Charter vote tears at Kenyan stability

NAIROBI – Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki is about to gamble more than just his political survival when he stages a referendum next week seen as a dress rehearsal for elections in 2007.

Analysts say Monday’s constitutional poll amounts to a roll of the dice on the stability of his country, the West’s most important ally in a region fractured by war, poverty and hunger. It is unlikely anyone in Kibaki’s weak, fractious coalition government meant the stakes to be quite so high, because voters yearning to escape years of rising poverty would be horrified by a revival of the tribal clashes that scarred Kenya in the 1990s.But after a campaign marked by killings, riots and tribal hate speech, the vote on a proposed new constitution intended to strengthen democracy in the country of 32 million has become a bare-knuckled fight for political prestige ahead of 2007.At least nine people have been killed at rallies over the charter, as a venal political elite adept at manipulating rural populations opened the kind of tribal fissures that marked the unhappy era of Kibaki’s predecessor Daniel arap Moi.”The beast within us has been unleashed and returning it to its cage will take some time,” wrote Lucy Oriang’ of the Daily Nation.”Far from being simply an expression of who we are, tribes have been turned into a tool for manipulation.”The proposed new charter was meant to boost pluralism by shaving the big presidential powers enjoyed by Moi, a master of the divide-and- rule tactics that still underpin Kenyan politics.But in effect the vote has turned into a poll on whether Kibaki, 74, has kept his promise to end the graft and crime of the Moi era and restore the economic vibrancy of the 1970s when the coffee growing nation was seen as a rare African success.The contest has brought out the worst in Kenya’s politicians, many of them tribal barons who clawed their way to prominence under Moi and perfected his manipulative skills.”It’s been about ethnicity and political payback, not the constitution,” said Maina Kiai, a human rights lawyer.Kibaki is leading the “Yes” campaign.The main opposition and a party in the ruling coalition are championing a “No” vote.A recent poll gave the “No” camp a 10 percentage point lead.The main issue at stake is the power of the president, with critics saying the proposed new charter ignores the will of the majority of Kenyans to balance those powers with a strong prime minister’s post and other constitutional checks.But if Kenyans vote No, it will not be because of the complicated, long-term issues at stake in the constitution.It will be due to their verdict on Kibaki’s uneven record.Many are disappointed.A diffident man, Kibaki lacks the charisma of his main political foes and heads a government that diplomats say has outdone Moi in the looting of state funds.Others, especially among Kibaki’s Kikuyu tribe, are expected to reward him for helping provide them with better roads.And some Kikuyus will support him simply because the top “No” campaigner, Roads Minister Raila Odinga, is a Luo, reflecting the rift between the Kikuyu and Luo tribes that is an abiding feature of Kenyan politics.Whatever the result, rifts among Kenyans will have deepened.The losers may well cry foul, especially if the vote is close.- Nampa-ReutersIt is unlikely anyone in Kibaki’s weak, fractious coalition government meant the stakes to be quite so high, because voters yearning to escape years of rising poverty would be horrified by a revival of the tribal clashes that scarred Kenya in the 1990s.But after a campaign marked by killings, riots and tribal hate speech, the vote on a proposed new constitution intended to strengthen democracy in the country of 32 million has become a bare-knuckled fight for political prestige ahead of 2007.At least nine people have been killed at rallies over the charter, as a venal political elite adept at manipulating rural populations opened the kind of tribal fissures that marked the unhappy era of Kibaki’s predecessor Daniel arap Moi.”The beast within us has been unleashed and returning it to its cage will take some time,” wrote Lucy Oriang’ of the Daily Nation.”Far from being simply an expression of who we are, tribes have been turned into a tool for manipulation.”The proposed new charter was meant to boost pluralism by shaving the big presidential powers enjoyed by Moi, a master of the divide-and- rule tactics that still underpin Kenyan politics.But in effect the vote has turned into a poll on whether Kibaki, 74, has kept his promise to end the graft and crime of the Moi era and restore the economic vibrancy of the 1970s when the coffee growing nation was seen as a rare African success.The contest has brought out the worst in Kenya’s politicians, many of them tribal barons who clawed their way to prominence under Moi and perfected his manipulative skills.”It’s been about ethnicity and political payback, not the constitution,” said Maina Kiai, a human rights lawyer.Kibaki is leading the “Yes” campaign.The main opposition and a party in the ruling coalition are championing a “No” vote.A recent poll gave the “No” camp a 10 percentage point lead.The main issue at stake is the power of the president, with critics saying the proposed new charter ignores the will of the majority of Kenyans to balance those powers with a strong prime minister’s post and other constitutional checks.But if Kenyans vote No, it will not be because of the complicated, long-term issues at stake in the constitution.It will be due to their verdict on Kibaki’s uneven record.Many are disappointed.A diffident man, Kibaki lacks the charisma of his main political foes and heads a government that diplomats say has outdone Moi in the looting of state funds.Others, especially among Kibaki’s Kikuyu tribe, are expected to reward him for helping provide them with better roads.And some Kikuyus will support him simply because the top “No” campaigner, Roads Minister Raila Odinga, is a Luo, reflecting the rift between the Kikuyu and Luo tribes that is an abiding feature of Kenyan politics.Whatever the result, rifts among Kenyans will have deepened.The losers may well cry foul, especially if the vote is close.- Nampa-Reuters