SA graft verdict opens up presidency race

JOHANNESBURG – South African Deputy President Jacob Zuma’s once clear path to the presidency has been severely obstructed by a close aide’s conviction for corruption.

Zuma was not on trial and remains deputy president. But the opposition has called for his resignation, and analysts and newspapers are sounding a dirge for his political career.”Zuma’s career is, deservedly, over.He will never, whatever rationalisations his trade union and African National Congress (ANC) Youth League supporters may dream up, be the president of SA and it is most improbable that he will take the party’s presidency either,” the respected Business Day said in a damning editorial on Friday.For more than 50 years the ANC’s deputy president has gone on to be party president — and national president since 1994.THIRD TERM? The party is due to elect new leadership at a congress in 2007, with the new party president widely expected to lead the party into general elections in 2009 as presidential candidate to succeed Thabo Mbeki.But with no clear successor, analysts say Mbeki may now hang on as party president — even though the constitution bars him from seeking a third term as national president.”That will allow sufficient time for a leader to emerge, or the contenders to knock each other out until a favourite emerges,” said Shadrack Gutto of the Centre for African Renaissance Studies at the University of South Africa.Schabir Shaik’s conviction on charges of paying Zuma money in return for political favours and soliciting a bribe from a French arms firm in exchange for protection from investigation, would trigger the ANC succession debate to “start in earnest” whether or not Zuma was charged, Gutto said.”The ANC is beginning to have a serious debate about the quality of leadership,” said analyst Sipho Seepe of the Henley Management College, adding that the criteria for ANC leadership may be subtly changing.”The likes of Zuma have always banked on their history and longevity in the ANC.”An unofficial shortlist of likely contenders that has emerged from various political and media sources includes Zuma’s ex-wife, Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, and Defence Minister Mosiuoa ‘Terror’ Lekota, who holds the post of ANC chairman, which catapulted Mbeki into the party’s driving seat.Some analysts have cited highly effective and popular Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, although there is a question mark over whether the ANC is yet ready to elect a leader from the minority Coloured community.Then there is the business set, led by Cyril Ramaphosa and Mvelaphanda Holdings Chairman Tokyo Sexwale who both quit politics and are now among the country’s richest businessmen but could step back into the political fray given a clear opportunity, analysts said.It is unclear how much Mbeki will be able to direct the debate on his successor — or even whether Zuma should stay on.SEALED ZUMA’S FATE In a critical political biography, William Gumede says Mbeki favoured his close ally Zuma as his deputy in 1999 as a “safe choice” whom he did not consider “presidential material”.Even when their friendship cooled, Mbeki was forced to retain Zuma because of his immense popularity, Gumede wrote.In his first public comment on the verdict, Mbeki gave away little.”What will we do is to look at what the judge will say.We will then see what action is necessary to take,” he said.Some believe Mbeki sealed Zuma’s fate by telling parliament just days before the verdict that corruption would not be tolerated within the executive.Separately the ANC leadership said on the day judgement began that it would dismiss MPs convicted of defrauding parliament in an unrelated case.”This was to tie themselves into a corner …There were those in the ANC who were uneasy with the prospect of Zuma becoming president,” said Seepe.”I don’t think the ANC is running short of leadership.It’s a question of who can attract the support of the powers that be.”For the time being, Zuma remains deputy president, although his usually jovial demeanour gave way to visible unease on Thursday as he protested to television cameras in Zambia that former adviser Shaik was on trial, not him.Throughout the trial the popular Zuma has enjoyed solid support from the ANC’s Youth League and its union ally Cosatu.But widespread grassroots backing may become more nuanced after the verdict — and particularly what the judge called “overwhelming” evidence of a corrupt relationship between Shaik and Zuma.Moeng, a 63-year-old Johannesburg cab driver and card-carrying ANC member, said Zuma should remain in his post for the time being as he had not been found guilty.”But if he is guilty, that is something everybody can see, (then) he should resign,” he said.The Sowetan, the most established black mass market daily, suggested that as head of the government’s much vaunted “moral regeneration programme” the onus was on Zuma to clear his name.”Zuma needs to be seen to be without blemish, and the judge’s pronouncements may have rendered him unfit to hold public office,” the tabloid said in a front-page editorial.