No let-up in terror risk five years after Sept 11

LONDON – Is the world any safer? Five years after the September 11 attacks, governments have invested billions of dollars to strengthen their anti-terrorist defences, and tighter security checks have become a routine part of daily life around the world.

But increased awareness has arguably been matched by a rising threat, as a more diffuse and elusive al Qaeda has mobilised recruits among disaffected young Muslims in the heart of Western societies. “I believe the threat has probably increased in western Europe, but we have responded and we are more resilient.And therefore risk, if it’s a product of those two, is probably similar,” said Rob Preston, terrorism risk consultant at AON insurance brokerage in London.”I certainly don’t think we’re any safer, put it that way.”The Bush administration issued a report on Tuesday saying the United States was “not yet safe” from a degraded but still dangerous al Qaeda threat.Al Qaeda’s 2001 suicide hijackings killed 2,992 people and ushered in an age of attacks designed not just for shock and fear – like those carried out by many traditional guerrilla groups – but to kill vast numbers of people.The advent of what some analysts call “hyperterrorism” forced security planners to confront apocalyptic scenarios, from “dirty bombs” in shipping containers to germ warfare attacks on transit systems or reservoirs.’NEARLY ALL’ VULNERABLE Five years on, which areas of the infrastructure are still vulnerable? “Nearly all of them,” said Dan Inbar, head of Washington- and Israeli-based consultancy Homeland Security Research.”In our eyes, a (shipping) container is a 3-tonne-payload guided missile which for 2 000 bucks you can send from Jakarta to the heart of New York, London or wherever.”You just have to put 3 tonnes of fertiliser mix to have the effect of 15 tonnes of TNT.I don’t tell you anything which the bad guys don’t know.”Inbar is also scathing about what he sees as a lack of progress since September 11 in aviation security, with continued over-reliance on old-fashioned metal detector gateways.”A terrorist doesn’t need to have a metal weapon.He can use a plastic knife.He can go into an aircraft, break a glass and make a knife out of the glass.He can break a Coca-Cola can and make a knife out of it.”A metal detector costs less than $10 000 to buy, but $1 million in wages to operate over a six- to seven-year life, Inbar said.”All the metal detectors you have around are actually an aspirin for a cancer patient, and a very expensive one.”British police announced last month they had foiled a major plot to blow up airliners in mid-flight over the Atlantic by smuggling liquid explosives on board.While al Qaeda was known to have plotted similar attacks as far back as 1995, there is still no widely available system at international airports to detect explosives in liquid form.Experts in security technology call for a shift in approach to help identify potential attackers by their behaviour.”We can’t just trust technology to find the explosives …We have to look for the person,” said Omer Laviv, chief operations officer of Israel’s Athena GS3, which is working with European firms on ways to make hijacking planes more difficult.TERRORIST BEHAVIOUR? Laviv specialises in abnormal behaviour analysis, which enables computers to spot subtle physical characteristics that might betray a possible terrorist.”This is not the profiling of …Muslim people or black people….It’s nothing to do with where you were born or what is your colour,” Laviv said in a telephone interview.”It’s got a lot to do with how nervous are you, what is your body temperature, what is the speed of your rapid eye movement, the quickness of your speech and other behavioural attributes.”The technology is central to a European Union anti-hijack project that would place video and audio sensors throughout an aircraft cabin to minutely observe passengers’ behaviour.Laviv believes that within six to 10 years the system could be deployed not only on planes but in airports and other public buildings such as train stations.Militants have favoured rail networks, in particular, as easy targets for attacks like those that killed 191 people in Madrid in 2004, 52 in London last year and more than 180 in Mumbai in July.AON’s Preston said al Qaeda may revert to its “default mode” of attacks on mass transit systems and other soft targets after the failure of the airline plot.But it is likely to return at some point to the quest for a mega-attack.”They still have this appetite for hard targets, for the spectacular,” he said.In al Qaeda’s