The art of ‘Kremlinology’

RIYADH – In Soviet Russia, it was called ‘Kremlinology’.

The intricate and ultimately futile analysis of an opaque ruling system dominated by ageing men in suits, who made a career out of giving little away. In Saudi Arabia, for suits just read “white robes”.Interpreting minuscule movements in the political geography of Saudi Arabia’s closed system of government is a favourite parlour game among journalists, diplomats and businessmen, as well as the ambitious hoping for appointments to state bodies.But a ripple of excitement has shifted the sands in recent months with indications that Prince Salman bin Abdul-Aziz, the governor of Riyadh and half-brother of King Abdullah, is positioning himself as second-in-line to the throne.Bear in mind that a rumour could take years to come to fruition in the absolute monarchy, governed by Saudi princes in their 70s and 80s with neither an elected parliament nor political parties.King Fahd was for years predicted to be at death’s door before he died in 2005.”This Saudi-style Kremlinology is a popular pastime, and plenty of people can make educated guesses or swap rumours,” one Western diplomat commented wryly.”But for my money it’s a waste of effort to engage in it.”In a recent example, speculation was rife over a March cabinet reshuffle that was to have seen the exit of Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi.When the “reshuffle” came, not only did both men retain their posts, but the entire cabinet was simply reinstated – apparently for another four years – without any changes at all.The incident highlighted the deeply conservative nature of Saudi politics, where a powerful religious establishment and a vocal liberal elite are battling for the allegiance of a burgeoning youth population.”The process of making decisions in our country has always been restricted to an exclusive circle,” wrote Ahmed al-Omran on his popular blogsite http://www.saudijeans.blogspot.com/ this month.”Normal people hardly have any history of political participation.”DESIGNATED HEIR King Abdullah, believed to have been born in 1924, is the fifth son of the country’s founder Abdul-Aziz bin Saud to rule the desert state in the Arabian peninsula, which commands global political and economic clout through its status as the world’s biggest oil exporter and home to Islam’s holiest sites.Abdullah’s designated heir is Prince Sultan, born around 1926.But Abdullah took steps in October to ensure consensus among an inner circle of royals, including younger princes, on who would follow Prince Sultan by setting up a new succession committee.With no clearly defined rules on succession, analysts say candidates must embark on what amounts to an undeclared public and private campaign to prove they have the stature to head the family that leads the nation bearing their name.Some figures in the public sphere already stand out, including Interior Minister Prince Nayef and younger princes such as billionaire businessman Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, and Sultan’s sons Prince Bandar – who has been conducting Saudi shuttle diplomacy in the region – and military commander Prince Khaled.Several senior European diplomats are unequivocal.”There is only one serious candidate and that is Salman,” one said.”He is very able, speaks without notes, can use language that can sound appealing to Western liberal ears.He enjoys government.I can’t believe Salman will not be king.”At 71, Prince Salman is a relatively youthful figure in Saudi Arabia’s gerontocracy, and is known to be in good health.He is also a full-brother of the crown prince.His family publishes the London-based pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, Saudi English-language Arab News, financial daily al-Eqtisadiah, and a host of magazines, and prominent coverage has been given to the prince over the past year.Riyadh governor since 1962, Salman led an official delegation to Russia last year and this month featured prominently in the media alongside the king and crown prince as the masterminds of a plan to develop the capital city.”Salman is basically the CEO of the royal family.He manages its finances.He also has an incredibly good reputation among both conservatives and liberals,” said Rochdi Younsi, Middle East and Africa analyst with Eurasia Group.But speculation about this particular aspect of Saudi Kremlinology remains taboo in the media.Sidestepping dissident debates of recent years that questioned the continued domination of the Saudi family, a consensus has formed among business, political and intellectual elites that it is policies – not personalities – that count.”The bottom line for many Saudis is what they see on the ground, regardless of who is the picture,” said Suleiman al-Hattlan, editor of Forbes Arabia.”People are reading and hearing about the huge