So far, so good: food production up

GOVERNMENT expects the country’s food security situation to improve this year, with at least 90 per cent of the potential crop area in the Caprivi, Oshana, Ohangwena, Omusati and Oshikoto regions expected to be cultivated by the end of the season.

These predictions are, however, dependent on continued good rains. The latest National Food Security Bulletin indicates that in the wake of the good rains that have fallen since October, at least 76 per cent of the country’s potential crop has already been cultivated.Since May, about 146 800 tonnes of cereal have been imported by commercial millers to meet the previously estimated national cereal shortfall of about 139 700 tonnes.In the coming months, a further 45 000 tonnes of cereal is to be imported to bring the country’s cereal balance to a surplus of about 49 600 tonnes.Early rains in Omusati, Oshana, Oshikoto and Ohangwena have raised the prospect of promising harvests.Even though rainfall has been good in the Caprivi, a locust outbreak at Dudukabe, Ngoma East and West and Itomba as well as flooding at Sangwali and in the east of the region pose a threat to food security.Current indications are that, by the end of the season, about 85 per cent of the Caprivi’s total potential crop of maize and sorghum will be harvested.Total cereal domestic supply forecast for the period ending April 2004, has been estimated at 148 700 tonnes.The food supply and demand ratio is calculated on the basis of an estimated population of 1,9 million consuming 125 kg of cereal a year.At the start of the 2003-2004 marketing season, the country’s cereal stocks stood at 48 000 tons, most of which were held by commercial millers in the country.This was comprised of 30 000 tonnes of millet-sorghum, 6 800 tonnes of maize and 11 200 tonnes of wheat carried over from the 2002 harvest and imports.However, while prospects for a satisfactory cereal harvest are good this year, the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development has expressed concern about the situation in livestock-producing areas.Hardap at 64 per cent, and Omaheke at 61 per cent, have received below-average rainfall at this point in the season.In Omaheke, the onset of the 2003-04 rainfall season has reportedly been satisfactory with the exception of “minor disappointments” at Omungondo, Okombeto, Oturauka, Ombujanda and Ombujomungondo, where boreholes have dried up as a result of poor rainfall.In these districts, livestock are reportedly in poor condition while the rest of the region is said range from fair to good.Forage cover at these places is also estimated to be 40 to 60 per cent below normal, while the rest of the region’s average forage cover is estimated at 40 to 60 per cent above normal.In the Hardap Region, results for the first half of the 2003- 04 rainfall season have been described as fair, even though the eastern part of the region hasn’t received enough rain yet.At present, it is estimated that the prevailing vegetation is normal (20 per cent above or below average forage cover).If productive follow-up rains fall, enough grazing should be available by the end of the season.It is expected that by the end of the rainfall season, close to 100 per cent of the total potential crop area will be under cultivation at the Hardap and Stampriet irrigation schemes.The final crop assessment for this year is scheduled during April and May.The latest National Food Security Bulletin indicates that in the wake of the good rains that have fallen since October, at least 76 per cent of the country’s potential crop has already been cultivated. Since May, about 146 800 tonnes of cereal have been imported by commercial millers to meet the previously estimated national cereal shortfall of about 139 700 tonnes. In the coming months, a further 45 000 tonnes of cereal is to be imported to bring the country’s cereal balance to a surplus of about 49 600 tonnes. Early rains in Omusati, Oshana, Oshikoto and Ohangwena have raised the prospect of promising harvests. Even though rainfall has been good in the Caprivi, a locust outbreak at Dudukabe, Ngoma East and West and Itomba as well as flooding at Sangwali and in the east of the region pose a threat to food security. Current indications are that, by the end of the season, about 85 per cent of the Caprivi’s total potential crop of maize and sorghum will be harvested. Total cereal domestic supply forecast for the period ending April 2004, has been estimated at 148 700 tonnes. The food supply and demand ratio is calculated on the basis of an estimated population of 1,9 million consuming 125 kg of cereal a year. At the start of the 2003-2004 marketing season, the country’s cereal stocks stood at 48 000 tons, most of which were held by commercial millers in the country. This was comprised of 30 000 tonnes of millet-sorghum, 6 800 tonnes of maize and 11 200 tonnes of wheat carried over from the 2002 harvest and imports. However, while prospects for a satisfactory cereal harvest are good this year, the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development has expressed concern about the situation in livestock-producing areas. Hardap at 64 per cent, and Omaheke at 61 per cent, have received below-average rainfall at this point in the season. In Omaheke, the onset of the 2003-04 rainfall season has reportedly been satisfactory with the exception of “minor disappointments” at Omungondo, Okombeto, Oturauka, Ombujanda and Ombujomungondo, where boreholes have dried up as a result of poor rainfall. In these districts, livestock are reportedly in poor condition while the rest of the region is said range from fair to good. Forage cover at these places is also estimated to be 40 to 60 per cent below normal, while the rest of the region’s average forage cover is estimated at 40 to 60 per cent above normal. In the Hardap Region, results for the first half of the 2003- 04 rainfall season have been described as fair, even though the eastern part of the region hasn’t received enough rain yet. At present, it is estimated that the prevailing vegetation is normal (20 per cent above or below average forage cover). If productive follow-up rains fall, enough grazing should be available by the end of the season. It is expected that by the end of the rainfall season, close to 100 per cent of the total potential crop area will be under cultivation at the Hardap and Stampriet irrigation schemes. The final crop assessment for this year is scheduled during April and May.