SADC ‘to pay dearly for dithering on Zimbabwe’

HARARE – Analysts have warned that southern Africa could ultimately pay a high price for “soft peddling” on Zimbabwe’s deteriorating political crisis as the Harare economy continues to blight the region’s growth.

The analysts charged that the longer Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders took to solve Zimbabwe’s crisis, the greater the likelihood of their own political landscape and economies catching the “Harare breeze”. “There is a false sense of security amongst most SADC leaders who don’t realise that the best way to safeguard your own house from a fire in the neighbour’s house is to ensure that you help that neighbour to quickly put out a fire at his house,” said political scientist Eldred Masunungure.The analysts spoke as SADC leaders met in Tanzania for a special regional summit to discuss the deteriorating political situation in Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.The summit wrapped up early on Friday.President Robert Mugabe’s government, accused of intolerance of political opposition, has come under fire since the arrest and subsequent torture of its opponents early this month.The government on March 11 arrested main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai and about 50 other government opponents.Tsvangirai was subsequently assaulted by suspected army commandos in police custody, triggering an international outcry calling for Mugabe to respect the rule of law and to tolerate dissension.However, most observers in Harare predicted precisely what did happen at the summit: that SADC leaders would fail to pin the 83-year-old Zimbabwean leader who has escaped previous censure from his regional colleagues.Speaking ahead of the summit, an economist with one of Zimbabwe’s biggest commercial banks, who asked not to be named, said: “The best we can expect from the summit is an acknowledgement that a settlement has to be found to the Zimbabwe crisis but none among the leaders can stand up to Mugabe to tell him his actions are hurting the rest of the region.”The economist said the central position of Zimbabwe should have been a good reason for the SADC leaders to want to seek a lasting settlement to the country’s crisis.Zimbabwe is in the middle of the 14-member regional bloc that stretches from South Africa to Tanzania and is targeting the setting up of a free trade zone by 2008.The success of the free trade area – part of a raft of economic milestones set up between 2008 and 2016 – is premised on the condition that there is peace in southern Africa and that all the economies are stable.A moribund Zimbabwean economy could throw a spanner in the works as far as regional plans are concerned.A politically volatile Zimbabwe could significantly curtail the free movement of goods and people across the region.The country offers the shortest and cheapest route for imports by countries in the north of the Zambezi river.”Delays in finding a settlement to the Zimbabwe crisis has, therefore, far-reaching implications for the region than just political solidarity the leaders have always cited whenever the country comes up for discussion,” said the bank economist.The analysts warned that there is also the likelihood that Western countries such as the United States and Britain could start squeezing regional economic powerhouse South Africa to take stronger action on Harare.These countries could easily initiate the collapse of the South African economy in retaliation to President Thabo Mbeki’s “quiet diplomacy” stance on Zimbabwe.The Zimbabwean economy – adjudged by the World Bank to be the world’s fastest shrinking economy outside a war zone – has forced many people to leave for other countries, with more than two million now settled in South Africa and several more in Botswana, Mozambique and Zambia.At about 1 730 per cent, the country’s inflation is the highest in the world.ZimOnline”There is a false sense of security amongst most SADC leaders who don’t realise that the best way to safeguard your own house from a fire in the neighbour’s house is to ensure that you help that neighbour to quickly put out a fire at his house,” said political scientist Eldred Masunungure.The analysts spoke as SADC leaders met in Tanzania for a special regional summit to discuss the deteriorating political situation in Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.The summit wrapped up early on Friday.President Robert Mugabe’s government, accused of intolerance of political opposition, has come under fire since the arrest and subsequent torture of its opponents early this month.The government on March 11 arrested main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai and about 50 other government opponents.Tsvangirai was subsequently assaulted by suspected army commandos in police custody, triggering an international outcry calling for Mugabe to respect the rule of law and to tolerate dissension.However, most observers in Harare predicted precisely what did happen at the summit: that SADC leaders would fail to pin the 83-year-old Zimbabwean leader who has escaped previous censure from his regional colleagues.Speaking ahead of the summit, an economist with one of Zimbabwe’s biggest commercial banks, who asked not to be named, said: “The best we can expect from the summit is an acknowledgement that a settlement has to be found to the Zimbabwe crisis but none among the leaders can stand up to Mugabe to tell him his actions are hurting the rest of the region.”The economist said the central position of Zimbabwe should have been a good reason for the SADC leaders to want to seek a lasting settlement to the country’s crisis.Zimbabwe is in the middle of the 14-member regional bloc that stretches from South Africa to Tanzania and is targeting the setting up of a free trade zone by 2008.The success of the free trade area – part of a raft of economic milestones set up between 2008 and 2016 – is premised on the condition that there is peace in southern Africa and that all the economies are stable.A moribund Zimbabwean economy could throw a spanner in the works as far as regional plans are concerned.A politically volatile Zimbabwe could significantly curtail the free movement of goods and people across the region.The country offers the shortest and cheapest route for imports by countries in the north of the Zambezi river.”Delays in finding a settlement to the Zimbabwe crisis has, therefore, far-reaching implications for the region than just political solidarity the leaders have always cited whenever the country comes up for discussion,” said the bank economist.The analysts warned that there is also the likelihood that Western countries such as the United States and Britain could start squeezing regional economic powerhouse South Africa to take stronger action on Harare.These countries could easily initiate the collapse of the South African economy in retaliation to President Thabo Mbeki’s “quiet diplomacy” stance on Zimbabwe.The Zimbabwean economy – adjudged by the World Bank to be the world’s fastest shrinking economy outside a war zone – has forced many people to leave for other countries, with more than two million now settled in South Africa and several more in Botswana, Mozambique and Zambia.At about 1 730 per cent, the country’s inflation is the highest in the world.ZimOnline