Contrary to popular belief, the future is not fixed. It is not a specific, predefined outcome at a specific time. It would be more accurate to say that the future is simply a wide range of possibilities.
A strategist must be able to identify these possible scenarios and go further to classify these scenarios into categories.
When we think about a range of futures, we can organise them into four categories, from the weakest to the strongest.
The first and weakest is the possible future. It is weak because it is the broadest term that basically includes anything that is not logically impossible. Possible is not good enough.
The next is a plausible future.
This is a step up from possible because it considers that this future is reasonable or believable given a set of circumstances or action.
The next level of future is a probable future. This indicates a high degree of likelihood.
A strategist would want to base any plan on a future that is at the very least, probable.
In addition to these three futures, one must also clearly identify their preferred future. This represents the future that individuals or groups desire to see happen.
It is what you want to happen in the future. It is usually stated by means of a vision or mission statement. Once you have all these four ranges defined, it is important to first compare how far your preferred future is from being possible, plausible or probable.
Herein lies the difference between a strategist and futurist.
A futurist goes a step further by applying action and effort to make their preferred future become the most probable future. In the same way, we should strive by all means to take our preferred future from possible, to inevitable.
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