In a year marked by geopolitical flare-ups and shifting macroeconomic tides, commodities have emerged as a clear window into global uncertainty, says a Simonis Storm report.
The report shows that while equities dominate headlines, it is the performance of resources like oil, gold and copper that offers the most revealing insights into investor sentiment in 2025.
“Commodities have once again proven to be sensitive barometers of global sentiment. From energy markets rattled by regional conflicts to industrial metals responding to Chinese stimulus, the sector has been anything but quiet,” says economist Almandro Jansen.
Oil has seen a sharp retreat in 2025.
Brent crude, which started the year with bullish forecasts from the United States (US) Energy Information Administration (EIA) of US$74 (about N$1 316) per barrel, has since dropped to around US$66 (about N$1 177), down over 11% year-to-date.
Jansen says the downward revision reflects both renewed economic headwinds and evolving geopolitical developments.
He observes that the outlook is now even more bearish, with brent projected to average just US$55 (about N$980) per barrel over the next three months.
Gold has been one of the year’s standout performers, rallying to record highs above US$3 400 (about N$60 600) per ounce before stabilising around US$3 200 to US$3 300 (about N$57 000 to N$58 800).
The metal’s role as a safe-haven asset remains strong.
“Persistent geopolitical tensions have sustained investor demand for gold. Its non-yielding nature is proving attractive as a hedge in uncertain times,” says Jansen.
Silver’s performance has lagged behind gold, rising just under 12% this year to around US$33 (about N$588) per ounce.
With the gold-to-silver ratio exceeding 100:1, Jansen suggests this could signal a buying opportunity.
He says, “Silver’s industrial use and dual role as a monetary and industrial metal may support stronger performance ahead.”
Copper continues to benefit from the global push toward electrification and renewable energy.
Infrastructure drives in the US, the European Union and China remain key, but a lesser-known driver is rising global military expenditure.
“Modern warfare is increasingly copper-intensive,” says Jansen, estimating defence demand contributes up to 500 000 tonnes annually to global copper consumption.
In contrast, palladium is trading in a subdued range between US$800 and US$1 200 (about N$14 300 to N$21 400) due to weakening automotive demand and supply surpluses.
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