Namibia Cannot Ignore Rising Tensions Between China and Taiwan

NAMIBIA’S economy is deeply tied to China.

It is our second-largest trading partner after South Africa and one of its most significant investors in key sectors such as mining, infrastructure, and technology.

A large share of Namibia’s mineral and agricultural exports are destined for the Chinese market, with uranium alone accounting for roughly a quarter of total exports in 2025.

China also plays a central role in financing infrastructure and development projects across the country.

Yet, rising tensions between China and Taiwan have raised global concerns about the possibility of military conflict, a development that could disrupt trade, investment, and supply chains worldwide.

After 35 years of diplomatic relations, Namibia’s economic stability remains closely tied to Beijing leaving the country exposed should conflict erupt in East Asia.

China is currently Namibia’s largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI), accounting for nearly 30% of total FDI.

POTENTIAL PRESSURES

Over the past decade, Chinese capital has helped finance major infrastructure projects, mining operations, and housing initiatives.

The majority Chinese-owned Husab Uranium Mine alone employs thousands of Namibians and represents a significant share of the country’s mining workforce.

These investments have contributed to job creation and economic expansion. However, a military conflict between China and Taiwan could interrupt this flow of capital.

In the event of prolonged instability, Beijing may redirect financial resources toward domestic priorities, including defence, or face sanctions that limit overseas spending. For Namibia, this would likely translate into delayed projects, slower job creation, and greater pressure on government finances as alternative funding sources are sought.

Trade presents another layer of vulnerability.

In 2025, trade between Namibia and China surpassed N$2 billion, reflecting the depth of their economic ties.

Namibia exports mineral resources and agricultural products to China while importing machinery, electronics, and manufactured goods essential for infrastructure and industrial development.

Any escalation of conflict, particularly if accompanied by sanctions or disruptions to key maritime routes such as the Malacca Strait, could destabilise global shipping networks.

Higher transportation costs and delayed shipments would inevitably follow.

Namibia would not be immune.

Export earnings could decline, imported goods could become more expensive or scarce, and small local businesses that depend on Chinese imports, including vehicle dealers and retail traders, would feel the strain.

Ultimately, such disruptions would place additional pressure on economic growth and government revenue. 

MINING SECTOR

Finally, Namibia’s mining sector highlights just how exposed the country could be in the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan.

Mining remains the backbone of the national economy.

In 2024 it generated over N$50 billion in revenue and contributed about 13.3% to the country’s gross domestic product and accounted for nearly half of the country’s export earnings.

Uranium, much of which is exported to China, has consistently topped Namibia’s export list in recent years.

China is not only a major buyer but also a significant investor in the uranium industry. If a conflict, sanctions, or economic instability were to disrupt China’s economy, Namibia would feel the impact almost immediately.

Government revenue would decline, pressure on the national currency could intensify, and jobs in mining-dependent regions, particularly the Erongo region, could be placed at risk.

Such a scenario would highlight just how closely Namibia’s economic stability is tied to developments far beyond its borders.

DISRUPTION AND
DIVERSIFICATION

Geographically, Namibia may be distant from China, but economically it is far closer than many realise.

Some may argue that Namibia’s diversified trade relationships, including partnerships within the European Union, the Southern African Customs Union, and its participation in the African Continental Free Trade Area would cushion the impact of any external conflict.

Others may contend that China’s economic strength makes a prolonged disruption unlikely.

However, the scale of Namibia’s economic exposure to China suggests that even a short-term disruption would have significant consequences.

A military conflict between China and Taiwan would not simply be a distant foreign crisis; it would have tangible effects at home.
While such a conflict is not inevitable, the mere possibility should prompt serious national reflection.

Namibia must prioritise diversifying trade partners, especially when it comes to key minerals, to strengthen its resilience against external shocks.

In an increasingly uncertain global environment, reducing vulnerability is not optional but essential for long-term economic security.

Vaino Shapenga is a political science student, with a focus on international relations and diplomacy, at the University of Namibia.

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