Job Shipululo AmupandaNAMIBIA’S body politic has changed. The hegemonic centre, controlled by the ruling party, Swapo, for close to 30 years, is visibly shaken. It is not holding and there are real prospects of things falling apart. Although signs were there, the 2019 November elections brought this realisation closer to ordinary citizens.
Taxi drivers in Windhoek are heard telling passengers how Swapo votes dropped from 80% (2014) to 66% (2019). As they exchange a glass of tombo, villagers at Otanana discuss how president Geingob’s support dwindled from 87% (2014) to 56% (2019) – ahead by a mere 6% in an election saved by the Supreme Court. Geingob is aware that the worst is yet to come for Swapo.
He prays that it happens after he is gone. These realities must have reverberated, like a noise-making ear loving fly, while he was forming his Cabinet.The 2022 Swapo elective congress is a factor. Changes to the top leadership – from vice president to deputy prime minister – whether by omission or commission, would have given Geingob’s 2022 succession direction. A new faction of an excluded presidential contender would have consolidated as fast as 23 March 2020.
With the ruling party in turmoil, another faction would’ve been catastrophic for Geingob. The only refuge is in maintaining the status quo. Nangolo Mbumba (vice president), Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila (prime minister) and Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (deputy prime minister) thus kept their positions.
This buys him time in 2020 and 2021. He may revisit his Cabinet with a reshuffle in early 2022 to shape the Swapo succession matrix. Geingob himself asked journalists to closely watch the 2022 congress.
Geingob composed his 2020 Cabinet in a different environment compared to 2015. In 2015, Armas Amukwiyu, then Geingob’s right-hand man – with affiliated hands and eyes of Desmond Amunyela and others – assisted him. Resultantly, political lightweights such as Penda yaNdakolo Aino Kapewangolo, Angel Nawatiseb and James Sankwasa entered Cabinet.
In 2020, Amukwiyu is not part of Geingob’s inner circle. Ministers such as yaNdakolo, Kapewangolo and others no longer have patrons to smuggle them into Cabinet.
They left Cabinet the same way they came – with ease. Amukwiyu was replaced, in his proximity to Geingob, by an ambitious and self-righteous cabal consisting of Sacky Shanghala, Mandela Kapere, Katrina Hanse Himarwa, Margaret Mensah, Tobie Aupindi and others who projected themselves as carrying Geingob’s anointment water.
From their cabal, Geingob’s future executive will emerge, they concluded. Plans were advanced for Bernard Esau to emerge as Geingob’s successor.
As soon as it became clear that corruption will have Shanghala and Esau seated in jail for a while, it became clear to Geingob that political distancing is necessary. The cabal could thus not influence Geingob’s Cabinet.
Scandalously, Geingob did not profit the Swapo youth league in answering calls and responding to the pressure for youth inclusion into parliament and the executive. Instead, he appointed young Emma Theofelus into parliament and Cabinet as deputy information minister.
It is evident that Geingob finally saw the hollowness that characterises the youth league leadership. When he complained about low education of Swapo parliamentarians, Geingob was aware that both youth league leader Ephraim Nekongo and Youth Council chairperson Mandela Kapere have not experienced a graduation stage apart from Grade 12.
Geingob followed the youth inclusion criticism and knew that should he respond it will have a significant impact. He will now be credited for appointing a 23-year-old youth into Cabinet. This is, indeed, good for Namibia and for the youth of the country.
Theofelus’ achievement is indeed the youth achievement. Beyond jubilation and celebration, Theofelus’ proximity to first lady Monica Geingos is known – only quacks would undermine Geingos’ role.
The appointment of defence executive director Peter Vilho as defence minister is unsurprising. His role in the deployment of the NDF into the streets had rewards. His contemporary Martin Pineas is due for Chief of Defence Force. Vilho also made several statements against perceived Geingob critics. During Geingob’s February visit to the Ondonga king, political tactician and senior headman Nangombe John Walenga, who was directing the official programme, asked Vilho to stand before the public and publicly told the president that he is in attendance.
Vilho’s appointment is, however, good for the morale of soldiers who were accustomed to civilian leadership. A professional soldier, with military credentials in post-independence Namibia, is now in charge of defence. It is refreshing.
Iipumbu Shiimi, Bank of Namibia governor’s, appointment as finance minister is unsurprising.
He served in the Swapo think tank and ran the bank in accordance with the dictates of Swapo. It was in this newspaper, on 19 November 2019, that I argued the case that Bank of Namibia was an elite instrument. Observe closely Shiimi’s successor.
The appointment of Esther Utjiua Muinjangue as deputy health minister plays itself interestingly.
Her election as Nudo president attracted celebration from the first lady. Signs of her warming up to Geingob were there. She was the only opposition leader that attended the announcement of the 2019 election results at the ECN with Geingob. During the recent election of National Assembly speaker, Swapo got one undisclosed opposition vote. The mystery has been unearthed.
With Nudo in a subtle coalition with Swapo, Swapo now has regained its lost two-thirds majority in the National Assembly. The future of Nudo, given these political structural adjustments, is in the realm of speculation.
It was saddening not to differentiate between Yvonne Dausab (an otherwise upright thinker) and Paula Kooper in viva viva crowds. As justice minister, she gets an opportunity to distinguish herself from the kraal – and she can do it. Appointments of Festus Mbandeka (attorney general) and Ben Likando (Intelligence DG) will be analysed in the fullness of time.
In summary, Geingob’s Cabinet is a response of a degenerating hegemonic centre, ducking the succession question, bringing successful and delivering cheerleaders into the inner circle and responding to various constituencies. These are not appointments of management by objectives but survivalist appointments in an unfamiliar environment. Indeed, he does not make these appointments in comfort.
What it means for Namibia is partly what Sociologist Robert Merton wrote in his 1936 text ‘The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Action’. He categorised these into three; (a) the Unexpected benefit, (b) Unexpected drawback and (c) Perverse result.
In 2015, Geingob asked for CVs from Swapo MPs to compose his Cabinet. Natangwe Ithete’s CV had Agribank as work experience. Geingob didn’t realise that Agribank had employees who are not necessarily part of the banks core business.
The unexpected drawback was that Ithete ended up as Namibia’s deputy finance minister. The perverse result is known by both Geingob and the finance ministry.
It is interesting that Geingob chose not to reward pedestrian hand-clappers as before. Let there be deeper analyses of decisions taken by a principal political actor beyond jubilations and despondency.
* Job Shipululo Amupanda is a decolonial scholar and activist from Omaalala village in northern Namibia. He recently passed his PhD in Political Studies at the University of Namibia.
