Big Brother Africa And The Namibian Elections

HOW can one compare an important national event such as elections to trivia like Big Brother Africa? Well, I see some striking similarities between the two. How do they compare?

My brother’s wife, who is an enthusiastic aficionado of the Big Brother programme and who, like so many others, is always glued to the TV every evening since this so-called ‘big revolution’ started on Sunday, tells me that this year’s prize is US$200 000 for the winner. So the stakes are high and the competition is likely to be highly contested during the coming three months. And like in all games there are going to be winners and losers.Our elections seem to take a similar shade and shape. It must therefore be seen in similar terms, at least this year. These elections are going to be different. First, we have the so-called ‘born-frees’ who will be voting for the first time and have a different take on the politics of the day unlike some of us who have a different experience. Then there are a number of new kids in town – RDP, APP and DPN – which are also trying to run away with the big prize or at least spoil the party. And the stakes, just like in Big Brother, are very high. And the Namibian electorate, just like the TV audiences watching the ‘big revolution’ across Africa, will be entertained by a hosts of political characters all vying for the big prize in the form of parliamentary seats. And we have a good three months also in which we will be entertained on the political front. Manifestos will be distributed, meetings held across the length and breadth of Namibia, speeches will be made and the actors will howl accusations at one another. Every participant would try to out-manoeuvre others in this game of politics – in a Machiavellian style if you like. This is all going to be entertaining stuff for the political audience. One wishes these would be staged live on NBC TV like the Americans do. But this tradition of live debate didn’t take root here because during those early years some politicians who were not so astute felt that they could not, for example, face the likes of Moses Katjiuongua in a face-to-face debate aired live on the national TV.But who is going to be the winners and losers in these games – during the Big Brother revolution and the Namibian elections? The simple answer is that we don’t know – especially in the case of Big Brother. In the case of the Namibian elections, one can make some fairly general predictions, based on past experience, that the ruling party will still come out ‘victorious’ – to use their favourite phrase. But a caveat is needed here. After all, we are dealing with African politics. It’s always a hazardous business to predict African politics and one does so at one’s own risk.But let me quickly contradict myself here to say that even though Swapo is going to win the elections it is at the same time going to be the biggest loser. What do I mean? There are going to be serious inroads into Swapo’s traditional political support base. The RDP is definitely going to take a good chunk of the votes from the so-called four ‘O’ regions. This is a good thing because, hopefully, it will de-tribalise politics in that part of the country. As it stands now, Swapo behaves as if it actually owns the voters in those four regions and that’s perhaps explains why there is much fighting between the RDP and Swapo there as opposed to other regions. The ruling party’s political fort is now penetrable and maybe it needs to hire more ‘security guards’ to protect it.But that’s not the end of trouble for the ruling party. Two other new parties, the APP and DPN, are also in the run for the big prize – call them tribal parties if you like. But I think they were born out of a need to address and articulate serious regional issues that have been neglected over the years. The culprit here is, of course, Swapo. Just listen to this SMS that appeared in Tuesday paper: ‘How should we in the South interpret the Swapo Party list? Lucia Basson 56, Willem Konjore 67, Ida Hoffman 71, Hansina Christiaan 72, Marlene Mungunda 63?’ So those who would vote for these parties would mainly come from disgruntled Swapo members. Thus, this year’s election, just like its Big Brother counterpart, is not going to be easy. There is no clean sweep for Swapo this time and I’m sure those who are down on the party’s list must be sweating, even in their air-conditioned offices and cars. In any case, after three long months, the Big Brother audience and the Namibian voters will once again retreat into their usual social and political boredom.