Political Perspective

THERE won’t be a dull moment in ruling party politics this year, according to most observers who predict a continuation and probable escalation of the conflict which has already spilled over into the NUNW-affiliated unions and associated groups.

At the heart of the matter, the Sam Nujoma-Hidipo Hamutenya divide and issues related to this split. IT’S hard to judge at present which side is in the ascendancy.While the Nujoma camp received something of a blow with the return to Parliament of the man they wanted to keep out at all costs, namely Hamutenya, at the same time critics say that one would be wrong to underestimate the kind of clout still wielded by the founding and now former Namibian President.All attempts on the part of the ruling party itself to use carrot rather than stick tactics to get Nujoma to ‘go quietly’ in order to give incumbent President Hifikepunye Pohamba the chance to mend the deep divisions that have come about in Swapo, largely because of the way Nujoma handled the three-way contest for Presidential succession, have been fruitless.These included a generous package, manifold benefits, title of ‘Father of the Nation’ and many more.Even the efforts of a delegation of highly placed ruling party veterans who visited Nujoma to request him to step down from the Swapo Presidency were met with rejection.And, quite to the contrary, say some, the campaign for presidency-for-life for Nujoma is hotting up.So the tempo is likely to be stepped up, rather than diminished, as the factions polarise and attitudes harden further.President Pohamba is somewhere in the middle and likely to be hamstrung in all his efforts to bring about reconciliation unless he is able to take leadership of the Party and in this way, have additional muscle to bring the factions into line.Problem is, Namibia cannot and will not benefit from all this.It would certainly promote democracy to have more vigorous debate and even dissension at times within the ruling party, but deep divisions may simply result in good governance being forfeit along the way.The recent Swapo Central Committee ‘reshuffle’ of representatives to the various regions gives substance to the divisions rather than the contrary, and the approval of a huge new N$149 million headquarters for the ruling party shows that to date, despite a backlash to some extent, Nujoma still cannot be gainsaid and will continue to have his way for as long as he is permitted to.The former President clearly does not like, or even accept, retirement as an option and finds it hard to suddenly have to take second place in the political hierarchy.He continues to wield a lot of power as the leader of the ruling party, while his Presidential successor, Hifikepunye Pohamba, is relegated to the vice presidency, and as such, still has to do Nujoma’s bidding.There is certainly a core of Swapo stalwarts opposed to Nujoma.Personified by Hidipo Hamutenya, but not exclusively confined to either him or his camp, their support base will still need to be tested at Congress in 2007.Not to be underestimated either, are eminent persons such as former Prime Minister Hage Geingob, believed to be non-aligned as far as both the Nujoma and Hamutenya groupings are concerned.There are others like him in the ruling party, those not particularly happy with former President Nujoma but still inherently suspicious of the ambitions of Hamutenya.Pohamba is undoubtedly trying to keep the peace, but the very fact that he is attempting this brinkmanship is likely to be construed as accommodating of the anti-Nujoma faction.There is every reason to believe, given the above and many other issues, that the standoff won’t come to an end in the near future and that ruling party politics may be lively, possibly even to an extreme degree, in the months to come.IT’S hard to judge at present which side is in the ascendancy.While the Nujoma camp received something of a blow with the return to Parliament of the man they wanted to keep out at all costs, namely Hamutenya, at the same time critics say that one would be wrong to underestimate the kind of clout still wielded by the founding and now former Namibian President.All attempts on the part of the ruling party itself to use carrot rather than stick tactics to get Nujoma to ‘go quietly’ in order to give incumbent President Hifikepunye Pohamba the chance to mend the deep divisions that have come about in Swapo, largely because of the way Nujoma handled the three-way contest for Presidential succession, have been fruitless.These included a generous package, manifold benefits, title of ‘Father of the Nation’ and many more.Even the efforts of a delegation of highly placed ruling party veterans who visited Nujoma to request him to step down from the Swapo Presidency were met with rejection.And, quite to the contrary, say some, the campaign for presidency-for-life for Nujoma is hotting up.So the tempo is likely to be stepped up, rather than diminished, as the factions polarise and attitudes harden further.President Pohamba is somewhere in the middle and likely to be hamstrung in all his efforts to bring about reconciliation unless he is able to take leadership of the Party and in this way, have additional muscle to bring the factions into line.Problem is, Namibia cannot and will not benefit from all this.It would certainly promote democracy to have more vigorous debate and even dissension at times within the ruling party, but deep divisions may simply result in good governance being forfeit along the way.The recent Swapo Central Committee ‘reshuffle’ of representatives to the various regions gives substance to the divisions rather than the contrary, and the approval of a huge new N$149 million headquarters for the ruling party shows that to date, despite a backlash to some extent, Nujoma still cannot be gainsaid and will continue to have his way for as long as he is permitted to.The former President clearly does not like, or even accept, retirement as an option and finds it hard to suddenly have to take second place in the political hierarchy.He continues to wield a lot of power as the leader of the ruling party, while his Presidential successor, Hifikepunye Pohamba, is relegated to the vice presidency, and as such, still has to do Nujoma’s bidding.There is certainly a core of Swapo stalwarts opposed to Nujoma.Personified by Hidipo Hamutenya, but not exclusively confined to either him or his camp, their support base will still need to be tested at Congress in 2007.Not to be underestimated either, are eminent persons such as former Prime Minister Hage Geingob, believed to be non-aligned as far as both the Nujoma and Hamutenya groupings are concerned.There are others like him in the ruling party, those not particularly happy with former President Nujoma but still inherently suspicious of the ambitions of Hamutenya.Pohamba is undoubtedly trying to keep the peace, but the very fact that he is attempting this brinkmanship is likely to be construed as accommodating of the anti-Nujoma faction.There is every reason to believe, given the above and many other issues, that the standoff won’t come to an end in the near future and that ruling party politics may be lively, possibly even to an extreme degree, in the months to come.