Namibia should brace herself for a difficult rainy season, with the Enso forecast pointing towards a strong possibility of severe drought starting this year.
While Enso is referred to as a single phenomenon, it occurs in three phases: Neutral, La Niña (a cooling of the ocean surface) and El Niño (a warming of the ocean surface).
Unfortunately for Namibia, El Niño directly correlates with a dry season or even drought. Even more concerningly, the probabilities of a strong El Niño, often referred to as a Super El Niño, are so high that a severe drought is likely.
In 2024, Namibia experienced a drought so severe that a national state of emergency was declared, with the event referred to as “the worst drought Namibia has faced in 100 years.”
That drought occurred during a very strong El Niño and this year’s El Niño is expected to be among the strongest events on record.
As a dry country, water security is a major concern and dam levels repeatedly dip to concerning levels.
In December 2024, the Hardap Dam was only at 5.5% of its full capacity, putting residents dependent on dam water at risk.
The country’s crops are similarly exposed. The forecasted severity of this drought would be catastrophic for crop farmers, echoing 2024, when the government permitted the culling of wild animals to offer some drought relief as food costs rose and food-insecure households struggled severely.
The incoming El Niño is expected to last from October to March 2027, coinciding with the country’s critical planting and rainy season.
The 2024 El Niño also fell during this critical period, and the following harvest was devastated, with total crop production 56% lower than in 2023 and 70% lower than in 2022.
All in all, the country should brace herself for a rough period when the so-called Super El Niño arrives.
