Repo rate may rise 3 more times

JOHANNESBURG – South Africa’s central bank could raise interest rates at each of its next three policy meetings, economic research unit Moody’s Economy.com said on Friday.

The bank’s monetary policy committee meets on Dec 6-7 and in February and April 2007. The Reserve Bank is widely expected to raise its repo rate by 50 basis points to nine per cent next week after three hikes since June aimed at tempering rising inflationary pressures.But worse-than-expected trade, credit and inflation data released this week has raised the risk that the December rise will not be the last in the current tightening cycle.”If economic growth and credit expansion had turned the corner as Moody’s Economy.com had expected the central bank would have the justification to hike on 7 December and then wait and see,” it said in a weekly note.”This scenario seems impossible at this juncture, prompting Moody’s Economy.com to pencil-in further rate hikes at each of the central bank’s next two meetings,” it added.South Africa’s trade deficit for October jumped to a record 12,9 billion rand from a 175 million rand shortfall in September – although it was largely on the back of a leap in oil imports due to refineries restocking after recent shutdowns.Moody’s Economy.com said the rate hikes so far had failed to curtail households’ appetite for spending, “virtually guaranteeing further rate hikes”.Data showed credit extended to the private sector also marched to new record of 27,48 per cent year-on-year in October, while factory gate inflation soared to an almost four-year high of 10 per cent in the year to the same month.The targeted CPIX inflation slowed to five per cent from 5,1 per cent but beat forecasts despite a sharp drop in petrol pump prices.A Reuters poll of 17 economists last week predicted a half percentage point rise in the repo rate next week, while 10 saw no increase in February, but the latest data may have dampened expectations of an early end to the tightening trend.Nampa-ReutersThe Reserve Bank is widely expected to raise its repo rate by 50 basis points to nine per cent next week after three hikes since June aimed at tempering rising inflationary pressures.But worse-than-expected trade, credit and inflation data released this week has raised the risk that the December rise will not be the last in the current tightening cycle.”If economic growth and credit expansion had turned the corner as Moody’s Economy.com had expected the central bank would have the justification to hike on 7 December and then wait and see,” it said in a weekly note.”This scenario seems impossible at this juncture, prompting Moody’s Economy.com to pencil-in further rate hikes at each of the central bank’s next two meetings,” it added.South Africa’s trade deficit for October jumped to a record 12,9 billion rand from a 175 million rand shortfall in September – although it was largely on the back of a leap in oil imports due to refineries restocking after recent shutdowns.Moody’s Economy.com said the rate hikes so far had failed to curtail households’ appetite for spending, “virtually guaranteeing further rate hikes”.Data showed credit extended to the private sector also marched to new record of 27,48 per cent year-on-year in October, while factory gate inflation soared to an almost four-year high of 10 per cent in the year to the same month.The targeted CPIX inflation slowed to five per cent from 5,1 per cent but beat forecasts despite a sharp drop in petrol pump prices.A Reuters poll of 17 economists last week predicted a half percentage point rise in the repo rate next week, while 10 saw no increase in February, but the latest data may have dampened expectations of an early end to the tightening trend.Nampa-Reuters