Caprivi watches and waits as Zambezi rises and falls

THE flood situation in the Caprivi is likely to continue for at least another three weeks, with the possibility of it worsening in the eastern floodplains.

Deputy Director of Hydrology in the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development, Guido van Langenhove, told The Namibian yesterday that the floods were not likely to follow the same pattern as last year when the Zambezi River level dropped considerably shortly after reaching it’s peak on April 29. “It is not going to improve [soon], so people should evacuate.There is no point in staying there,” he said.”It’s not like last year when we could tell them [flood victims] it’s going to fall and their possessions would be safe.There is the chance it could still rise another half a metre in the floodplains.”The predictions are based on information obtained from Lukulu in Zambia, about 300 kilometres north of the border, which provides a rough guide to what the state of the river in the Caprivi will be about a fortnight later.According to information from the station, the Zambezi River levels there have remained fairly constant over the last three weeks and have only shown increases over the last five days.The river, as measured at Katima Mulilo, dropped slightly yesterday – to 6,90 metres from 6,96 m the previous day.However, Van Langenhove said minimal increases or decreases in the river level were not the main factor in predicting the future state of the river.”It doesn’t matter whether it rises or falls a few centimetres every day, it’s the general trend of the river we are looking at,” he said.The current situation does however put the river well on track to reach levels not attained since 1969 – when it surpassed the eight-metre mark by 17 centimetres.The river last hovered around seven metres during the late 1970s.With the water now having crossed the Bukalo channel, Lake Liambezi, which dried up in 1985, is poised to receive large amounts of water in the coming weeks.Van Langenhove said while this could have positive spin-offs in terms of fish for people in the area, it could destroy many agricultural projects.In addition, large pools of stagnant water could give rise to diseases.With the lake not having been full since 1982, people in the area have resorted to planting very close to the water basin.”It is not going to improve [soon], so people should evacuate.There is no point in staying there,” he said.”It’s not like last year when we could tell them [flood victims] it’s going to fall and their possessions would be safe.There is the chance it could still rise another half a metre in the floodplains.”The predictions are based on information obtained from Lukulu in Zambia, about 300 kilometres north of the border, which provides a rough guide to what the state of the river in the Caprivi will be about a fortnight later.According to information from the station, the Zambezi River levels there have remained fairly constant over the last three weeks and have only shown increases over the last five days.The river, as measured at Katima Mulilo, dropped slightly yesterday – to 6,90 metres from 6,96 m the previous day.However, Van Langenhove said minimal increases or decreases in the river level were not the main factor in predicting the future state of the river.”It doesn’t matter whether it rises or falls a few centimetres every day, it’s the general trend of the river we are looking at,” he said.The current situation does however put the river well on track to reach levels not attained since 1969 – when it surpassed the eight-metre mark by 17 centimetres.The river last hovered around seven metres during the late 1970s.With the water now having crossed the Bukalo channel, Lake Liambezi, which dried up in 1985, is poised to receive large amounts of water in the coming weeks.Van Langenhove said while this could have positive spin-offs in terms of fish for people in the area, it could destroy many agricultural projects.In addition, large pools of stagnant water could give rise to diseases.With the lake not having been full since 1982, people in the area have resorted to planting very close to the water basin.