Nujoma’s Last Throw Of The Dice

ODDLY, I wrote in this newspaper for the first time ten years ago, in a similar political context in which I am writing now, about political succession in Swapo.

But there are obvious differences between these two contexts. The first stark difference at the time was that I wrote after the electoral defeat of Dr Hage Geingob for the position of Vice President.My argument then in support of Dr Geingob, based on his experience and work, was that he represented Swapo’s best chance at governing the country.Second, it would be a means of transcending Africa’s politics of ethnicity through a non-token appointment.Another obvious difference today is that the former PM was by all accounts asked to stand for the position of VP by the founding President of Swapo.Third, this happened at a time least expected, as Geingob was considered for the biggest part of the past four years a political outsider.He was not a member of the Politburo, nor was he in Nujoma’s inner coterie.But, the wheels of history have since turned and this former Prime Minister is now assuming the same position he had wanted so badly ten years ago.To recast this comeback, one senior politician said to me earlier during the year: ‘President Nujoma offers jobs and we hardly say no, nor do we demand clarity about the intentions of the ‘old man”.Nujoma is of a maximum leadership tradition which believes that the destiny of a nation is tied to a leader’s personal destiny.But what is remarkable about Nujoma’s support for Geingob is that he rectified what could be perceived in recent years as a flaw in his method: a profound distaste for strong, independent-minded politicians or the intellectual wing of the party.Given the choices that he or Swapo faced during this congress, I would assume that Nujoma is passing into history confidently.He essentially leaves the ruling party in the hands of two distinct leaders who offer different competencies and perspectives to the internal political process in Swapo.Their political destinies are now intertwined, not necessarily out of choice, but condition.This is what the top leader wanted, and they didn’t have much wiggle-room.With regard to Pohamba, I argued at the height of Swapo’s presidential nomination in 2004 that Pohamba would be a one-term transitional President.I defined his role as that of passing the mantle of leadership from one generation to the next during his term.This was perhaps premature, as nothing at present suggests that he will do so.Besides he is under no obligation to be a one-term President.But whether Pohamba serves one term or whether he is now President of Swapo is not of much interest because these expectations and demands were there for him to assume both positions.It is why we need to take a closer look at the meaning of Dr Geingob assuming the Vice Presidency of the Party.What does it mean for the ideological direction of Swapo.The issue at stake here is not necessarily one of looking at Geingob as ‘comeback kid’ and political succession, as many would want to believe.Swapo has no ingrained culture about a succession framework and the VP position is no carte blanche to become their presidential candidate in 2009 or thereafter.Swapo’s most recent history is illuminating in that sense.So, let’s look at this position differently.Pohamba has been at it before with glossy words but his maiden speech as President of Swapo nonetheless set the tone for a new engagement on the part of cadres.Thinking within certain quarters of the Party dwarfs the challenges we face as nation to the extent that it’s not even funny.The pettiness of such politics is threatening Swapo’s ability to capture new constituencies, and it also dangerously disengages sections of members and sympathisers.Therefore, at present, what is in abundance within Swapo is not only scepticism about new leaders and their intentions, but there is also desperation and optimism.Scepticism about new leaders is obvious because the RDP is threatening to eat out the soul of Swapo and its dominance of our political scene.Such a scenario is highly probable and is no longer the invention of political analysts or Swapo doomsayers.Conversely, there is also optimism because new leadership could mean refreshing ideas about what Swapo should be today.It could mean new working methods.In that sense it is an opportunity.Geingob becoming VP is by no means Nujoma’s reward to him for not having succumbed to the culture of being a victim.This is one of Nujoma’s most salient initiatives as President of Swapo.These were signs of a worried outgoing President communicating an explicit message to the rank and file about where Swapo should go.What we know about Dr.Geingob is that he has long represented the ‘can-do-the-job’ face of the ruling party.Of the few reasons I can imagine, it is perhaps the most plausible reason.The fact that he is not from Swapo’s electoral bastion comes a distant second.As a transactional leader, expectations are high: he has to legitimise Swapo as a forward-looking political party with the intended consequence being to strengthen public support and electoral credibility.In this role, Geingob must act as a broker concerned with upholding the collegiate face of the ruling party by balancing rival individuals, factions and interests against one another.He must be audacious and lead that transition of ideas, and serve as the link between the old and the new.In fact, Geingob’s strength lies in his ability to understand the past of the party, but also importantly the demands of our times.He would have failed those with high expectations if he does not reconcile these two complementary, but often contradictory tendencies within the party.We are too aware that for Dr Geingob to drive Swapo into a forward-looking and policy-oriented 21st-century political party could be a long and arduous exercise.He could suffer the fate of reformers (they hardly ever make that final step above).Still, it’s time for Dr Geingob to get the ball moving down the field.