eyes, such attacks mobilise support because they “shake the rest of the Muslims out of their slumber and say: ‘Look, we are the vanguard, you should follow us,’” Preston said.”There’s always going to be an attraction to iconic targets.”Nampa-Reuters”I believe the threat has probably increased in western Europe, but we have responded and we are more resilient.And therefore risk, if it’s a product of those two, is probably similar,” said Rob Preston, terrorism risk consultant at AON insurance brokerage in London.”I certainly don’t think we’re any safer, put it that way.”The Bush administration issued a report on Tuesday saying the United States was “not yet safe” from a degraded but still dangerous al Qaeda threat.Al Qaeda’s 2001 suicide hijackings killed 2,992 people and ushered in an age of attacks designed not just for shock and fear – like those carried out by many traditional guerrilla groups – but to kill vast numbers of people.The advent of what some analysts call “hyperterrorism” forced security planners to confront apocalyptic scenarios, from “dirty bombs” in shipping containers to germ warfare attacks on transit systems or reservoirs.’NEARLY ALL’ VULNERABLE Five years on, which areas of the infrastructure are still vulnerable? “Nearly all of them,” said Dan Inbar, head of Washington- and Israeli-based consultancy Homeland Security Research.”In our eyes, a (shipping) container is a 3-tonne-payload guided missile which for 2 000 bucks you can send from Jakarta to the heart of New York, London or wherever.”You just have to put 3 tonnes of fertiliser mix to have the effect of 15 tonnes of TNT.I don’t tell you anything which the bad guys don’t know.”Inbar is also scathing about what he sees as a lack of progress since September 11 in aviation security, with continued over-reliance on old-fashioned metal detector gateways.”A terrorist doesn’t need to have a metal weapon.He can use a plastic knife.He can go into an aircraft, break a glass and make a knife out of the glass.He can break a Coca-Cola can and make a knife out of it.”A metal detector costs less than $10 000 to buy, but $1 million in wages to operate over a six- to seven-year life, Inbar said.”All the metal detectors you have around are actually an aspirin for a cancer patient, and a very expensive one.”British police announced last month they had foiled a major plot to blow up airliners in mid-flight over the Atlantic by smuggling liquid explosives on board.While al Qaeda was known to have plotted similar attacks as far back as 1995, there is still no widely available system at international airports to detect explosives in liquid form.Experts in security technology call for a shift in approach to help identify potential attackers by their behaviour.”We can’t just trust technology to find the explosives …We have to look for the person,” said Omer Laviv, chief operations officer of Israel’s Athena GS3, which is working with European firms on ways to make hijacking planes more difficult.TERRORIST BEHAVIOUR? Laviv specialises in abnormal behaviour analysis, which enables computers to spot subtle physical characteristics that might betray a possible terrorist.”This is not the profiling of …Muslim people or black people….It’s nothing to do with where you were born or what is your colour,” Laviv said in a telephone interview.”It’s got a lot to do with how nervous are you, what is your body temperature, what is the speed of your rapid eye movement, the quickness of your speech and other behavioural attributes.”The technology is central to a European Union anti-hijack project that would place video and audio sensors throughout an aircraft cabin to minutely observe passengers’ behaviour.Laviv believes that within six to 10 years the system could be deployed not only on planes but in airports and other public buildings such as train stations.Militants have favoured rail networks, in particular, as easy targets for attacks like those that killed 191 people in Madrid in 2004, 52 in London last year and more than 180 in Mumbai in July.AON’s Preston said al Qaeda may revert to its “default mode” of attacks on mass transit systems and other soft targets after the failure of the airline plot.But it is likely to return at some point to the quest for a mega-attack.”They still have this appetite for hard targets, for the spectacular,” he said.In al Qaeda’s eyes, such attacks mobilise support because they “shake the rest of the Muslims out of their slumber and say: ‘Look, we are the vanguard, you should follow us,’” Preston said.”There’s always going to be an attraction to iconic targets.”Nampa-Reuters