If the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and members of Iran’s top military brass is anything to go by, it is clear that the United States (US) and Israel’s military strategy is informed by a decapitation model.
In military science, the term decapitation refers to a strategic attack aimed at the leadership, command and control centres so as to render the remaining ‘body’ ineffective.
So far, that strategy seems to have backfired for two main reasons.
Judging by the way the Iranians have responded, it is clear that their command structures are highly decentralised.
Secondly, in terms of the Shia Islamic religion, their slain religious leader, Khamenei, died in a jihad (holy war), and as such he is regarded as a martyr.
This will inspire them to fight on to avenge his death.
Iran is waging a war against the ‘global economy’. Its military response has been wide-ranging, targeting US and Israeli military bases as well as energy installations and “soft targets” in the Gulf Coastal Countries (GCC).
‘GEOPOLITICAL RISK’
Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of global fuel passes and through which about 70% of food imports are channelled to the Gulf states).
Most of the Gulf states’ water supply (roughly 60%) is based on desalination of sea water.
If Iran destroys these desalination plants, countries like Saudi Arabia could run out of water within two weeks. This vulnerability also applies to Iran.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait have scaled down oil production.
As a result of this “geopolitical risk premium”, there has been a significant spike in global oil prices.
As of early March 2026, the increase is estimated at approximately 12% to 25%. If this trend continues, it will have a long-term negative ripple effect on the global economy and the weakening of the US dollar (oil products are paid in US dollars).
Airstrikes and missile attacks will not be able to affect regime change in Iran, the US needs to put “boots on the ground” i.e. committing troops.
Iran’s military power is estimated at about 500 000 troops. To match that, the US needs to commit at least 1.5 million troops. That is a tall order.
The US cannot leave the job of “boots on the ground” to Kurdish rebels alone.
The Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan (CPFIK) – the only formidable military force – has an estimated 20 000 fighters, though the battle-ready component may be much smaller.
In the context of the ongoing 2026 Iran war, Kurdish rebels are viewed by the US and Israel as a “second front” to divert the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) away from major cities and strategic sites.
On their own, the Kurdish rebels are a sitting duck for the better-equipped Iranian army.
WAR OF ATTRITION
Iran is a vast mountainous country and the US may suffer a “bloody nose” if they put “boots on the ground” because, compared to their Iranian counterparts, their knowledge of the terrain is very limited.
There seems to be a massive asymmetry in the “economics of war”.
In this “theatre”, Iran is utilising low-cost, mass-produced technology to force its adversaries into an unsustainable “mathematical crisis” where the cost of defence, on the part of the US and its allies, dwarfs the cost of offence.
For every US$1 Iran spends on drones, their adversaries are spending US$20 to US$28 to shoot them down.
To all intents and purposes, it seems that the military strategy Iran is deploying is that of a war of attrition.
A war of attrition is a military strategy where one side tries to win not by a single decisive blow, but by gradually wearing down the enemy’s strength, resources, and will to fight over a long period.
For Iran, the survival of the regime would be regarded as a strategic victory, but for the US, it would be a strategic defeat.
- Gerson Tjihenuna is a commissioner of the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN). The views expressed here are his own and not those of the ECN; on X: @GTjihenuna
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