The race for second place

NAMIBIA’S main opposition political parties say they are gunning for nothing less than a victory in this month’s presidential and general but analysts believe the race is actually for second place, with the ruling party seen as being head and shoulders above the rest.

‘I think the issue of who will obtain second spot is fairly clear. The RDP (Rally for Democracy and Progress) will be the official opposition after the election. It is the ‘new kid on the block’ while most of the other opposition parties are struggling,’ said political commentator Graham Hopwood.His organisation, the Institute for Public Policy and Research (IPPR) conducted a Afrobarometer survey in November last year which gave the RDP nine per cent of the total votes as compared to the next highest opposition party – the DTA at four per cent.Hopwood believes that the RDP is the only opposition party that has been able to organise sizeable rallies – another indicator that it has higher support levels than other opposition parties.Several of the RDP rallies have been in the more populous regions of the north – where previously only Swapo has organised successful rallies.The new party is also conducting door-to-door campaigning but this recently led to angry responses from the ruling party faithful in the North and also in Windhoek and Otjiwarongo.’I don’t know how productive this will be but it is at least a new campaign tactic in Namibia,’ Hopwood said.RDP came about in 2007 because of Swapo’s failure to advance the country, according to RDP president Hidipo Hamutenya.’The formation of this party no doubt added a new and significant political dimension to the nation’s political process. It has aroused the interest of the masses of our people in political activity,’ Hamutenya wrote in the foreword to the party’s manifesto.According to Hopwood the only possible challenger for official opposition status is the DTA, which – despite having been in decline since 1994 – has put up a spirited campaign so far, at least in terms of developing its media profile and being seen as proactive on issues relating to a level electoral playing field.The party has had successful rallies in what was previously known as their heartland – towns such as Opuwo and Okakarara.Addressing a big crowd at Opuwo recently, DTA president Katuutire Kaura said the election would be a ‘two-horse race’ between them and Swapo and they were going in to win and not just to increase seats in the National Assembly.’What we stand for, the people of Namibia will buy,’ he said.The party’s motto is ‘you deserve better’ – the same as five years ago.Hopwood believes that the infighting in the Congress of Democrats over the past four years was bound to have diminished its electoral appeal.’I think they are out of the running for official opposition status,’ he said.CoD president Ben Ulenga differs with that opinion.During a recent rally in Mariental he said Namibians were ready to rid the country of ’20 years of misgovernment by Swapo’ and he was ‘ready to take over from the old Tanga group’.The Tanga group refers to are those who attended Swapo’s first major gathering in exile in Tanganyika (Tanzania) many years ago.The party’s spokesperson Natjirikasorua Tjirera told The Namibian that CoD had been the official opposition for 10 years and was now ready to take over from Swapo.’The reason for CoD’s existence is not to remain in the opposition forever but to help with the improvement of the socio-economic conditions of the Namibian people and we believe the only way we can do that is by taking over the Government in order to address the issues we believe needs to be addressed,’ he said.He said the CoD believed that the split in Swapo, which led to the formation of RDP, placed his party in a better position to seriously challenge the status quo at the polls. ‘As for the question as to who will be in the running for second position I can say it depends on who wins, because if we win, then of course we believe that Swapo will be one of the strongest contenders for second place but then again you will never know what the electorate has in store for us,’ he said.Tjirera said the CoD had deployed themselves strategically in all the regions in the country and their foot soldiers were being enforced with national leaders from time to time.’We are convinced that with the removal of NamPrint from the printing process, the original votes of the CoD which were clandestinely given to Swapo will be ours again and with the growth of the party at the grassroots level we will be able to mount a serious challenge against the ruling party in this country,’ he said.Hopwood said parties that base their appeal primarily on ethnicity – like the National Unity Democratic Organisation and the United Democratic Front – will always struggle to find enough support to achieve official opposition status while other parties contesting the election only have hopes of gaining one or two seats.These are the country’s oldest party, the South West Africa National Union (Swanu), Republican Party (RP), All People’s Party (APP), Monitor Action Group (MAG), Democratic Party of Namibia (DPN), Namibia Democratic Movement for Change (NDMC), National Democratic Party of Namibia and the Communist Party, which goes dormant and tends to reappear on the political scene every five years.