Iran mixes threats with diplomacy to avoid UN Security Council referral

TEHRAN – By blending cunning diplomacy with threats of retaliation, Iran is hoping it can kill off Western efforts to send its disputed nuclear programme to the UN Security Council this week.

The Islamic republic, diplomats and analysts say, is piling on the pressure on all fronts – playing on fears of yet more turmoil in the Middle East and soaring oil prices, and shifting its diplomatic focus towards Russia and China. “It’s hard to think of another government which is harder to negotiate with,” British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw commented on Saturday, acknowledging the hardline clerical regime was proving a gritty foe.Along with France and Germany, Britain had hoped Iran would jump at an offer of trade and other incentives and voluntarily limit nuclear fuel work that could be diverted to making weapons.Iran’s regime, which last year made a shift to the right with the election of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has rejected such a deal and steadily been pulling out of an accord with the EU-3 under which it froze nuclear fuel cycle activities.On Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) 35-nation board of governors will consider arguments from the European powers and the United States that New York now needs to be called in.Iran argues that it only wants to generate electricity and has a right to possess nuclear technology.It also badly wants to avoid a Security Council referral, as sought by arch-enemy the United States.Ahmadinejad has vowed to retaliate by ignoring the Security Council, resume industrial-scale enrichment and reduce IAEA inspection powers.A now three-year-old IAEA probe has failed to confirm the true nature of Iran’s nuclear programme, and any limitation on inspections would worsen tensions.The president has also played up Iranian clout in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories in what Western diplomats have dubbed a display of the Islamic republic’s “capacity for nuisance”.Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has been in Tehran to declare a “united front” against Israel, while the firebrand Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr – who has led two rebellions against US troops across the border – has also backed his fellow Shi’ites in Iran.And last week Ahmadinejad met with Palestinian militants and Hezbollah leaders in Syria.”Iran wants everyone to know that if anyone wants to pick a fight, it has the capacity to respond across the region,” a senior Tehran-based Western diplomat told AFP.”Iran is saying it can cause big trouble for Israel, damage Western interests in Lebanon and worsen conditions for American and British troops in Iraq.”Economy Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari has also warned that sanctions would spark “the unleashing of a crisis in the oil sector and particularly a price hike” – words that have increased market jitters.In order to refer Iran to the Security Council, Europe and the United States need support from Russia and China – and to a lesser extent non-aligned countries such as South Africa, India and Malaysia.They are also the subject of fierce Iranian lobbying.Russia is eyeing up huge business opportunities in Iran’s atomic energy plans, and oil-thirsty China is also reluctant to see the crisis escalate.”By bringing in China, Iran is hoping to reinforce its position in the crisis.It also doesn’t want a showdown with Russia,” said Saeed Leylaz, an Iranian political analyst.”Iran needs to buy time,” he said.Hence Iran is now embracing an idea from Moscow for its uranium to be enriched on Russian soil – seen as a way of preventing the Islamic republic from acquiring bomb-making technology but also guaranteeing its access to nuclear energy.Iran said on Saturday it needed “more time” for talks with Russia, saying the West should wait until at least the next IAEA meeting in March before making any move towards a Security Council referral.- Nampa-AFP”It’s hard to think of another government which is harder to negotiate with,” British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw commented on Saturday, acknowledging the hardline clerical regime was proving a gritty foe.Along with France and Germany, Britain had hoped Iran would jump at an offer of trade and other incentives and voluntarily limit nuclear fuel work that could be diverted to making weapons.Iran’s regime, which last year made a shift to the right with the election of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has rejected such a deal and steadily been pulling out of an accord with the EU-3 under which it froze nuclear fuel cycle activities.On Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) 35-nation board of governors will consider arguments from the European powers and the United States that New York now needs to be called in.Iran argues that it only wants to generate electricity and has a right to possess nuclear technology.It also badly wants to avoid a Security Council referral, as sought by arch-enemy the United States.Ahmadinejad has vowed to retaliate by ignoring the Security Council, resume industrial-scale enrichment and reduce IAEA inspection powers.A now three-year-old IAEA probe has failed to confirm the true nature of Iran’s nuclear programme, and any limitation on inspections would worsen tensions.The president has also played up Iranian clout in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories in what Western diplomats have dubbed a display of the Islamic republic’s “capacity for nuisance”.Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has been in Tehran to declare a “united front” against Israel, while the firebrand Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr – who has led two rebellions against US troops across the border – has also backed his fellow Shi’ites in Iran.And last week Ahmadinejad met with Palestinian militants and Hezbollah leaders in Syria.”Iran wants everyone to know that if anyone wants to pick a fight, it has the capacity to respond across the region,” a senior Tehran-based Western diplomat told AFP.”Iran is saying it can cause big trouble for Israel, damage Western interests in Lebanon and worsen conditions for American and British troops in Iraq.”Economy Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari has also warned that sanctions would spark “the unleashing of a crisis in the oil sector and particularly a price hike” – words that have increased market jitters.In order to refer Iran to the Security Council, Europe and the United States need support from Russia and China – and to a lesser extent non-aligned countries such as South Africa, India and Malaysia.They are also the subject of fierce Iranian lobbying.Russia is eyeing up huge business opportunities in Iran’s atomic energy plans, and oil-thirsty China is also reluctant to see the crisis escalate.”By bringing in China, Iran is hoping to reinforce its position in the crisis.It also doesn’t want a showdown with Russia,” said Saeed Leylaz, an Iranian political analyst.”Iran needs to buy time,” he said.Hence Iran is now embracing an idea from Moscow for its uranium to be enriched on Russian soil – seen as a way of preventing the Islamic republic from acquiring bomb-making technology but also guaranteeing its access to nuclear energy.Iran said on Saturday it needed “more time” for talks with Russia, saying the West should wait until at least the next IAEA meeting in March before making any move towards a Security Council referral.- Nampa-AFP