* Alfredo Tjiurimo Hengari is a PhD fellow in political science at the University of Paris- Panthéon Sorbonne, France.The first stark difference at the time was that I wrote after the electoral defeat of Dr Hage Geingob for the position of Vice President.My argument then in support of Dr Geingob, based on his experience and work, was that he represented Swapo’s best chance at governing the country.Second, it would be a means of transcending Africa’s politics of ethnicity through a non-token appointment.Another obvious difference today is that the former PM was by all accounts asked to stand for the position of VP by the founding President of Swapo.Third, this happened at a time least expected, as Geingob was considered for the biggest part of the past four years a political outsider.He was not a member of the Politburo, nor was he in Nujoma’s inner coterie.But, the wheels of history have since turned and this former Prime Minister is now assuming the same position he had wanted so badly ten years ago.To recast this comeback, one senior politician said to me earlier during the year: ‘President Nujoma offers jobs and we hardly say no, nor do we demand clarity about the intentions of the ‘old man”.Nujoma is of a maximum leadership tradition which believes that the destiny of a nation is tied to a leader’s personal destiny.But what is remarkable about Nujoma’s support for Geingob is that he rectified what could be perceived in recent years as a flaw in his method: a profound distaste for strong, independent-minded politicians or the intellectual wing of the party.Given the choices that he or Swapo faced during this congress, I would assume that Nujoma is passing into history confidently.He essentially leaves the ruling party in the hands of two distinct leaders who offer different competencies and perspectives to the internal political process in Swapo.Their political destinies are now intertwined, not necessarily out of choice, but condition.This is what the top leader wanted, and they didn’t have much wiggle-room.With regard to Pohamba, I argued at the height of Swapo’s presidential nomination in 2004 that Pohamba would be a one-term transitional President.I defined his role as that of passing the mantle of leadership from one generation to the next during his term.This was perhaps premature, as nothing at present suggests that he will do so.Besides he is under no obligation to be a one-term President.But whether Pohamba serves one term or whether he is now President of Swapo is not of much interest because these expectations and demands were there for him to assume both positions.It is why we need to take a closer look at the meaning of Dr Geingob assuming the Vice Presidency of the Party.What does it mean for the ideological direction of Swapo.The issue at stake here is not necessarily one of looking at Geingob as ‘comeback kid’ and political succession, as many would want to believe.Swapo has no ingrained culture about a succession framework and the VP position is no carte blanche to become their presidential candidate in 2009 or thereafter.Swapo’s most recent history is illuminating in that sense.So, let’s look at this position differently.Pohamba has been at it before with glossy words but his maiden speech as President of Swapo nonetheless set the tone for a new engagement on the part of cadres.Thinking within certain quarters of the Party dwarfs the challenges we face as nation to the extent that it’s not even funny.The pettiness of such politics is threatening Swapo’s ability to capture new constituencies, and it also dangerously disengages sections of members and sympathisers.Therefore, at present, what is in abundance within Swapo is not only scepticism about new leaders and their intentions, but there is also desperation and optimism.Scepticism about new leaders is obvious because the RDP is threatening to eat out the soul of Swapo and its dominance of our political scene.Such a scenario is highly probable and is no longer the invention of political analysts or Swapo doomsayers.Conversely, there is also optimism because new leadership could mean refreshing ideas about what Swapo should be today.It could mean new working methods.In that sense it is an opportunity.Geingob becoming VP is by no means Nujoma’s reward to him for not having succumbed to the culture of being a victim.This is one of Nujoma’s most salient initiatives as President of Swapo.These were signs of a worried outgoing President communicating an explicit message to the rank and file about where Swapo should go.What we know about Dr.Geingob is that he has long represented the ‘can-do-the-job’ face of the ruling party.Of the few reasons I can imagine, it is perhaps the most plausible reason.The fact that he is not from Swapo’s electoral bastion comes a distant second.As a transactional leader, expectations are high: he has to legitimise Swapo as a forward-looking political party with the intended consequence being to strengthen public support and electoral credibility.In this role, Geingob must act as a broker concerned with upholding the collegiate face of the ruling party by balancing rival individuals, factions and interests against one another.He must be audacious and lead that transition of ideas, and serve as the link between the old and the new.In fact, Geingob’s strength lies in his ability to understand the past of the party, but also importantly the demands of our times.He would have failed those with high expectations if he does not reconcile these two complementary, but often contradictory tendencies within the party.We are too aware that for Dr Geingob to drive Swapo into a forward-looking and policy-oriented 21st-century political party could be a long and arduous exercise.He could suffer the fate of reformers (they hardly ever make that final step above).Still, it’s time for Dr Geingob to get the ball moving down the field.* Alfredo Tjiurimo Hengari is a PhD fellow in political science at the University of Paris- Panthéon Sorbonne, France.