Predicting or Forecasting

Even though we’re in January, I am already able to predict where I will be on Easter weekend this year.

Why is that so? It is because I have the knowledge, the resources and the ability to make that desire likely to come to pass. This may sound basic, but this is precisely what visionaries, futurists and strategists do.

They go beyond forecasting, they predict.

Forecasting and prediction both deal with the future, but forecasting relies strictly on analysing historical data and trends to estimate the future.

Prediction is when you anticipate future events by combing the past with your individual intuition, judgement, expertise and power.

When a president speaks about their views on the future, the markets and the world respond as if it were fact.

That is because when skill and reputation are combined with authority and power, that has the ability to define the future.

In other words, if you have a high level of expertise in a certain area, enough data about the past in that specific area and you combine it with your power or ability to affect that area, then you essentially are able to predict the future because you can create it.

This is the same approach we should have towards strategy and life. You need to determine the areas that are materially important to you or to the business and then understand what degree of control of influence you have over those areas.

To forecast is safe, but to predict requires you to put yourself on the line and play an active role in bringing that envisaged future to pass. In matters of strategic importance, you need to go beyond forecasting, into the daring world of prediction and action.

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