budget, there is so much money in the country.It’s time to show people the reality of reform on the ground.”Nampa-ReutersIn Saudi Arabia, for suits just read “white robes”.Interpreting minuscule movements in the political geography of Saudi Arabia’s closed system of government is a favourite parlour game among journalists, diplomats and businessmen, as well as the ambitious hoping for appointments to state bodies.But a ripple of excitement has shifted the sands in recent months with indications that Prince Salman bin Abdul-Aziz, the governor of Riyadh and half-brother of King Abdullah, is positioning himself as second-in-line to the throne.Bear in mind that a rumour could take years to come to fruition in the absolute monarchy, governed by Saudi princes in their 70s and 80s with neither an elected parliament nor political parties.King Fahd was for years predicted to be at death’s door before he died in 2005.”This Saudi-style Kremlinology is a popular pastime, and plenty of people can make educated guesses or swap rumours,” one Western diplomat commented wryly.”But for my money it’s a waste of effort to engage in it.”In a recent example, speculation was rife over a March cabinet reshuffle that was to have seen the exit of Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi.When the “reshuffle” came, not only did both men retain their posts, but the entire cabinet was simply reinstated – apparently for another four years – without any changes at all.The incident highlighted the deeply conservative nature of Saudi politics, where a powerful religious establishment and a vocal liberal elite are battling for the allegiance of a burgeoning youth population.”The process of making decisions in our country has always been restricted to an exclusive circle,” wrote Ahmed al-Omran on his popular blogsite http://www.saudijeans.blogspot.com/ this month.”Normal people hardly have any history of political participation.”DESIGNATED HEIR King Abdullah, believed to have been born in 1924, is the fifth son of the country’s founder Abdul-Aziz bin Saud to rule the desert state in the Arabian peninsula, which commands global political and economic clout through its status as the world’s biggest oil exporter and home to Islam’s holiest sites.Abdullah’s designated heir is Prince Sultan, born around 1926.But Abdullah took steps in October to ensure consensus among an inner circle of royals, including younger princes, on who would follow Prince Sultan by setting up a new succession committee.With no clearly defined rules on succession, analysts say candidates must embark on what amounts to an undeclared public and private campaign to prove they have the stature to head the family that leads the nation bearing their name.Some figures in the public sphere already stand out, including Interior Minister Prince Nayef and younger princes such as billionaire businessman Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, and Sultan’s sons Prince Bandar – who has been conducting Saudi shuttle diplomacy in the region – and military commander Prince Khaled.Several senior European diplomats are unequivocal.”There is only one serious candidate and that is Salman,” one said.”He is very able, speaks without notes, can use language that can sound appealing to Western liberal ears.He enjoys government.I can’t believe Salman w
ill not be king.”At 71, Prince Salman is a relatively youthful figure in Saudi Arabia’s gerontocracy, and is known to be in good health.He is also a full-brother of the crown prince.His family publishes the London-based pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, Saudi English-language Arab News, financial daily al-Eqtisadiah, and a host of magazines, and prominent coverage has been given to the prince over the past year.Riyadh governor since 1962, Salman led an official delegation to Russia last year and this month featured prominently in the media alongside the king and crown prince as the masterminds of a plan to develop the capital city.”Salman is basically the CEO of the royal family.He manages its finances.He also has an incredibly good reputation among both conservatives and liberals,” said Rochdi Younsi, Middle East and Africa analyst with Eurasia Group.But speculation about this particular aspect of Saudi Kremlinology remains taboo in the media.Sidestepping dissident debates of recent years that questioned the continued domination of the Saudi family, a consensus has formed among business, political and intellectual elites that it is policies – not personalities – that count.”The bottom line for many Saudis is what they see on the ground, regardless of who is the picture,” said Suleiman al-Hattlan, editor of Forbes Arabia.”People are reading and hearing about the huge budget, there is so much money in the country.It’s time to show people the reality of reform on the ground.”Nampa-Reuters