- Nampa-Reuters (Additional reporting by Alain Ngono in Johannesburg and John Chiahemen in Cape Town) * See also report p9.But the opposition has called for his resignation, and analysts and newspapers are sounding a dirge for his political career.”Zuma’s career is, deservedly, over.He will never, whatever rationalisations his trade union and African National Congress (ANC) Youth League supporters may dream up, be the president of SA and it is most improbable that he will take the party’s presidency either,” the respected Business Day said in a damning editorial on Friday.For more than 50 years the ANC’s deputy president has gone on to be party president — and national president since 1994.THIRD TERM? The party is due to elect new leadership at a congress in 2007, with the new party president widely expected to lead the party into general elections in 2009 as presidential candidate to succeed Thabo Mbeki.But with no clear successor, analysts say Mbeki may now hang on as party president — even though the constitution bars him from seeking a third term as national president.”That will allow sufficient time for a leader to emerge, or the contenders to knock each other out until a favourite emerges,” said Shadrack Gutto of the Centre for African Renaissance Studies at the University of South Africa.Schabir Shaik’s conviction on charges of paying Zuma money in return for political favours and soliciting a bribe from a French arms firm in exchange for protection from investigation, would trigger the ANC succession debate to “start in earnest” whether or not Zuma was charged, Gutto said.”The ANC is beginning to have a serious debate about the quality of leadership,” said analyst Sipho Seepe of the Henley Management College, adding that the criteria for ANC leadership may be subtly changing.”The likes of Zuma have always banked on their history and longevity in the ANC.”An unofficial shortlist of likely contenders that has emerged from various political and media sources includes Zuma’s ex-wife, Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, and Defence Minister Mosiuoa ‘Terror’ Lekota, who holds the post of ANC chairman, which catapulted Mbeki into the party’s driving seat.Some analysts have cited highly effective and popular Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, although there is a question mark over whether the ANC is yet ready to elect a leader from the minority Coloured community.Then there is the business set, led by Cyril Ramaphosa and Mvelaphanda Holdings Chairman Tokyo Sexwale who both quit politics and are now among the country’s richest businessmen but could step back into the political fray given a clear opportunity, analysts said.It is unclear how much Mbeki will be able to direct the debate on his successor — or even whether Zuma should stay on.SEALED ZUMA’S FATE In a critical political biography, William Gumede says Mbeki favoured his close ally Zuma as his deputy in 1999 as a “safe choice” whom he did not consider “presidential material”.Even when their friendship cooled, Mbeki was forced to retain Zuma because of his immense popularity, Gumede wrote.In his first public comment on the verdict, Mbeki gave away little.”What will we do is to look at what the judge will say.We will then see what action is necessary to take,” he said.Some believe Mbeki sealed Zuma’s fate by telling parliament just days before the verdict that corruption would not be tolerated within the executive.Separately the ANC leadership said on the day judgement began that it would dismiss MPs convicted of defrauding parliament in an unrelated case.”This was to tie themselves into a corner …There were those in the ANC who were uneasy with the prospect of Zuma becoming president,” said Seepe.”I don’t think the ANC is running short of leadership.It’s a question of who can attract the support of the powers that be.”For the time being, Zuma remains deputy president, although his usually jovial demeanour gave way to visible unease on Thursday as he protested to television cameras in Zambia that former adviser Shaik was on trial, not him.Throughout the trial the popular Zuma has enjoyed solid support from the ANC’s Youth League and its union ally Cosatu.But widespread grassroots backing may become more nuanced after the verdict — and particularly what the judge called “overwhelming” evidence of a corrupt relationship between Shaik and Zuma.Moeng, a 63-year-old Johannesburg cab driver and card-carrying ANC member, said Zuma should remain in his post for the time being as he had not been found guilty.”But if he is guilty, that is something everybody can see, (then) he should resign,” he said.The Sowetan, the most established black mass market daily, suggested that as head of the government’s much vaunted “moral regeneration programme” the onus was on Zuma to clear his name.”Zuma needs to be seen to be without blemish, and the judge’s pronouncements may have rendered him unfit to hold public office,” the tabloid said in a front-page editorial.- Nampa-Reuters (Additional reporting by Alain Ngono in Johannesburg and John Chiahemen in Cape Town) * See also report p9.