Malawi, Zambia may rival SA as breadbasket

JOHANNESBURG – Malawi and Zambia could in a few years rival South Africa as the regional breadbasket as their governments plough more money into farming.

South Africa, which has dominated the region’s maize export market for years, could meet the challenge by shifting resources to crops used for animal feed, analysts said. South Africa, as the continent’s wealthiest economy, has superior transport infrastructure and farming methods.But Zambia and Malawi, blessed with better farming climates and more funding, could muscle in on its traditional export markets.”The potential is there to outproduce South Africa by far,” said Ernst Janovsky, head of agriculture at South Africa’s First National Bank.”In four to five years Zambia should outproduce South Africa if the infrastructure is in place to export.”He pointed out that last year Zambia had already outdone South Africa as a maize supplier to Zimbabwe – one of the biggest importers of the staple grain in the region since a political crisis sent its own once substantial output spiralling down.BETTER LOCATIONS Some question whether the two minnows can meet optimistic crop forecasts or overcome the hurdles of poor infrastructure.Others say they may benefit from their closer location to countries like Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana and even Tanzania further east.”Zambia has potential in the region.They can export to Zimbabwe, the DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo), they can go into Malawi.They are next door neighbours,” one trader in Johannesburg said.”It’s a question of economics.”Moreover, Zambia has vast untapped water resources, while Malawi has large expanses of underutilised arable land.These factors could transform them into regional food giants – granted they can draw sufficient investment.Malawi last month forecast a maize surplus of one million tonnes and Zambia said it should produce about 600 000 tonnes more than it needs.South Africa, on the other hand, has been hit by one of its frequent droughts and expects to suffer a deficit of 300 000 tonnes this season.Zambian and Malawian officials say cash injections have helped production after years of persistent drought, whereas post-apartheid South Africa has cut back support in the form of agricultural subsidies and tariffs.ANNUAL SUPPORT South Africa has reduced its annual support to farmers to five per cent of gross farm receipts from 10-15 per cent a decade ago, according to the OECD group of industrialised nations.In contrast, Zambia this season provided subsidised seed and pesticides to small-scale farmers worth $36 million and plans to spend $25 million over five years on agriculture.Malawi has also rolled out a similar fertiliser subsidy scheme.Nick Vink, chair of the department of agricultural economics at the University of Stellenbosch, said it need not be all bad for South Africa, provided it switches its resources to high-demand products for animal feed it now has to import.”You’ll probably see a shift.We won’t produce a surplus (of maize) anymore and use more of those resources for crops like soybeans and sunflowers,” he told Reuters.”It doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game – we can both win.”Nampa-ReutersSouth Africa, as the continent’s wealthiest economy, has superior transport infrastructure and farming methods.But Zambia and Malawi, blessed with better farming climates and more funding, could muscle in on its traditional export markets.”The potential is there to outproduce South Africa by far,” said Ernst Janovsky, head of agriculture at South Africa’s First National Bank.”In four to five years Zambia should outproduce South Africa if the infrastructure is in place to export.”He pointed out that last year Zambia had already outdone South Africa as a maize supplier to Zimbabwe – one of the biggest importers of the staple grain in the region since a political crisis sent its own once substantial output spiralling down.BETTER LOCATIONS Some question whether the two minnows can meet optimistic crop forecasts or overcome the hurdles of poor infrastructure.Others say they may benefit from their closer location to countries like Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana and even Tanzania further east.”Zambia has potential in the region.They can export to Zimbabwe, the DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo), they can go into Malawi.They are next door neighbours,” one trader in Johannesburg said.”It’s a question of economics.”Moreover, Zambia has vast untapped water resources, while Malawi has large expanses of underutilised arable land.These factors could transform them into regional food giants – granted they can draw sufficient investment.Malawi last month forecast a maize surplus of one million tonnes and Zambia said it should produce about 600 000 tonnes more than it needs.South Africa, on the other hand, has been hit by one of its frequent droughts and expects to suffer a deficit of 300 000 tonnes this season.Zambian and Malawian officials say cash injections have helped production after years of persistent drought, whereas post-apartheid South Africa has cut back support in the form of agricultural subsidies and tariffs.ANNUAL SUPPORT South Africa has reduced its annual support to farmers to five per cent of gross farm receipts from 10-15 per cent a decade ago, according to the OECD group of industrialised nations.In contrast, Zambia this season provided subsidised seed and pesticides to small-scale farmers worth $36 million and plans to spend $25 million over five years on agriculture.Malawi has also rolled out a similar fertiliser subsidy scheme.Nick Vink, chair of the department of agricultural economics at the University of Stellenbosch, said it need not be all bad for South Africa, provided it switches its resources to high-demand products for animal feed it now has to import.”You’ll probably see a shift.We won’t produce a surplus (of maize) anymore and use more of those resources for crops like soybeans and sunflowers,” he told Reuters.”It doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game – we can both win.”Nampa-Reuters