Iran the lurking issue as fighting in region surges

CAIRO – The sudden, shocking flare-up of Mideast violence may really be – underneath – all about Iran.

And it’s not just Israel, but also the United States and even some Arab countries, who hope the Islamic regime and friends like Syria suffer a big blow. So far, the battleground has been limited to Lebanon and Israel.But the underlying struggle is between Israel and others who view Iran as a dangerous threat, and Iran and its allies determined to show they can cause serious trouble if pressured too hard.All that means the fighting could last a long time.It’s been brewing for years as the Palestinian-Israeli crisis has festered and the Mideast has suffered through other destabilising crises like the Iraq war.Yet the reason it erupted now remains unclear.In part, Hezbollah’s leader may have decided, facing domestic political pressure, that he needed to show he was still a leader of the anti-Israeli cause.For its part, Israel chose to fight back hard when Hezbollah seized two soldiers, perhaps thinking any sign of weakness could make it more vulnerable.Or perhaps, as some Israeli generals have suggested, it saw a chance to eviscerate Hezbollah once and for all, once the group stuck its head up.Iran and Syria, meanwhile, clearly had their own reasons for being pleased, whether they ordered Hezbollah’s actions or merely supported them.”Provoking Israel creates a natural division between the US, as Israel’s ally, and Europe,” notes Anthony Cordesman, one of the top Mideast experts in the United States.”It distracts from Syria’s crimes in Lebanon and Iran’s nuclear programmes.”And of course, as the US has learned so painfully, “every Israeli action against Arabs feeds Arab anger against the US”, Cordesman says.In that sense, Iran and Syria gain big advantages with few risks from the fighting.As just one example of how the crisis has distracted from other efforts, the G-8 summit of nations had hoped to focus on a joint policy on Iran’s nuclear program.Instead, the leaders spent their meeting struggling to reach a semblance of consensus on how to stop the new violence.That consensus is far away.France, for example, has pushed for a ceasefire, making the point along with other European nations that Israel’s attacks on Lebanon rile up anti-Western and anti-Israeli sentiment.President Bush, however, has not called for a ceasefire.He urged Israel to be careful and lamented the suffering of civilians.But he also said the violence had created a “moment of clarification” that showed the world how Hezbollah disrupts peace efforts.What’s more surprising is that Arab countries allied with the US have lashed out at Hezbollah too.Hezbollah’s attacks were “unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible,” Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said.Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain all agreed.All are governments dominated by Sunni Muslims, most of them worried about the growing influence – and confrontational stance – of the heavily Shiite Muslim Iranian regime.They also worry about the prospect of an Iraq dominated by Shi’ite parties beholden to Iran.And unlike Iran, Syria, Hezbollah or Hamas, most of those Arab countries also have shown willingness to accept some type of deal on the Israel-Palestinian crisis even if they’re lukewarm about it.In some ways, it should make the United States happy that Arab countries like Saudi Arabia criticise Hezbollah.But as Mideast lines sharpen and hostilities grow, it paradoxically becomes more difficult for such US allies to have any real influence over groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, or countries like Syria.That means the US ability to influence the region falls.Stability also becomes an issue.Countries like Egypt worry that their people will support Hezbollah, even if they don’t, leading to protests and dissent.Hezbollah and Iran play off that for all it’s worth.Hezbollah’s leader has cast himself as a protector of the Islamic world, writ large, as has Iran’s hardline president.Both are sophisticated in using the region’s satellite television stations to spread their message that confrontation alone can give Muslims dignity.The question, of course, is how far all this will go.So far, the battleground has remained Lebanon and Israel but it could easily spread.Iran has warned that Israel will suffer if it broadens its attacks to include Syria, but what Iran might do in such a situation remains unclear.Both sides clearly view their very existence at risk and thus will be loathe to back down, said Iranian exile Amir Taheri, writing in Sunday’s pan-Arab Asharq al Awsat newspaper.And that could make the fight both long and damaging.”The stakes have been raised beyond anyone’s expectation,” Taheri said.