Botswana successor seen as likely to maintain winning strategy

GABORONE – The man set to succeed Festus Mogae as president of diamond-rich Botswana is unlikely to change economic policy or political course in a country hailed as a rare African success story, analysts said.

Mogae told members of the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) on Saturday he would step down in nine months at the end of his second term in office, ending a decade in power that saw his nation chalk up impressive economic growth. He will hand over the presidency to his deputy, Ian Khama, as had been widely expected.A general election is expected in October 2009, a poll that Khama and the dominant BDP are virtually guaranteed to win.Analysts say the handover has been carefully orchestrated to cause as few ripples as possible, in contrast to the often disruptive and sometimes violent succession crises that have erupted in other parts of the continent.”Mogae and Khama have been running the country together for some time – there is no other country in Africa with such smooth succession planning,” said Siphamandla Zondi, political analyst at South Africa’s Institute for Global Dialogue.Botswana is best known for diamonds – it is the world’s biggest producer – and more recently Mma Ramotswe, the curvy heroine of Alexander McCall Smith’s fictional ‘Lady Detective’ series, set in the country’s sleepy capital of Gaborone.With growth rates averaging at least eight per cent over the last two decades, Botswana has been Africa’s best performing economy, and analysts expect that trend to continue even though Mogae, an Oxford-trained economist, will be replaced by a military man.”Although Mogae, as an economist, took a keen interest in longer term development issues and the need to accelerate diversification, the institutions are considered strong enough to ensure policy continuity,” said Razia Khan, Africa economist at Standard Chartered in London.DEMOCRACY UNDER THREAT? The challenge facing Khama is more a delicate balancing act than a high-wire act, considering the weakness of the main opposition Botswana National Front and general agreement on the need to keep the country strong economically and in good standing internationally, analysts said.Khama, the son of former President Seretse Khama, is expected to retain Finance Minister Baldezi Gaolathe, who has won praise for managing the economy.But the BDP, which has won every election since independence from Britain in 1966, has come under fire recently over its human rights record and commitment to democracy.Concerns about Khama are particularly acute given his history in the military.Botswana’s government found itself under sharp international scrutiny last year when the country’s highest court ruled it had illegally forced its San Bushmen off their ancestral lands and said they should be allowed to return home.The government has since placed conditions on the rights of the Bushmen to return to the Kalahari, angering rights groups.Opposition parties and civil society groups also claim that Mogae’s administration has failed to translate economic growth into a better life for many Botswanans who remain mired in poverty and devastated by high HIV-AIDS rates.Some observers expect Khama to redirect more of the country’s vast diamond revenues to the poor ahead of the election and alter the controversial treatment of the San, Africa’s last hunter-gatherers.”The (Bushmen) issue has been a thorn in Botswana’s side and he may need to rethink the policy on that,” Zondi said.”He may also try to offer new ways of dealing with the windfall from mining and to reach out to opponents who think he is bringing in the military by the back door.”Nampa-ReutersHe will hand over the presidency to his deputy, Ian Khama, as had been widely expected.A general election is expected in October 2009, a poll that Khama and the dominant BDP are virtually guaranteed to win.Analysts say the handover has been carefully orchestrated to cause as few ripples as possible, in contrast to the often disruptive and sometimes violent succession crises that have erupted in other parts of the continent.”Mogae and Khama have been running the country together for some time – there is no other country in Africa with such smooth succession planning,” said Siphamandla Zondi, political analyst at South Africa’s Institute for Global Dialogue.Botswana is best known for diamonds – it is the world’s biggest producer – and more recently Mma Ramotswe, the curvy heroine of Alexander McCall Smith’s fictional ‘Lady Detective’ series, set in the country’s sleepy capital of Gaborone.With growth rates averaging at least eight per cent over the last two decades, Botswana has been Africa’s best performing economy, and analysts expect that trend to continue even though Mogae, an Oxford-trained economist, will be replaced by a military man.”Although Mogae, as an economist, took a keen interest in longer term development issues and the need to accelerate diversification, the institutions are considered strong enough to ensure policy continuity,” said Razia Khan, Africa economist at Standard Chartered in London. DEMOCRACY UNDER THREAT? The challenge facing Khama is more a delicate balancing act than a high-wire act, considering the weakness of the main opposition Botswana National Front and general agreement on the need to keep the country strong economically and in good standing internationally, analysts said.Khama, the son of former President Seretse Khama, is expected to retain Finance Minister Baldezi Gaolathe, who has won praise for managing the economy.But the BDP, which has won every election since independence from Britain in 1966, has come under fire recently over its human rights record and commitment to democracy.Concerns about Khama are particularly acute given his history in the military.Botswana’s government found itself under sharp international scrutiny last year when the country’s highest court ruled it had illegally forced its San Bushmen off their ancestral lands and said they should be allowed to return home.The government has since placed conditions on the rights of the Bushmen to return to the Kalahari, angering rights groups.Opposition parties and civil society groups also claim that Mogae’s administration has failed to translate economic growth into a better life for many Botswanans who remain mired in poverty and devastated by high HIV-AIDS rates.Some observers expect Khama to redirect more of the country’s vast diamond revenues to the poor ahead of the election and alter the controversial treatment of the San, Africa’s last hunter-gatherers.”The (Bushmen) issue has been a thorn in Botswana’s side and he may need to rethink the policy on that,” Zondi said.”He may also try to offer new ways of dealing with the windfall from mining and to reach out to opponents who think he is bringing in the military by the back door.”Nampa-Reuters