Russia and Ukraine: Why the Budapest Memorandum Matters

This key agreement was signed on 5 December 1994 between Ukraine, Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Belarus and Kazakhstan.To understand the Budapest Memorandum, one has to dissect the background that led to its signing. After the Cold War and the subsequent collapse of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, it became clear that the Soviet Union would not survive.Hence, on 1 December 1991 Ukraine held a referendum on independence from the Soviet Union. The majority of Ukrainians – 28 804 071 (92.26%) – voted for independence, leading to the collapse of the Soviet Union on 26 December 1991.After the referendum, Ukraine still held a substantial amount of the nuclear arsenal – about one-third – formerly belonging to the Soviet Union. It was the third largest in the world at that time, behind only Russia and the United States.NUCLEAR DYNAMICSHowever, having these nuclear weapons was not a blessing for the new nation. In fact, it presented a number of challenges.Firstly, it meant that Ukraine's aspirations of joining Europe and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, or NPT, would not be possible. Ukraine had long desired to become a nuclear neutral state, and had asked to join the NPT even prior to 1990 but could not because of these nuclear weapons.Secondly, the financial implications of holding such a major nuclear arsenal was not sustainable. Ukraine simply did not possess the financial muscle to fund its maintenance. Lastly, there were fears within the political establishment in Kyiv and among large sections of the population that the continued possession of the nuclear weapons could act as a catalyst for Russian interference in the new nation.It is precisely because of these dynamics that Ukraine, Russia, the United States, United Kingdom, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed the Budapest Memorandum. It was important for two crucial reasons. Firstly, the agreement stripped Ukraine of its powerful nuclear arsenal. In terms of the agreement, Ukraine agreed to gradually disarm itself from the nuclear arsenal and hand it over to Russia, which it subsequently did between 1994 and 2002.Secondly, the conditions accompanying the nuclear handover was the promise that Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom would respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty, and that no nation would attempt to intervene in the country's internal affairs.CRUCIAL QUESTIONSIn essence, the memorandum served as the basis of Ukrainian independence and sovereignty for more than 20 years – up until 2014, when Russia broke the agreement and annexed Crimea.The Budapest Memorandum is a crucial element in analysing the current crisis, and at who exactly has been found wanting in the conflict. The Kremlin argues that the unclear status of the relationship between the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) and Ukraine necessitated invading Ukraine to protect Russia's interests. One of the Kremlin's demands is that Nato cease all its military operations in Eastern Europe.Nato has operations in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The fundamental question that we as commentators have to ask is: Is Nato breaking any international agreement by having operations stationed in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia? All four nations are Nato members and Nato has the right to operate within the boundaries of its member states. Hence, in the deeper analysis it becomes clear that the Kremlin has no right to demand that Nato cease its operations in Eastern Europe.Even if we were to entertain the Kremlin's argument that it needs an assurance that Ukraine will not join Nato, that demand becomes difficult because it is the Ukrainians themselves who have always wanted to join Europe and Nato. In fact, Nato has consistently rejected the idea of a  Ukrainian membership.THE PUTIN EQUATIONSo why exactly did Russia invade Ukraine? This question can be answered if one analyses Vladimir Putin's sentiments when he addressed the world just before the invasion. Putin proclaimed that “Ukraine never had a tradition of stable statehood”, and that “Ukraine was an integral part of Russia's history”. These comments clearly demonstrate that apart from all the other reasons Putin has advanced to justify his invasion of Ukraine, it was always his intention to invade Ukraine. It was just a question of when.In conclusion, the only way in which this crisis can be mitigated is when all parties abide by the agreements currently in place in regard to Ukraine and its sovereignty. The Budapest Memorandum is one such agreement. It was a sober agreement, which guaranteed the sustainability of Ukrainian statehood, independence and sovereignty of Ukraine for 20 years.* Maximalliant T Katjimune is the national spokesperson of the PDM Youth League. He holds a BA (honours) in political science and sociology from the University of Namibia.

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