Timeframe for WTO deal keeps slipping further

GENEVA – The timeframe for a Doha round trade deal, set six years ago to boost the world economy and lift millions out of poverty, is slipping further.

Trade diplomats and officials now say if all goes well an outline deal is likely in January or February next year, a preliminary signing in June or July, and a final deal in 2009. Some say the latest delays are a good sign – the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 151 members are at last talking seriously.Countries from the United States to Cuba are seeking more time to get to grips with thorny agricultural issues.”This is the only time that people are asking for more time because they are making progress,” said one trade official.India’s Trade Minister Kamal Nath says the boost to global confidence from a new trade deal would be an “excellent antidote” to the uncertainty caused by the global credit crunch.Poor countries do not want to contemplate the world trade free-for-all that would ensue from the breakdown of the global trading system.”Even if the WTO is far from perfect I think it would be much worse without the WTO,” said Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim, who convened a meeting of developing countries in Geneva last Thursday to take stock of the negotiations.For even as developing countries ratchet up their demands for cuts in rich country farm subsidies and agricultural tariffs, and ask for more exceptions to the cuts in industrial tariffs rich countries demand of them, many realise that a Doha deal would be better sooner rather than later.MILESTONE MISSED “The reason to do this now is that the US administration seems to want the deal, but who knows about the next one?” said one senior negotiator.The next major milestone in the negotiations is when the chairmen of the key talks on agriculture and industry issue revisions to the compromise texts they produced in July.These have been the basis of intense negotiations for the past 11 weeks.The revisions will reflect these talks.One technical but highly contentious issue is how to treat farm products that countries deem sensitive and which are therefore subject to smaller cuts in tariffs than general.To allow rich countries time to provide crucial consumption data on these products, the chairman of the agriculture talks, New Zealand’s WTO ambassador Crawford Falconer, said at the start of this month that he would delay his revision.WTO insiders say this revision is now likely in December, or even in the early part of next year.”We were talking about the end of November,” said one senior trade official.”Clearly we’re not talking about the end of November any more.”Agriculture is the key to the negotiations.Falconer has a consensus on export competition, but the big issues of tariff and subsidy cuts, and exceptions to them, remain open.Negotiators say a deal on industrial goods could be wrapped up quickly, but poor nations say they are holding off on committing to opening up their markets for manufactures until they know what they will get from rich countries in farming.Nampa-ReutersSome say the latest delays are a good sign – the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 151 members are at last talking seriously.Countries from the United States to Cuba are seeking more time to get to grips with thorny agricultural issues.”This is the only time that people are asking for more time because they are making progress,” said one trade official.India’s Trade Minister Kamal Nath says the boost to global confidence from a new trade deal would be an “excellent antidote” to the uncertainty caused by the global credit crunch.Poor countries do not want to contemplate the world trade free-for-all that would ensue from the breakdown of the global trading system.”Even if the WTO is far from perfect I think it would be much worse without the WTO,” said Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim, who convened a meeting of developing countries in Geneva last Thursday to take stock of the negotiations.For even as developing countries ratchet up their demands for cuts in rich country farm subsidies and agricultural tariffs, and ask for more exceptions to the cuts in industrial tariffs rich countries demand of them, many realise that a Doha deal would be better sooner rather than later.MILESTONE MISSED “The reason to do this now is that the US administration seems to want the deal, but who knows about the next one?” said one senior negotiator.The next major milestone in the negotiations is when the chairmen of the key talks on agriculture and industry issue revisions to the compromise texts they produced in July.These have been the basis of intense negotiations for the past 11 weeks.The revisions will reflect these talks.One technical but highly contentious issue is how to treat farm products that countries deem sensitive and which are therefore subject to smaller cuts in tariffs than general.To allow rich countries time to provide crucial consumption data on these products, the chairman of the agriculture talks, New Zealand’s WTO ambassador Crawford Falconer, said at the start of this month that he would delay his revision.WTO insiders say this revision is now likely in December, or even in the early part of next year.”We were talking about the end of November,” said one senior trade official.”Clearly we’re not talking about the end of November any more.”Agriculture is the key to the negotiations.Falconer has a consensus on export competition, but the big issues of tariff and subsidy cuts, and exceptions to them, remain open.Negotiators say a deal on industrial goods could be wrapped up quickly, but poor nations say they are holding off on committing to opening up their markets for manufactures until they know what they will get from rich countries in farming.Nampa-Reuters