Bad losers may prove to be Congo election spoilers

Congo’s historic elections have raised hopes for peace in a nation scarred by war, but bad losers could spoil the country’s bid for lasting democracy.

Democratic Republic of Congo’s first free multi-party polls in more than four decades went ahead peacefully and without major hitches on Sunday in the most complex and costly electoral operation ever organised by the United Nations. But while international leaders and foreign observers hailed the vote as a historic chance to rebuild a mineral-rich but crippled giant located at the heart of Africa, they were bracing for what could be a turbulent election aftermath.As counting of the millions of ballots went ahead across the vast, former Belgian colony, some initial returns indicated a strong showing for President Joseph Kabila, especially in the east.This raised fears of a backlash from his political rivals.On the eve of voting, leading presidential hopefuls and former rebel warlords Jean-Pierre Bemba and Azarias Ruberwa denounced “irregularities” and indicated they would not accept an election “parody” if they felt the process was unfair.Analysts saw this as a veiled threat that they could challenge the election results – expected within three weeks – and so threaten the fragile internationally brokered peace process that ended Congo’s 1998-2003 war.Both men have served as vice-presidents in the interim post-war government.”They are already setting themselves up to criticise …During the transition period, they had a piece of the pie, now they could be losers,” said Jason Stearns, a Congo expert at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group think tank.He believed a possible outright first round election win for Kabila risked triggering violent protests by Bemba’s followers and other opposition supporters in Kinshasa and the west.”There’s a real danger of urban unrest,” Stearns said.Bemba, leader of the former Ugandan-backed rebel group, Movement for the Liberation of Congo, showed he could stir Kinshasa’s streets last week when his rioting supporters looted a church and torched buildings.At least six people were killed.’CHOPPY WATERS’ Over 17 000 UN peacekeepers backed by 1 100 European Union troops kept the peace in Sunday’s polls.Although some polling stations were destroyed in one opposition stronghold, fears of attacks by eastern rebels and militias did not materialise.If no candidate gains more than 50 percent from Sunday’s voting, which also included parliamentary polls, a second round between the two frontrunners will be held on October 29.A run-off would take place at the same time as provincial elections and a new national government might only be installed as late as December or January.This could mean months of uncertainty.”We will be in choppy waters,” one western ambassador said.Analysts said controlling potential “spoilers” would need firm international political and military pressure, backed by influential local actors like the Catholic Church.They believed that neighbours Rwanda and Uganda, major players in Congo’s last war, would stay out of a new internal conflict, so depriving troublemakers of regional godfathers.”Congo is not a stabilised country.But if there is enough mediation, it should be containable,” said Pierre Antoine Braud, a Sub-Sahara expert with the EU’s Institute of Security Studies.Ordinary Congolese, tired of years of war and suffering, seemed anxious for peace.”The losers will have to accept the outcome …(they) should just work for the good of the country,” said Guy Kakule (37), a mechanic from Bunia in the east.Some observers said the world could not afford to allow Congo to slip back into conflict.”After all the effort and money put in by the international community, if all this fails, Congo may be headed for partition,” the Western ambassador said.Nampa-Reuters * Additional reporting by Dan WallisBut while international leaders and foreign observers hailed the vote as a historic chance to rebuild a mineral-rich but crippled giant located at the heart of Africa, they were bracing for what could be a turbulent election aftermath.As counting of the millions of ballots went ahead across the vast, former Belgian colony, some initial returns indicated a strong showing for President Joseph Kabila, especially in the east.This raised fears of a backlash from his political rivals.On the eve of voting, leading presidential hopefuls and former rebel warlords Jean-Pierre Bemba and Azarias Ruberwa denounced “irregularities” and indicated they would not accept an election “parody” if they felt the process was unfair.Analysts saw this as a veiled threat that they could challenge the election results – expected within three weeks – and so threaten the fragile internationally brokered peace process that ended Congo’s 1998-2003 war.Both men have served as vice-presidents in the interim post-war government.”They are already setting themselves up to criticise …During the transition period, they had a piece of the pie, now they could be losers,” said Jason Stearns, a Congo expert at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group think tank.He believed a possible outright first round election win for Kabila risked triggering violent protests by Bemba’s followers and other opposition supporters in Kinshasa and the west.”There’s a real danger of urban unrest,” Stearns said.Bemba, leader of the former Ugandan-backed rebel group, Movement for the Liberation of Congo, showed he could stir Kinshasa’s streets last week when his rioting supporters looted a church and torched buildings.At least six people were killed.’CHOPPY WATERS’ Over 17 000 UN peacekeepers backed by 1 100 European Union troops kept the peace in Sunday’s polls.Although some polling stations were destroyed in one opposition stronghold, fears of attacks by eastern rebels and militias did not materialise.If no candidate gains more than 50 percent from Sunday’s voting, which also included parliamentary polls, a second round between the two frontrunners will be held on October 29.A run-off would take place at the same time as provincial elections and a new national government might only be installed as late as December or January.This could mean months of uncertainty.”We will be in choppy waters,” one western ambassador said.Analysts said controlling potential “spoilers” would need firm international political and military pressure, backed by influential local actors like the Catholic Church.They believed that neighbours Rwanda and Uganda, major players in Congo’s last war, would stay out of a new internal conflict, so depriving troublemakers of regional godfathers.”Congo is not a stabilised country.But if there is enough mediation, it should be containable,” said Pierre Antoine Braud, a Sub-Sahara expert with the EU’s Institute of Security Studies.Ordinary Congolese, tired of years of war and suffering, seemed anxious for peace.”The losers will have to accept the outcome …(they) should just work for the good of the country,” said Guy Kakule (37), a mechanic from Bunia in the east.Some observers said the world could not afford to allow Congo to slip back into conflict.”After all the effort and money put in by the international community, if all this fails, Congo may be headed for partition,” the Western ambassador said.Nampa-Reuters * Additional reporting by Dan Wallis