapo Party is not at all surprising for historical and ideological reasons.The three presidential nominees are to bring contrasting leadership thinking to State House.In the same vein, their relationship with the Party president will not be homogeneous.Therefore, it is important to put in perspective what the three are likely to bring to the highest office and how their leadership would shape relations with the Swapo headquarters, in particular the President of the party.First, Hifikepunye Pohamba is likely to play a transitional role and would possibly rule for one five-year term before passing power to a third generation leader.Ideologically, he is of the same generation as President Nujoma.In fact, Pohamba is what Raul is to El Commandante Castro, a brother and comrade or what the former French Prime Minister Alain Juppe is to President Jacques Chirac, a loyal homme d’etat (statesman).Apart from this simplistic analogy of being a loyal foot soldier, he was nominated by President Nujoma for reasons which deserve illumination.When political leaders retire, they think about their legacies and how they want to be remembered.In that sense, leaders like Sam Nujoma do not retire from leadership, they simply move from the ‘first line’ to the ‘second line’ of leadership.In the process of choosing their own successors, they simply want to avoid a political Frankenstein who would launch an attack on their legacies.The presidency of the country presents ‘first line leadership’ and the party presidency will be the ‘second line’ for President Sam Nujoma.Thus, President Nujoma would, under a Pohamba presidency, be a senior minister without portfolio, something akin to Lee Kuan Yew or China’s Jiang Xemin who remains the chairman of the powerful Party Military Affairs Commission.In a real sense, Nujoma will remain an emblematic figure looking over the shoulder of his protegee, review major policy documents and will likely intervene in times of controversies and crisis.The ‘second line’ will be a platform to consolidate such an enduring legacy.Under Pohamba, our politics would shift from an all single-powerful leader to a two-level leadership, an axis between State House and the party president.This relationship would not only be limited to Nujoma’s tenure as president of the party, but could go well beyond Nujoma’s exit of the party presidency.Pohamba’s leadership style, his views, his education, practically none elsewhere other than the Swapo party, provides Nujoma with an ideal successor.Therefore, the Pohamba presidency is likely to provide the best symmetries between State House and the Swapo headquarters.This in itself does not mean that Pohamba will not beat the successor’s dilemma.Of the three candidates, Nahas Angula is evidently the ‘Benjamin’ in terms of a political career in Swapo.His leadership bid is not only audacious, but very speculative and has never been publicly known until recently, apart from some leaders of the student movement in the 1990’s who privately touted his name as an ideal successor.His leadership style is intellectually interactive and the presidency is likely to be an arena of policy thinking, but implementation would be another question.He has appeared personally non-threatening and is unlikely to impose a top-bottom leadership style, but would rather seek consensus and build coalitions with senior leaders through a flat and accessible presidency.His campaign themes of creating a knowledge-based society and social justice are theoretically attractive.Whether they are accessible to Namibians in desperate need of jobs is another question.They are possibly borne out of his idealism and that would be the drive of his presidency, possibly in the tradition of Brazil under Lula da Silva.Conversely, his views on a whole range of issues are clearly the result of his ‘thinking out of the box.’ He has at times not shied away from bravely criticising some of the government policy initiatives in parliamentary debates.Angula’s independence in thinking would evidently make him at odds with the party president in some cases.In addition, his nomination by the Swapo struggle veteran Andimba Toivo ya Toivo, suggest that he has multiple political patrons and this would demand astute political management on his part.Even so, the fact that governance under Nahas Angula would be collective, he is far from being a political Frankenstein.Therefore, his relationship with the paramount leader is likely to be one of respect, least because of the generational gap.Contrary to the two finalists, Hidipo Hamutenya has cultivated patiently or impatiently a subterranean leadership bid running for years.He would rank a distant third in the pecking order if Nujoma had to assign numbers to the bids.Despite political adversity, he never moved his eyes away from the biggest trophy in politics.That would suggest that he has various scenarios worked out for the presidency and has already a cabinet in waiting.His post-independence political career, his interactions with the ‘high level symbolic analyst of the Washington Consensus’ has made him a universal pragmatist in sync with the demands of a globalising world.He is likely to create a technocratic thrust in the presidency, and the cabinet’s economic and key delivery clusters would be occupied by specialists or pragmatists, similar to President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa.Politically, he has in recent years skilfully won the allegiance of certain Swapo leaders and the way his machine organised his nomination at the Politburo was a real coup de theatre (excellent stage management).It gave his campaign the broader legitimacy it lacked and has thus tacitly confirmed that his government would symbolically not be a departure from the norm set by Nujoma, at least in the interim.However, one would be quick to point out that the relations between the state presidency under Hamutenya and the party presidency would be one of cohabitation a namibienne.Cohabitation invokes bad images in French political life and is conceptualised as a highly competitive actor constellation of divided government.The President at the Elysee who during unified government is the uncontested leader of the executive, is confronted with a hostile Prime Minister at Hotel Matignon who is the true head of government.Both actors compete for public support and governance becomes a contested arena.In the case of Namibia, it could be a Hamutenya presidency and the president of the Swapo party competing for the heart and soul of the party, particularly policy direction and loyalty.However, from a policy perspective, such a scenario is highly unlikely unless the party machinery is administratively strengthened in terms of policy development and monitoring.Thus, leaving State House with a mandate to implement policy initiatives developed collectively at Party level.Be that as it may, his tenure in State House would be pro-active, decisive and he would use the powers, the legitimacy and prestige of office to assert his vision.Whilst Nujoma is revered as the man who founded a Namibian state and let the Namibian people stand tall, Hamutenya would want to be remembered as the one who created an economically prosperous country.The length and speed with which Hamutenya would be prepared to implement such a vision, thus his own claim to greatness, could create tensions with the party president.Alternatively, he would buy time and wait for the party president to quit the party presidency before he actualises his own political agenda.In view of the fact that stability and unity has been the mantra of the Swapo political elite, Hamutenya would not want to risk adversely by launching a direct political challenge on the person of Sam Nujoma.Hamutenya’s presidency would either confirm our longstanding misunderstanding of the renaissance’s leading political theorist, Niccollo Machiavelli’s philosophy through The Prince, or find the good Machiavelli through our reading of the ‘Discourses on Livy’.Whoever the future president will be, he cannot achieve the stature of the maximum leader in the persona of Sam Nujoma.Similarly, only the stresses of revolution could produce maximum leaders in the tradition of Castro, Guevara, Mao and Deng to name but a few.Nujoma is more of an institution and a certain public awe shapes the political environment.As the three candidates are counting the days before the final sprint, they know well that the political obituary of Sam Nujoma is not yet written with his departure from the ‘first line.’ Their tenure at State House will have to create the right equilibrium with the man affectionately known as the ‘old man.’ That would be the right basis for the success of this new delicate political panoply.If the future resident of State House chooses the alternative, he would have to be reminded of what a senior Swapo leader recently remarked to this article’s author:’Never write off Sam Nujoma, the man is a fighter, a soldier limited by his own mortality’.* The writer of this article holds an M.A in Political Science from the University of Stellenbosch, South Africa.He is a past Senior Special Assistant to the Prime Minister.He is currently preparing for doctoral studies in political science at the Universite de Paris-Sorbonne, France.