On the Drama Surrounding Ukraine

On 24 February 2022, Russia entered Ukraine for a ‘Special Military Operation’.

Since then, there has been intense fighting for more than 1 000 days.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has captured more than 20% of Ukrainian territory and both sides have experienced a meat-grinder situation.

What started off as an ‘invasion’ has grown into a huge geopolitical mess, tearing apart established borders, risking the Trans-Atlantic relationship that kept the so-called international system together for 80 years.

It has infused dangerous divisions in the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), and is fuelling a move towards a new global order with new ground rules.

At the outset, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was all but a hero of the West.

In no time, he was Time’s ‘Man of the Year’ and his greatness was pushed by especially liberal news outlets.

Biblically speaking, Zelenskyy was painted as a David-like figure taking on Goliath, the ‘monster’ Putin, who revels in reliving the glory days of the Great Russia founded by Ivan the Terrible, the Grand Prince of Moscow and Russia.

Europe sensed something threatening was about to happen.

And, an information war waged began in full force.

Now, there has been what some see as a shock ‘political defeat’ of the liberal world in a Western capital, Washington DC.

Chaos has been unleashed and has upended geopolitics as we know it.

Zelenskyy and his Western friends can feel the wall behind them. 
 
CRUNCH TIME

In Germany, the country’s domestic democratic system has seen the CDU’s Friedrich Merz emerge as a likely ‘saviour’ in his country.

Last week, he lobbed a bombshell into the fray by saying it is five minutes to midnight for Europe, a continent that gambled irresponsibly by outsourcing its security and created economic and security dependency on the United States. 

In the midst of this mess, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa, for his part, is trying to play clever diplomatic games, seemingly against all expectations.

He has invited Zelenskyy for a state visit. Why, many would want to know?

The G-20 president, who boasts that South Africa has made history by hosting this ‘important’ world forum on African soil for the first time, saw a gap to get Europe’s active support in his David-Goliath duel with Trump, I think.

Is he risking his close Russia alliance? We can’t say at this stage.

Is he rooting for a diplomatic legacy at any cost as his political life could possibly be over by 2027 – when infighting in South Africa’s ruling party is expected to fully burst into the open at the ANC National Conference?

Has ego taken over? Or is Ramaphosa merely basking in the international limelight of the G-20? 

Fascinating geopolitical dramas are playing out before our eyes. We wait with baited breath in the face of massive changes and the world reshaping itself.

• Pius Dunaiski is a former Namibian diplomat.

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