The tricky issue of political succession

THE Swapo congress that starts in Windhoek this morning will be the most challenging in the party’s history.

Liberation hero Sam Nujoma, who has dominated post-Independence politics, is expected to hand over the party presidency to a successor, who must be elected over the next four days. Names of candidates are being traded almost like shares on a stock exchange.Unless Nujoma pulls another rabbit out of the hat and stays on “due to popular demand”, or because of the “crisis” in the party, Namibia might see a compromise candidate elected to the vice presidency of the party.At the moment former Prime Minister Hage Geingob remains the only candidate proposed by the Politburo for the position.As the Central Committee was meeting last night, there was still no indication whether a rival would throw his or her hat into the ring for the vice presidency.During the hype in 2004, when the party had to consider three presidential candidates for the first time since its formation in 1961, it was a contest played out between three, all of them from the dominant tribe.They were the Prime Minister Nahas Angula, Lands Minister Hifikepunye Pohamba and freshly sacked Foreign Minister Hidipo Hamutenya.Given the deep rifts that emerged in 2004 with the attempt to usher in “more democracy” into Swapo with a choice for candidates, and rumours deliberately spread about Hamutenya, the party has been more cautious in its approach this time round.This year the Politburo wisely decided to nominate one candidate for president – Pohamba – and one for the vice presidency and even announced this at a press conference two weeks ago.Swapo Secretary General Dr Ngarikutuke Tjiriange even instructed regional party offices not to make their choice of presidential candidates public, although the Khomas Region and a few others ignored this and announced that they wanted 78-year-old Nujoma to continue to lead the party.As speculation grew stronger about a possible life presidency for Nujoma and rumours circulated about some prominent Swapo members wanting to resign as a result, Nujoma called a Politburo meeting in early October and announced he would not stand for re-election, squashing the life presidency speculation.He might however go for the presently dormant position of national chairman, which was mothballed after David Meroro, now deceased, resigned from that post several years ago.Analaysts believe, however, that it is important that the “presidential twin-pack” of Nujoma and Pohamba – at the helm of the country since March 2005 – ends and that Pohamba also becomes president of Swapo at the end of this congress.According to party insiders, Nujoma initially wanted his successor as Head of State to be a non-Oshiwambo speaker, to counter increasing criticism that Swapo is primarily a tribal party.But lobbyists inside Swapo, and traditional tribal chiefs in the four O Regions, allegedly urged him that it should be an Oshikwanyama speaker.They cited the reason that the Oukwanyama made up the largest contingent in the People’s Liberation Army of Namibia (Plan) during the struggle years.But, the person mooted as the next Head of State after Pohamba, if the succession plan is anything to go by, would be Geingob.As the party’s Vice President in waiting he would be the logical heir.There is strong speculation that Lands Minister Jerry Ekandjo is a “last-minute” contestant for the post.The succession must be clear, so that the nation knows now who will take over in 2010, should Pohamba not want another term.According to South African journalist and analyst William Gumede, who wrote the book ‘Thabo Mbeki and the battle for the soul of the ANC’, “many liberation movements (who have become a) government, have failed because they shut out the talent and fresh ideas that could have liberated and grown their country and society”.Names of candidates are being traded almost like shares on a stock exchange.Unless Nujoma pulls another rabbit out of the hat and stays on “due to popular demand”, or because of the “crisis” in the party, Namibia might see a compromise candidate elected to the vice presidency of the party.At the moment former Prime Minister Hage Geingob remains the only candidate proposed by the Politburo for the position.As the Central Committee was meeting last night, there was still no indication whether a rival would throw his or her hat into the ring for the vice presidency. During the hype in 2004, when the party had to consider three presidential candidates for the first time since its formation in 1961, it was a contest played out between three, all of them from the dominant tribe.They were the Prime Minister Nahas Angula, Lands Minister Hifikepunye Pohamba and freshly sacked Foreign Minister Hidipo Hamutenya.Given the deep rifts that emerged in 2004 with the attempt to usher in “more democracy” into Swapo with a choice for candidates, and rumours deliberately spread about Hamutenya, the party has been more cautious in its approach this time round.This year the Politburo wisely decided to nominate one candidate for president – Pohamba – and one for the vice presidency and even announced this at a press conference two weeks ago.Swapo Secretary General Dr Ngarikutuke Tjiriange even instructed regional party offices not to make their choice of presidential candidates public, although the Khomas Region and a few others ignored this and announced that they wanted 78-year-old Nujoma to continue to lead the party.As speculation grew stronger about a possible life presidency for Nujoma and rumours circulated about some prominent Swapo members wanting to resign as a result, Nujoma called a Politburo meeting in early October and announced he would not stand for re-election, squashing the life presidency speculation.He might however go for the presently dormant position of national chairman, which was mothballed after David Meroro, now deceased, resigned from that post several years ago.Analaysts believe, however, that it is important that the “presidential twin-pack” of Nujoma and Pohamba – at the helm of the country since March 2005 – ends and that Pohamba also becomes president of Swapo at the end of this congress.According to party insiders, Nujoma initially wanted his successor as Head of State to be a non-Oshiwambo speaker, to counter increasing criticism that Swapo is primarily a tribal party.But lobbyists inside Swapo, and traditional tribal chiefs in the four O Regions, allegedly urged him that it should be an Oshikwanyama speaker.They cited the reason that the Oukwanyama made up the largest contingent in the People’s Liberation Army of Namibia (Plan) during the struggle years.But, the person mooted as the next Head of State after Pohamba, if the succession plan is anything to go by, would be Geingob.As the party’s Vice President in waiting he would be the logical heir.There is strong speculation that Lands Minister Jerry Ekandjo is a “last-minute” contestant for the post.The succession must be clear, so that the nation knows now who will take over in 2010, should Pohamba not want another term.According to South African journalist and analyst William Gumede, who wrote the book ‘Thabo Mbeki and the battle for the soul of the ANC’, “many liberation movements (who have become a) government, have failed because they shut out the talent and fresh ideas that could have liberated and grown their country and society”.