Third-term plan for Nigerian leader risks backfiring

LAGOS – A campaign to extend Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo’s tenure has raised such fierce opposition that the man once lauded for reform now risks tainting his image and causing chaos, analysts said at the weekend.

Obasanjo’s election in 1999 marked the end of three decades of almost continuous military dictatorship in Africa’s oil giant. His agenda of economic reform had raised hopes of a new epoch for the corrupt, mismanaged nation.National Assembly lawmakers return to Abuja this week to debate a proposal by his supporters to rewrite the constitution allowing him to stand for a third term in elections next year.This has prompted comparisons by critics with old-style African despots clinging to power.Analysts say his foot soldiers are damaging his legacy of reform amid widening accusations of blackmail and bribery.”One of the biggest problems with the third term is the perception that the government, which staked its reputation on anti-corruption, has become a big instrument of corruption to push the agenda,” said John Adeleke, an independent analyst.”It is a dangerous game that is backfiring.”Analysts and lawmakers say it is unlikely that the proposed amendment can attract the two-thirds majority it needs in the national and state assemblies to pass into law.But even if it does get through, observers say the process has become so discredited that the resurgent opposition may not accept the outcome, leading Africa’s most populous nation towards a violent implosion.Obasanjo’s supporters argue that a third term would allow him to continue his reforms, but the plan has inflamed regional and ethnic divisions across multi-ethnic Nigeria.Lawmakers complain of threats of investigation by anti-fraud police unless they back the motion.The leader of the third term camp in the assembly, Deputy Senate President Ibrahim Mantu, is himself being probed for bribery, although he denies any wrongdoing.”If the National Assembly passes the amendment, everyone will conclude that we were bought,” a senior National Assembly member said, asking not to be named.”They will need soldiers to protect this place.”Obasanjo has avoided saying whether he wants to stay on.His ruling party has told members to back the amendment, and the security forces have cracked down on opponents.But the party has split over the issue, and Vice President Atiku Abubakar has called for Obasanjo to resign for trying to subvert the constitution against the popular will.”There is such widespread public rejection that if the scheme succeeds through manipulation, the politics of power erosion will move so fast that the country could collapse into anarchy,” said Pat Utomi, an economist, professor and banker.Many in the predominantly Muslim north feel the top job should go to one of them in 2007 after eight years of Obasanjo, a Christian from the southwest.Dozens died in riots across the north in February, which sparked reprisal killings in the southeast.In the oil-producing Niger Delta, which has never produced a head of state despite providing the bulk of the nation’s wealth, anger over the third term plan is one factor behind deadly militant attacks which have cut oil exports by a quarter.United States intelligence chief John Negroponte has said he feared “major turmoil and chaos” in the US’s fifth largest oil supplier if Obasanjo confirms a desire to stay on.As lawmakers gather in Abuja to debate the amendment this week, some say they have been threatened with violence if they back a third term against the wishes of their constituents.But many are also vulnerable to blackmail, bribery or both.- Nampa-ReutersHis agenda of economic reform had raised hopes of a new epoch for the corrupt, mismanaged nation.National Assembly lawmakers return to Abuja this week to debate a proposal by his supporters to rewrite the constitution allowing him to stand for a third term in elections next year.This has prompted comparisons by critics with old-style African despots clinging to power.Analysts say his foot soldiers are damaging his legacy of reform amid widening accusations of blackmail and bribery.”One of the biggest problems with the third term is the perception that the government, which staked its reputation on anti-corruption, has become a big instrument of corruption to push the agenda,” said John Adeleke, an independent analyst.”It is a dangerous game that is backfiring.”Analysts and lawmakers say it is unlikely that the proposed amendment can attract the two-thirds majority it needs in the national and state assemblies to pass into law.But even if it does get through, observers say the process has become so discredited that the resurgent opposition may not accept the outcome, leading Africa’s most populous nation towards a violent implosion.Obasanjo’s supporters argue that a third term would allow him to continue his reforms, but the plan has inflamed regional and ethnic divisions across multi-ethnic Nigeria.Lawmakers complain of threats of investigation by anti-fraud police unless they back the motion.The leader of the third term camp in the assembly, Deputy Senate President Ibrahim Mantu, is himself being probed for bribery, although he denies any wrongdoing.”If the National Assembly passes the amendment, everyone will conclude that we were bought,” a senior National Assembly member said, asking not to be named.”They will need soldiers to protect this place.”Obasanjo has avoided saying whether he wants to stay on.His ruling party has told members to back the amendment, and the security forces have cracked down on opponents.But the party has split over the issue, and Vice President Atiku Abubakar has called for Obasanjo to resign for trying to subvert the constitution against the popular will.”There is such widespread public rejection that if the scheme succeeds through manipulation, the politics of power erosion will move so fast that the country could collapse into anarchy,” said Pat Utomi, an economist, professor and banker.Many in the predominantly Muslim north feel the top job should go to one of them in 2007 after eight years of Obasanjo, a Christian from the southwest.Dozens died in riots across the north in February, which sparked reprisal killings in the southeast.In the oil-producing Niger Delta, which has never produced a head of state despite providing the bulk of the nation’s wealth, anger over the third term plan is one factor behind deadly militant attacks which have cut oil exports by a quarter.United States intelligence chief John Negroponte has said he feared “major turmoil and chaos” in the US’s fifth largest oil supplier if Obasanjo confirms a desire to stay on.As lawmakers gather in Abuja to debate the amendment this week, some say they have been threatened with violence if they back a third term against the wishes of their constituents.But many are also vulnerable to blackmail, bribery or both.- Nampa-Reuters