Kenyans disillusioned – can Kibaki win again?

NAIROBI – On one side, a blood-soaked man is strapped to a chair marked “torture chambers”. On the other, a smiling woman raises a joyful face to the sky.

The ‘Before’ and ‘Now’ photos were juxtaposed in a recent advertising campaign to promote the idea that Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki’s government is sweeping away the evils of his predecessor Daniel arap Moi’s 24-year rule. “Today you can speak your mind, write your thoughts, express yourself freely.Anywhere.Anytime,” a caption boasted.”We should commend President Mwai Kibaki for providing us with democratic space.”Such a fine-sounding interpretation of national renaissance may have been held by many when Kibaki took power in 2002 – but these days it is looking increasingly hollow.Indeed, just days after the advertisements appeared, newspapers were full of images showing a rather different image of Kenya to the world: hooded police raiding a media house which had offended the government.High-level corruption and nepotism scandals have continued, the tribalism that has dogged Kenya’s post-independence history is rearing its head again, and the coalition that brought Kibaki to power has dissolved into factions.Western goodwill has also dissipated as hopes Kenya – the economic powerhouse of east Africa – would be an example of good governance to the continent have been dashed.”I didn’t believe in the ‘new dawn’ in the first place,” said UK-based analyst and former University of Nairobi teacher Muzong Kodi, noting how many Moi associates joined Kibaki at the last minute before his election win.”But even those who dreamt of a new start now realise it is all over.There was never any political will to fight against corruption.It was just a slogan to win votes.”Yet many think Kibaki, a veteran 74-year-old politician who has held high positions virtually since the British left in 1963, may be preparing to shrug off the tide of disenchantment and have a stab at re-election in 2007.”He’s shown he’s not going to step down, and we think it’s highly likely he will run again,” said a Western diplomat tracking Kenyan politics.”He might have a sting in his tail.”‘OLD PEOPLE, GO HOME!’ Kibaki’s best strategy, analysts say, would be to buy time during the current storm, then start reconstructing a new political alliance and praying for a divided opposition.In that latter wish, he is aided by the seemingly uncontrollable ambitions of opposition leaders like Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta and Kalonzo Musyoka.Those three are the leading lights of the so-called ‘Orange Democratic Movement’, formed after their defeat of Kibaki in a referendum on a new constitution at the end of 2005.But most expect them to split and run separately next year.As well as opposition disarray, Kibaki would have to regain a lot of lost goodwill among ordinary Kenyans.A string of promises that stirred euphoria back in 2002 – to root out graft, to rewrite Kenya’s out-of-date constitution in 100 days – have been unfulfilled.So it was perhaps no surprise that a recent poll showed just 22 per cent of Kenyans would vote for Kibaki were an election held now, compared to 35 per cent for Musyoka, a lawyer sacked from the cabinet at the end of last year.And in a nation where virility and strength is valued highly in leaders, many have begun grumbling about Kibaki’s age and lack of dynamism.His reputation for indecisiveness has bred the joke that Kibaki never saw a fence he did not want to sit on.”He can try his luck, but I think Kalanzo Musyoka is the man for the presidency,” newspaper seller Samuel Nkeli said.”We want a younger generation …let the old people go home.”But Kibaki supporters and some analysts argue that recent steps against corruption are the toughest in Kenya to date.Three ministers linked to scams have resigned, the central bank governor has been told to step down, and a clutch of former top officials have been charged in court.The torrent of criticism of the government in the media also proves how far Kenya has come since Moi, some say.”Yes, Kenya has had some seriously dark moments recently.But that should not distract us from the slow but tangible progress,” local analyst Robert Shaw said.”Let’s not forget that corruption becomes less and less attractive as the spectre of retribution becomes greater and more ominous.Isn’t that happening?” – Nampa-Reuters (Additional reporting by Jack Kimball)”Today you can speak your mind, write your thoughts, express yourself freely.Anywhere.Anytime,” a caption boasted.”We should commend President Mwai Kibaki for providing us with democratic space.”Such a fine-sounding interpretation of national renaissance may have been held by many when Kibaki took power in 2002 – but these days it is looking increasingly hollow.Indeed, just days after the advertisements appeared, newspapers were full of images showing a rather different image of Kenya to the world: hooded police raiding a media house which had offended the government.High-level corruption and nepotism scandals have continued, the tribalism that has dogged Kenya’s post-independence history is rearing its head again, and the coalition that brought Kibaki to power has dissolved into factions.Western goodwill has also dissipated as hopes Kenya – the economic powerhouse of east Africa – would be an example of good governance to the continent have been dashed.”I didn’t believe in the ‘new dawn’ in the first place,” said UK-based analyst and former University of Nairobi teacher Muzong Kodi, noting how many Moi associates joined Kibaki at the last minute before his election win.”But even those who dreamt of a new start now realise it is all over.There was never any political will to fight against corruption.It was just a slogan to win votes.”Yet many think Kibaki, a veteran 74-year-old politician who has held high positions virtually since the British left in 1963, may be preparing to shrug off the tide of disenchantment and have a stab at re-election in 2007.”He’s shown he’s not going to step down, and we think it’s highly likely he will run again,” said a Western diplomat tracking Kenyan politics.”He might have a sting in his tail.”‘OLD PEOPLE, GO HOME!’ Kibaki’s best strategy, analysts say, would be to buy time during the current storm, then start reconstructing a new political alliance and praying for a divided opposition.In that latter wish, he is aided by the seemingly uncontrollable ambitions of opposition leaders like Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta and Kalonzo Musyoka.Those three are the leading lights of the so-called ‘Orange Democratic Movement’, formed after their defeat of Kibaki in a referendum on a new constitution at the end of 2005.But most expect them to split and run separately next year.As well as opposition disarray, Kibaki would have to regain a lot of lost goodwill among ordinary Kenyans.A string of promises that stirred euphoria back in 2002 – to root out graft, to rewrite Kenya’s out-of-date constitution in 100 days – have been unfulfilled.So it was perhaps no surprise that a recent poll showed just 22 per cent of Kenyans would vote for Kibaki were an election held now, compared to 35 per cent for Musyoka, a lawyer sacked from the cabinet at the end of last year.And in a nation where virility and strength is valued highly in leaders, many have begun grumbling about Kibaki’s age and lack of dynamism.His reputation for indecisiveness has bred the joke that Kibaki never saw a fence he did not want to sit on.”He can try his luck, but I think Kalanzo Musyoka is the man for the presidency,” newspaper seller Samuel Nkeli said.”We want a younger generation …let the old people go home.”But Kibaki supporters and some analysts argue that recent steps against corruption are the toughest in Kenya to date.Three ministers linked to scams have resigned, the central bank governor has been told to step down, and a clutch of former top officials have been charged in court.The torrent of criticism of the government in the media also proves how far Kenya has come since Moi, some say.”Yes, Kenya has had some seriously dark moments recently.But that should not distract us from the slow but tangible progress,” local analyst Robert Shaw said.”Let’s not forget that corruption becomes less and less attractive as the spectre of retribution becomes greater and more ominous.Isn’t that happening?” – Nampa-Reuters (Additional reporting by Jack Kimball)