Regional summit seen sidestepping Zim

JOHANNESBURG – Southern African leaders meet in Botswana this week under the shadow of yet more turmoil in Zimbabwe, but analysts expect little action to confront a crisis many fear could spread instability to the region.

Heads of state of the 13-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) meet on Wednesday and Thursday in Botswana under growing pressure on Africa to address Zimbabwe’s woes. The razing of shantytowns and illegal businesses prompted a fierce rebuke from the United Nations, which says the two-month operation has left 700 000 people without homes or livelihoods and worsened a spreading food crisis.Political analysts say the renewed diplomatic pressure was a major factor in Nigerian President and African Union (AU) Chairman Olusegun Obasanjo’s appointment of former Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano to mediate between Mugabe’s Zanu-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.The step was seen to reflect growing consensus within Africa that dialogue between the country’s main parties was the best way to tackle crisis in Zimbabwe, a former regional breadbasket now grappling with shortages of food, forex and fuel.”This novel approach is made necessary by the impending humanitarian crisis in that country.It is born out of the very real realisation that Zimbabwe requires urgent attention,” said Chris Maroleng, senior researcher at South Africa’s Institute of Security Studies.”It indicates the willingness of the AU to become more forceful or more engaged in the situation than in the past.”But Maroleng saw little prospect of SADC following suit with a public gesture of its own.”It (SADC) operates very much as an old boys club, and a lot may be done through an old boys club but we never hear about it.”We may not necessarily get a public pronouncement on Zimbabwe at this summit, but what we can be assured of is that South Africa and Zimbabwe will use it to lobby and build a consensus around their different agendas,” Maroleng said.The role of economic and political heavyweight South Africa has crystallised with plans for a large loan to help Zimbabwe meet overdue payments to the International Monetary Fund and other obligations.Loan negotiations have lifted the veil on South Africa’s longstanding “quiet diplomacy” with media reporting a host of possible loan conditions – although South Africa has balked at the word “condition”.South African President Thabo Mbeki has said the money could help avert further economic strife in Zimbabwe and prevent its spread to South Africa, while his country’s official opposition has insisted tough conditions should apply to any loan.Reports of possible conditions such as talks with the MDC, repeal of strict security and media laws and constitutional reform were rebuffed by Mugabe last week.He insisted he would not talk to an opposition he regards as a stooge for former colonial power Britain and other Western interests.And while the loan negotiations go on, analysts said any overt discussion of Zimbabwe by SADC leaders was unlikely.”I’d have a hard time imagining that anyone would bring it (Zimbabwe) up, especially as the ball is now in South Africa’s court,” said Ross Herbert of South African think tank Idasa.Herbert questioned the merit of the AU asking Chissano to mediate between Zanu-PF and the MDC, saying: “I think it’s kind of a token step to say ‘Look we are doing something’.”- Nampa- ReutersThe razing of shantytowns and illegal businesses prompted a fierce rebuke from the United Nations, which says the two-month operation has left 700 000 people without homes or livelihoods and worsened a spreading food crisis.Political analysts say the renewed diplomatic pressure was a major factor in Nigerian President and African Union (AU) Chairman Olusegun Obasanjo’s appointment of former Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano to mediate between Mugabe’s Zanu-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.The step was seen to reflect growing consensus within Africa that dialogue between the country’s main parties was the best way to tackle crisis in Zimbabwe, a former regional breadbasket now grappling with shortages of food, forex and fuel.”This novel approach is made necessary by the impending humanitarian crisis in that country.It is born out of the very real realisation that Zimbabwe requires urgent attention,” said Chris Maroleng, senior researcher at South Africa’s Institute of Security Studies.”It indicates the willingness of the AU to become more forceful or more engaged in the situation than in the past.”But Maroleng saw little prospect of SADC following suit with a public gesture of its own.”It (SADC) operates very much as an old boys club, and a lot may be done through an old boys club but we never hear about it.”We may not necessarily get a public pronouncement on Zimbabwe at this summit, but what we can be assured of is that South Africa and Zimbabwe will use it to lobby and build a consensus around their different agendas,” Maroleng said.The role of economic and political heavyweight South Africa has crystallised with plans for a large loan to help Zimbabwe meet overdue payments to the International Monetary Fund and other obligations.Loan negotiations have lifted the veil on South Africa’s longstanding “quiet diplomacy” with media reporting a host of possible loan conditions – although South Africa has balked at the word “condition”.South African President Thabo Mbeki has said the money could help avert further economic strife in Zimbabwe and prevent its spread to South Africa, while his country’s official opposition has insisted tough conditions should apply to any loan.Reports of possible conditions such as talks with the MDC, repeal of strict security and media laws and constitutional reform were rebuffed by Mugabe last week.He insisted he would not talk to an opposition he regards as a stooge for former colonial power Britain and other Western interests.And while the loan negotiations go on, analysts said any overt discussion of Zimbabwe by SADC leaders was unlikely.”I’d have a hard time imagining that anyone would bring it (Zimbabwe) up, especially as the ball is now in South Africa’s court,” said Ross Herbert of South African think tank Idasa.Herbert questioned the merit of the AU asking Chissano to mediate between Zanu-PF and the MDC, saying: “I think it’s kind of a token step to say ‘Look we are doing something’.”- Nampa- Reuters