Somalia report reveals splits, manoeuvres

NAIROBI – An explosive UN report on how foreign arms supplies are accelerating Somalia’s slide to war has exposed splits among Western powers and raised questions about why it was leaked.

Regional analysts and diplomats broadly backed the report’s conclusion that a web of Muslim and pro-Western nations are pouring weapons into Somalia to strengthen powerful Islamists on one side and a shaky interim government on the other. But they said some of its less credible claims suggested the report’s authors may have been fed disinformation by intelligence agencies and others to promote their own agenda in one of Africa’s most strategic and volatile regions.The leaking of the report and its aftermath appear to uncover differences in the West over what to do about Somalia.One side may be hoping regional power and US ally Ethiopia can crush the Islamists – seen as a dangerous al Qaeda ally in the Horn of Africa – while the other, including the report’s authors, fears a disastrous conflagration that would attract global jihadists.Some analysts and diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, suggested US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Jendayi Frazer had recently changed policy on Somalia in favour of deploying a peacekeeping force.This is a policy long promoted by the regional body IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) and the interim government but fiercely opposed by the Islamists.The UN report warned such a deployment would hasten war.The European Commission put similar concerns to EU member states on Tuesday, saying the deployment could act as cover for a military operation against the Islamists and unleash a huge regional conflict, Commission sources said.The Commission’s Africa experts said in a report circulated to EU ambassadors that US officials were preparing a UN resolution calling for an easing of the widely flaunted 1992 arms embargo on Somalia to enable deployment of peacekeepers.A State Department official denied Washington wanted to impose a solution in Somalia.The UN report, originally obtained by Reuters a week ago, said Eritrea, Syria, Iran, Djibouti, Egypt, Libya and Saudi Arabia had sent soldiers, supplies or weapons to the Islamists, while Ethiopia, Uganda and Yemen are supplying the government.Most of these nations vehemently denied the report and four, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Uganda, are members of IGAD.”It paints a very accurate picture of increased arms flows into Somalia,” said Matt Bryden of the International Crisis Group think tank.He said 85-90 per cent of the report is “very accurate, meticulously documented, very, very good”.But most analysts and diplomats expressed severe misgivings about two elements of the report – that more than 700 Somali fighters reinforced the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in its conflict with Israel last July, and that Iran is seeking uranium in Somalia in exchange for weapons.A diplomat in Nairobi who specialises in Somalia but asked not to be identified, told Reuters: “Overall the picture looks very likely but there are some major question marks over what are unfortunately the juiciest bits of the report.”He said the attempt to paint the Islamists as a danger for the wider region might be intended to prepare for war when east Africa’s current rainy season ends.The United States has accused the Islamists, who have seized much of south-central Somalia since defeating US-backed warlords in Mogadishu in June, of harbouring al Qaeda militants.It has also warned that neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia could be targets of these groups.The UN report accused Ethiopia and Eritrea of being the biggest violators of the arms embargo and said a Somalia conflict could swiftly become a proxy war between these two powers, still at daggers-drawn after a 1998-2000 war that killed 70 000 people.Nampa-ReutersBut they said some of its less credible claims suggested the report’s authors may have been fed disinformation by intelligence agencies and others to promote their own agenda in one of Africa’s most strategic and volatile regions.The leaking of the report and its aftermath appear to uncover differences in the West over what to do about Somalia.One side may be hoping regional power and US ally Ethiopia can crush the Islamists – seen as a dangerous al Qaeda ally in the Horn of Africa – while the other, including the report’s authors, fears a disastrous conflagration that would attract global jihadists.Some analysts and diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, suggested US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Jendayi Frazer had recently changed policy on Somalia in favour of deploying a peacekeeping force.This is a policy long promoted by the regional body IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) and the interim government but fiercely opposed by the Islamists.The UN report warned such a deployment would hasten war.The European Commission put similar concerns to EU member states on Tuesday, saying the deployment could act as cover for a military operation against the Islamists and unleash a huge regional conflict, Commission sources said.The Commission’s Africa experts said in a report circulated to EU ambassadors that US officials were preparing a UN resolution calling for an easing of the widely flaunted 1992 arms embargo on Somalia to enable deployment of peacekeepers.A State Department official denied Washington wanted to impose a solution in Somalia.The UN report, originally obtained by Reuters a week ago, said Eritrea, Syria, Iran, Djibouti, Egypt, Libya and Saudi Arabia had sent soldiers, supplies or weapons to the Islamists, while Ethiopia, Uganda and Yemen are supplying the government.Most of these nations vehemently denied the report and four, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Uganda, are members of IGAD.”It paints a very accurate picture of increased arms flows into Somalia,” said Matt Bryden of the International Crisis Group think tank.He said 85-90 per cent of the report is “very accurate, meticulously documented, very, very good”.But most analysts and diplomats expressed severe misgivings about two elements of the report – that more than 700 Somali fighters reinforced the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in its conflict with Israel last July, and that Iran is seeking uranium in Somalia in exchange for weapons.A diplomat in Nairobi who specialises in Somalia but asked not to be identified, told Reuters: “Overall the picture looks very likely but there are some major question marks over what are unfortunately the juiciest bits of the report.”He said the attempt to paint the Islamists as a danger for the wider region might be intended to prepare for war when east Africa’s current rainy season ends.The United States has accused the Islamists, who have seized much of south-central Somalia since defeating US-backed warlords in Mogadishu in June, of harbouring al Qaeda militants.It has also warned that neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia could be targets of these groups.The UN report accused Ethiopia and Eritrea of being the biggest violators of the arms embargo and said a Somalia conflict could swiftly become a proxy war between these two powers, still at daggers-drawn after a 1998-2000 war that killed 70 000 people.Nampa-Reuters