Kadima seen winning Israel vote despite slip

JERUSALEM – Israel’s centrist Kadima party, which advocates withdrawing from parts of the occupied West Bank, appeared on course to win elections today, according to the last opinion polls published before voting.

But with its lead slipping, Kadima may struggle to form a stable coalition to carry out its vision of setting Israel’s permanent borders by dismantling isolated Jewish settlements and bolstering larger ones on land Palestinians want for a state. Opinion polls published in the mass-circulation Yedioth Ahronoth and Maariv newspapers on Monday both gave Kadima 34 seats in the 120-seat chamber, a steep drop from 44 seats predicted earlier in the campaign.The results fell short of the 40-plus seats that interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had set his sights on, saying it was essential for a stable government that would serve its four-year term and implement his ambitious policies.The centre-left Labour Party and the right-wing Likud party were lagging well behind Kadima with between 17 to 21 seats for Labour and 13 to 14 seats for Likud, the surveys said.Kadima has slid in the polls since Olmert took over from Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who has been in a coma since January after suffering a crippling stroke.Olmert has called the election a national referendum on his “consolidation” plan, a proposal to evacuate dozens of smaller settlements in the occupied West Bank while strengthening larger enclaves if peace efforts go nowhere.The blueprint, he said, would help “preserve Israel as a Jewish state with a stable Jewish majority while separating from the Palestinians”.Palestinians have said such steps would deny them the viable state they seek in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and effectively annex territory.A lower than expected result may mean that Kadima would need to align itself with at least three other parties to form a hodgepodge coalition that might follow the fate of the previous four governments and collapse before serving its term.”For the government to work properly, you need to have Kadima plus its desired partner, which today looks to be Labour, to be close enough for a majority,” said political analyst Rueven Hazan.”But if Kadima and Labour are 10 seats short of a majority, then it will have to form a government with other coalition partners and that’s when there will be problems three months down the road,” he added.Today’s ballot will be Israel’s fifth in a decade.Pollsters were struggling to predict the number of undecided votes and voter turnout amid predictions that voter apathy could hurt Kadima on election day.Both factors, they said, were crucial in determining the election results, but were unlikely to rob Kadima of a victory.According to the Ha’aretz newspaper, as many as 28 seats would be determined by undecided voters.Many of them were believed to be torn between Kadima and Labour, analysts said.- Nampa-ReutersOpinion polls published in the mass-circulation Yedioth Ahronoth and Maariv newspapers on Monday both gave Kadima 34 seats in the 120-seat chamber, a steep drop from 44 seats predicted earlier in the campaign.The results fell short of the 40-plus seats that interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had set his sights on, saying it was essential for a stable government that would serve its four-year term and implement his ambitious policies.The centre-left Labour Party and the right-wing Likud party were lagging well behind Kadima with between 17 to 21 seats for Labour and 13 to 14 seats for Likud, the surveys said.Kadima has slid in the polls since Olmert took over from Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who has been in a coma since January after suffering a crippling stroke.Olmert has called the election a national referendum on his “consolidation” plan, a proposal to evacuate dozens of smaller settlements in the occupied West Bank while strengthening larger enclaves if peace efforts go nowhere.The blueprint, he said, would help “preserve Israel as a Jewish state with a stable Jewish majority while separating from the Palestinians”.Palestinians have said such steps would deny them the viable state they seek in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and effectively annex territory.A lower than expected result may mean that Kadima would need to align itself with at least three other parties to form a hodgepodge coalition that might follow the fate of the previous four governments and collapse before serving its term.”For the government to work properly, you need to have Kadima plus its desired partner, which today looks to be Labour, to be close enough for a majority,” said political analyst Rueven Hazan.”But if Kadima and Labour are 10 seats short of a majority, then it will have to form a government with other coalition partners and that’s when there will be problems three months down the road,” he added.Today’s ballot will be Israel’s fifth in a decade.Pollsters were struggling to predict the number of undecided votes and voter turnout amid predictions that voter apathy could hurt Kadima on election day.Both factors, they said, were crucial in determining the election results, but were unlikely to rob Kadima of a victory.According to the Ha’aretz newspaper, as many as 28 seats would be determined by undecided voters.Many of them were believed to be torn between Kadima and Labour, analysts said.- Nampa-Reuters