- Nampa-AP * Sally Buzbee is the AP’s Chief of Middle East News based in Cairo.So far, the battleground has been limited to Lebanon and Israel.But the underlying struggle is between Israel and others who view Iran as a dangerous threat, and Iran and its allies determined to show they can cause serious trouble if pressured too hard.All that means the fighting could last a long time.It’s been brewing for years as the Palestinian-Israeli crisis has festered and the Mideast has suffered through other destabilising crises like the Iraq war.Yet the reason it erupted now remains unclear.In part, Hezbollah’s leader may have decided, facing domestic political pressure, that he needed to show he was still a leader of the anti-Israeli cause.For its part, Israel chose to fight back hard when Hezbollah seized two soldiers, perhaps thinking any sign of weakness could make it more vulnerable.Or perhaps, as some Israeli generals have suggested, it saw a chance to eviscerate Hezbollah once and for all, once the group stuck its head up.Iran and Syria, meanwhile, clearly had their own reasons for being pleased, whether they ordered Hezbollah’s actions or merely supported them.”Provoking Israel creates a natural division between the US, as Israel’s ally, and Europe,” notes Anthony Cordesman, one of the top Mideast experts in the United States.”It distracts from Syria’s crimes in Lebanon and Iran’s nuclear programmes.”And of course, as the US has learned so painfully, “every Israeli action against Arabs feeds Arab anger against the US”, Cordesman says.In that sense, Iran and Syria gain big advantages with few risks from the fighting.As just one example of how the crisis has distracted from other efforts, the G-8 summit of nations had hoped to focus on a joint policy on Iran’s nuclear program.Instead, the leaders spent their meeting struggling to reach a semblance of consensus on how to stop the new violence.That consensus is far away.France, for example, has pushed for a ceasefire, making the point along with other European nations that Israel’s attacks on Lebanon rile up anti-Western and anti-Israeli sentiment.President Bush, however, has not called for a ceasefire.He urged Israel to be careful and lamented the suffering of civilians.But he also said the violence had created a “moment of clarification” that showed the world how Hezbollah disrupts peace efforts.What’s more surprising is that Arab countries allied with the US have lashed out at Hezbollah too.Hezbollah’s attacks were “unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible,” Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said.Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain all agreed.All are governments dominated by Sunni Muslims, most of them worried about the growing influence – and confrontational stance – of the heavily Shiite Muslim Iranian regime.They also worry about the prospect of an Iraq dominated by Shi’ite parties beholden to Iran.And unlike Iran, Syria, Hezbollah or Hamas, most of those Arab countries also have shown willingness to accept some type of deal on the Israel-Palestinian crisis even if they’re lukewarm about it.In some ways, it should make the United States happy that Arab countries like Saudi Arabia criticise Hezbollah.But as Mideast lines sharpen and hostilities grow, it paradoxically becomes more difficult for such US allies to have any real influence over groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, or countries like Syria.That means the US ability to influence the region falls.Stability also becomes an issue.Countries like Egypt worry that their people will support Hezbollah, even if they don’t, leading to protests and dissent.Hezbollah and Iran play off that for all it’s worth.Hezbollah’s leader has cast himself as a protector of the Islamic world, writ large, as has Iran’s hardline president.Both are sophisticated in using the region’s satellite television stations to spread their message that confrontation alone can give Muslims dignity.The question, of course, is how far all this will go.So far, the battleground has remained Lebanon and Israel but it could easily spread.Iran has warned that Israel will suffer if it broadens its attacks to include Syria, but what Iran might do in such a situation remains unclear.Both sides clearly view their very existence at risk and thus will be loathe to back down, said Iranian exile Amir Taheri, writing in Sunday’s pan-Arab Asharq al Awsat newspaper.And that could make the fight both long and damaging.”The stakes have been raised beyond anyone’s expectation,” Taheri said.- Nampa-AP * Sally Buzbee is the AP’s Chief of Middle East News based in Cairo.

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