System is devised to predict malaria epidemics

LONDON – An early warning system based on climate models, average rainfall and data on seasonal malaria can predict the risk of an epidemic of the killer disease five months in advance, scientists said yesterday.

The system has been devised by researchers in the United States, Britain and Botswana. “We can give warnings of high risk of an epidemic to the health agency and officials in the country ahead of the rainy season.This is something they have not had before,” said Tim Palmer, a climate modeller at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England.Malaria, a parasitic disease transmitted by mosquitoes, kills more than a million people a year, mostly young children in Africa.Changes in climate and rainfall have an impact on the seriousness of a malaria outbreak.In countries like Botswana, where the system was tested, the risk of an epidemic increases after a season of heavy rain.The system would enable health officials to take preventative action such as spraying stagnant water or supplying anti-malarial drugs earlier.”If you leave it until the end of the rainy season, it is pretty much too late because the malaria kicks in very soon afterwards,” Palmer told Reuters.”We’re talking about pushing the prediction horizon back several months, which really does give a lot more lead time.”Palmer and his colleagues, along with scientists from the Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York and the Ministry of Health in Botswana, used several climate models to forecast high and low incidences of malaria.Using the system, they retrospectively predicted malaria outbreaks in Botswana from 1982 to 2002, according to the research reported in the journal Nature.”What we have demonstrated in this project, which makes it unique, is the speed at which cutting-edge climate research can be translated into operational activity in Africa,” said Madeleine Thomson of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and a co-author of the report.- Nampa-Reuters”We can give warnings of high risk of an epidemic to the health agency and officials in the country ahead of the rainy season.This is something they have not had before,” said Tim Palmer, a climate modeller at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England.Malaria, a parasitic disease transmitted by mosquitoes, kills more than a million people a year, mostly young children in Africa.Changes in climate and rainfall have an impact on the seriousness of a malaria outbreak.In countries like Botswana, where the system was tested, the risk of an epidemic increases after a season of heavy rain.The system would enable health officials to take preventative action such as spraying stagnant water or supplying anti-malarial drugs earlier.”If you leave it until the end of the rainy season, it is pretty much too late because the malaria kicks in very soon afterwards,” Palmer told Reuters.”We’re talking about pushing the prediction horizon back several months, which really does give a lot more lead time.”Palmer and his colleagues, along with scientists from the Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York and the Ministry of Health in Botswana, used several climate models to forecast high and low incidences of malaria.Using the system, they retrospectively predicted malaria outbreaks in Botswana from 1982 to 2002, according to the research reported in the journal Nature.”What we have demonstrated in this project, which makes it unique, is the speed at which cutting-edge climate research can be translated into operational activity in Africa,” said Madeleine Thomson of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and a co-author of the report.- Nampa-Reuters