South Africa is bracing for a potential fuel price shock at the onset of April, as soaring international oil prices and a weakened rand threaten to drive prices to unprecedented heights.
The Central Energy Fund’s latest data offers a deeply concerning forecast for motorists, indicating the possibility of the largest monthly fuel price increases in South African history.
As analysts sift through early-month data, they caution that the worst might be yet to come.
The current ‘best case scenario’ predicts a petrol price spike of N$2.41 per litre, while diesel prices could soar by N$4.50 for the 50ppm variant.
However, these projections are heavily contingent on the month’s trajectory, which has already seen significant oil price surges over the past week.
Recent figures show an alarming under-recovery for diesel pegged at N$7 per litre, alongside a N$3.78 shortfall for petrol.
If the current trends in oil pricing and currency fluctuations persist, consumers can expect petrol to rise by over N$3, with diesel likely crossing the N$5 mark – estimates that many consider conservative.
As it stands, 95 Unleaded petrol is already priced at N$19.47 at coastal locations and N$20.30 in Gauteng.
Meanwhile, 93 Unleaded fetches N$20.19, and the wholesale rate for diesel is N$17.84 at the coast and N$19.17 inland.
The catalyst for the rampant increase in oil prices has been the ongoing geopolitical tensions following United States and Israeli military engagements in Iran, which have amplified the risks surrounding energy markets.
This crisis has particularly heightened anxieties regarding security in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical conduit for roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil.
Navigating this turmoil is further complicated by a weaker rand, which has plummeted from February’s average of N$16.31 to a more concerning N$16.54 against the US dollar.
As of Saturday, the currency hit N$16.79, exacerbating the financial situation for consumers.
Moreover, April will also see the introduction of increased fuel taxes as announced by finance minister Enoch Godongwana during his 2026 budget speech.
From 1 April, South Africans will encounter a new tax burden of 21 cents per litre due to adjustments in the general fuel levy (9 cents), carbon levy (5 cents), and road accident fund levy (7 cents).
With these tax changes, motorists will now contribute a cumulative N$4.10 per litre to the general fuel levy and N$2.25 to the beleaguered road accident fund.
It is important to remember that the fuel price predictions are based on early-month data, and significant changes could occur before the end of March when the official fuel price adjustments will be confirmed.– IOL
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