Kenya poll to hinge on tribal power-play

NAIROBI – There are only six months to go before Kenya’s presidential election, but it’s anyone’s guess who will run, on what platform, and even on what day.

Consensus says incumbent President Mwai Kibaki, lauded for the healthy growth of east Africa’s largest economy – if not for its entrenched corruption – will seek re-election despite advancing years and whispered ill health. Polls show him the most popular candidate at the moment.But Kibaki (75) has not formally declared himself in the race or joined the NARC-Kenya party set up by supporters as a vote-winning vehicle to replace his split ruling coalition.Nor has the government set a date, though some time in the week between Christmas and New Year looks a near certainty.FRONT-RUNNERS Current attention, however, is focused on the other side of the coin: who will challenge Kibaki among an opposition coalition with the votes to mount a strong challenge if it can control the egos of its eight would-be nominees.Front-runners for that ticket are firebrand former political prisoner and cabinet minister Raila Odinga and suave lawyer Kalonzo Musyoka.In a yet to be decided but sure to be fractious internal party process, one will likely emerge in the next month or so as candidate for the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).The decision of the other will then shape the poll.”The opposition knows that if they can remain united they have a chance of seeing victory,” Nairobi University politics lecturer Chweya Ludeki said.”If they split, it’s so much easier for Kibaki.So right now, it’s all to play for in Kenya.”Both Odinga and Musyoka have publicly vowed to back the other, but analysts believe Musyoka may well defect to Kibaki or form a third movement if he loses the nomination.Coming from the small Kamba tribe, however, Musyoka does not command the massive block vote Odinga has among his Luo people.So with Odinga gaining ground in the last few months with high-profile campaigning – centred around an imported Hummer H2 truck that delights crowds across the country – and some bridge-building with other tribes, he may be able to mount a stout challenge to Kibaki even without Musyoka, analysts say.VIOLENCE LURKS The potential for one of the closest fights in a major African election of recent years is exciting many observers and whipping up local political and media circles.But among many of Kenya’s 35 million people, and all of its major Western donors and partners, there is deep disappointment that yet again an election is shaping into a tribal contest with little more than lip-service to policy or ideology.”It will be one of the liveliest elections we have had in a long time.It could be very, very close,” said respected local newspaper columnist Macharia Gaitho.”But let’s not kid ourselves about the nature of the contest.Even if there is reference to policies, it will be very much on the surface.The main driver is, as usual, regional and ethnic politics.That is very sad.”Sadder than the lack of ideas, however, would be a resurgence of the violence that has plagued past Kenyan elections, most notably in the 1990s with the emergence of multiparty politics under past President Daniel arap Moi.So far, the signs are ominous.Land clashes in the lush Mount Elgon highlands, which some have linked to local politicians jockeying for favour before the election, have killed around 140 people this year.A string of beheadings by the Mungiki criminal gang – which some local analysts say feel betrayed by the Kibaki government whose tribal homeland, central Kenya, it also occupies – has terrified the country and brought a bloody backlash from police.A mysterious explosion went off in a Nairobi street earlier this month.And police said this week they had uncovered a camp along the Indian Ocean Coast being used by a new gang – the Mombasa Republican Council – to plan attacks before the poll.”Kenya has avoided the wars that have so devastated many of its neighbours in the region,” a Nairobi-based diplomat said.”But it does have this unfortunate history of violence in election years, and we are not optimistic this time round.”Expatriates are already booking flights out for election season, and locals are bracing themselves in case of trouble.Fresh in Kenyans’ minds is a 2005 referendum punctured by bust-ups at rallies and shootouts that killed eight.”I’m very interested in politics, but I’m not going anywhere near a rally again, not with all those thugs,” said Daniel Otieno, who took his children to a 2005 referendum rally near the western town of Kisumu where four people were shot dead.Nampa-ReutersPolls show him the most popular candidate at the moment.But Kibaki (75) has not formally declared himself in the race or joined the NARC-Kenya party set up by supporters as a vote-winning vehicle to replace his split ruling coalition.Nor has the government set a date, though some time in the week between Christmas and New Year looks a near certainty.FRONT-RUNNERS Current attention, however, is focused on the other side of the coin: who will challenge Kibaki among an opposition coalition with the votes to mount a strong challenge if it can control the egos of its eight would-be nominees.Front-runners for that ticket are firebrand former political prisoner and cabinet minister Raila Odinga and suave lawyer Kalonzo Musyoka.In a yet to be decided but sure to be fractious internal party process, one will likely emerge in the next month or so as candidate for the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).The decision of the other will then shape the poll.”The opposition knows that if they can remain united they have a chance of seeing victory,” Nairobi University politics lecturer Chweya Ludeki said.”If they split, it’s so much easier for Kibaki.So right now, it’s all to play for in Kenya.”Both Odinga and Musyoka have publicly vowed to back the other, but analysts believe Musyoka may well defect to Kibaki or form a third movement if he loses the nomination.Coming from the small Kamba tribe, however, Musyoka does not command the massive block vote Odinga has among his Luo people.So with Odinga gaining ground in the last few months with high-profile campaigning – centred around an imported Hummer H2 truck that delights crowds across the country – and some bridge-building with other tribes, he may be able to mount a stout challenge to Kibaki even without Musyoka, analysts say.VIOLENCE LURKS The potential for one of the closest fights in a major African election of recent years is exciting many observers and whipping up local political and media circles.But among many of Kenya’s 35 million people, and all of its major Western donors and partners, there is deep disappointment that yet again an election is shaping into a tribal contest with little more than lip-service to policy or ideology.”It will be one of the liveliest elections we have had in a long time.It could be very, very close,” said respected local newspaper columnist Macharia Gaitho.”But let’s not kid ourselves about the nature of the contest.Even if there is reference to policies, it will be very much on the surface.The main driver is, as usual, regional and ethnic politics.That is very sad.”Sadder than the lack of ideas, however, would be a resurgence of the violence that has plagued past Kenyan elections, most notably in the 1990s with the emergence of multiparty politics under past President Daniel arap Moi.So far, the signs are ominous.Land clashes in the lush Mount Elgon highlands, which some have linked to local politicians jockeying for favour before the election, have killed around 140 people this year.A string of beheadings by the Mungiki criminal gang – which some local analysts say feel betrayed by the Kibaki government whose tribal homeland, central Kenya, it also occupies – has terrified the country and brought a bloody backlash from police.A mysterious explosion went off in a Nairobi street earlier this month.And police said this week they had uncovered a camp along the Indian Ocean Coast being used by a new gang – the Mombasa Republican Council – to plan attacks before the poll.”Kenya has avoided the wars that have so devastated many of its neighbours in the region,” a Nairobi-based diplomat said.”But it does have this unfortunate history of violence in election years, and we are not optimistic this time round.”Expatriates are already booking flights out for election season, and locals are bracing themselves in case of trouble.Fresh in Kenyans’ minds is a 2005 referendum punctured by bust-ups at rallies and shootouts that killed eight.”I’m very interested in politics, but I’m not going anywhere near a rally again, not with all those thugs,” said Daniel Otieno, who took his children to a 2005 referendum rally near the western town of Kisumu where four people were shot dead.Nampa-Reuters