Mbeki eyes ANC third term: analysts

JOHANNESBURG – South Africa’s president Thabo Mbeki may opt for a third term leading the ruling ANC, embroiled in a divisive succession battle, if the party fails to put up alternative candidates he trusts, analysts say.

As the African National Congress prepares to elect a new president in December, Mbeki, 64, is being sounded out to retain the job to keep at bay candidates some think unsuitable, like his controversial deputy Jacob Zuma. Steven Friedman, a researcher at the Johannesburg-based Institute for Democracy in South Africa, said Mbeki would be tempted to stand if ‘he thinks he is going to be landed with a situation in which the next leader is someone he feels very uncomfortable with’.The ANC leadership is the traditional stepping stone to the country’s highest office, but the constitution does not allow Mbeki to remain South Africa’s president beyond his second term ending 2009.There is no such limit on the party presidency, however, which bears much influence on the executive office of the country.The two posts have not been occupied by different people since the ANC came to power in 1994.While party tradition frowns upon contenders for the ANC leadership campaigning openly, the race is heating up behind closed doors.The ANC’s Eastern Cape provincial branch resolved to nominate Mbeki for a third term, which he did not decline or accept, saying only: “Look, I was born in the ANC (and) I will die in the ANC.”And ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe has said a leader could serve up to 17 times if nominated.Mbeki’s main rival is Zuma, who has courted controversy with a slew of legal battles but stayed in the race after being acquitted of rape last year and having a corruption case thrown out of court.”The gossip of the day is that this reprieve is temporary and prospects of him being recharged are extremely high,” said Friedman.Zuma has said he would accept nomination for the party presidency, putting him in contention for the country’s top post, even if he were re-charged.He attracted criticism during his rape trial for admitting to having had unprotected sex with an HIV-positive family friend half his age and for stating he showered afterwards for protection.Zuma was fired as South Africa’s deputy president after his financial adviser was sentenced to 15 years in jail for corruption, and he was subsequently charged with related crimes.He has also stirred up controversy with anti-gay comments ill-received in a country that recently recognised same-sex marriages.Zuma, 65, has denied actively campaigning despite making political speeches around the country.”The more Zuma became a serious candidate the more Mbeki was prevailed upon to start exploring making himself available,” Adam Habib, a political analyst with the Human Sciences Research Council in Pretoria told AFP.While analysts agree the best solution is to find a compromise candidate, high-flying businessman Tokyo Sexwale is the only person to have admitted being lobbied to stand, stressing he would not want to be nominated to push anyone’s agenda.”People are working very hard that somehow unity is reached behind the scenes,” said Friedman, adding this was a missed chance to create a new precedent with leaders chosen in an open contest.Political observer Aubrey Matshiqi said Mbeki may appear to be making himself available so as to buy time to identify a candidate “created in his own image”.”However the battle will not end here, as a new one will be fought (by Zuma supporters) to ensure whoever Mbeki has anointed does not go on to become president of the country.”Mbeki is credited with much of South Africa’s economic stability, but lacks the charm and warmth of a populist leader like Zuma, who projects himself as a cheerleader of the working class.Friedman said many people felt the government had become too centralised under Mbeki, who is seen as intolerant of dissent.The president is also widely criticised for his public silence on human rights abuses in neighbouring Zimbabwe, and for his perceived denialist stance on South Africa’s AIDS pandemic.But Zuma’s darkened legal record has left many fearing he could be a disaster as president.Sexwale is close to Nobel peace prize laureate and former president Nelson Mandela, but does not have roots in the country’s powerful trade union federation COSATU – a key ally of the ANC.Other likely candidates are Motlanthe, businessman Cyril Ramaphosa who lost out at a party congress to Mbeki 10 years ago, and foreign affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the ex-wife of Zuma.ANC branches are set to nominate their candidates later this year.Nampa-AFPSteven Friedman, a researcher at the Johannesburg-based Institute for Democracy in South Africa, said Mbeki would be tempted to stand if ‘he thinks he is going to be landed with a situation in which the next leader is someone he feels very uncomfortable with’.The ANC leadership is the traditional stepping stone to the country’s highest office, but the constitution does not allow Mbeki to remain South Africa’s president beyond his second term ending 2009.There is no such limit on the party presidency, however, which bears much influence on the executive office of the country.The two posts have not been occupied by different people since the ANC came to power in 1994.While party tradition frowns upon contenders for the ANC leadership campaigning openly, the race is heating up behind closed doors.The ANC’s Eastern Cape provincial branch resolved to nominate Mbeki for a third term, which he did not decline or accept, saying only: “Look, I was born in the ANC (and) I will die in the ANC.”And ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe has said a leader could serve up to 17 times if nominated.Mbeki’s main rival is Zuma, who has courted controversy with a slew of legal battles but stayed in the race after being acquitted of rape last year and having a corruption case thrown out of court.”The gossip of the day is that this reprieve is temporary and prospects of him being recharged are extremely high,” said Friedman.Zuma has said he would accept nomination for the party presidency, putting him in contention for the country’s top post, even if he were re-charged.He attracted criticism during his rape trial for admitting to having had unprotected sex with an HIV-positive family friend half his age and for stating he showered afterwards for protection.Zuma was fired as South Africa’s deputy president after his financial adviser was sentenced to 15 years in jail for corruption, and he was subsequently charged with related crimes.He has also stirred up controversy with anti-gay comments ill-received in a country that recently recognised same-sex marriages.Zuma, 65, has denied actively campaigning despite making political speeches around the country.”The more Zuma became a serious candidate the more Mbeki was prevailed upon to start exploring making himself available,” Adam Habib, a political analyst with the Human Sciences Research Council in Pretoria told AFP.While analysts agree the best solution is to find a compromise candidate, high-flying businessman Tokyo Sexwale is the only person to have admitted being lobbied to stand, stressing he would not want to be nominated to push anyone’s agenda.”People are working very hard that somehow unity is reached behind the scenes,” said Friedman, adding this was a missed chance to create a new precedent with leaders chosen in an open contest.Political observer Aubrey Matshiqi said Mbeki may appear to be making himself available so as to buy time to identify a candidate “created in his own image”.”However the battle will not end here, as a new one will be fought (by Zuma supporters) to ensure whoever Mbeki has anointed does not go on to become president of the country.”Mbeki is credited with much of South Africa’s economic stability, but lacks the charm and warmth of a populist leader like Zuma, who projects himself as a cheerleader of the working class.Friedman said many people felt the government had become too centralised under Mbeki, who is seen as intolerant of dissent.The president is also widely criticised for his public silence on human rights abuses in neighbouring Zimbabwe, and for his perceived denialist stance on South Africa’s AIDS pandemic.But Zuma’s darkened legal record has left many fearing he could be a disaster as president.Sexwale is close to Nobel peace prize laureate and former president Nelson Mandela, but does not have roots in the country’s powerful trade union federation COSATU – a key ally of the ANC.Other likely candidates are Motlanthe, businessman Cyril Ramaphosa who lost out at a party congress to Mbeki 10 years ago, and foreign affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the ex-wife of Zuma.ANC branches are set to nominate their candidates later this year.Nampa-AFP